Implications of Drought and Ranavirus on an Amphibian Community in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park

The Great Smoky Mountains National Park is an epicenter of amphibian biodiversity in North America. Over the last 18 years, amphibian die-off events due to the pathogen, ranavirus, have been documented at Gourley Pond in the Cades Cove region of the Park. The goal of my study was to determine if ranavirus was present and having negative impacts on the Gourley Pond amphibian community. During my study (2016 – 2017), a significant drought occurred, allowing me to investigate possible interactions between ranavirus and drought. In 2016, I documented ranavirus persisting in three post-metamorphic amphibian species (Lithobates sylvaticus = 8.9%; Ambystoma maculatum = 1.6%, and Notophthalmus viridescens = 1.2%); however, after extended drought, ranavirus was not detected in 2017 despite extensive sampling. The drought conditions resulted in an insufficient hydroperiod for larval development of several amphibian species, and nearly complete recruitment failure both years. I documented a 39 – 99% decrease in catch-per-unit effort for five common amphibian species between 2016 and 2017. My results provide evidence that ranavirus can persist in the post-metamorphic amphibian community; however, if the pathogen is not amplified in the aquatic environment by highly susceptible larvae, its prevalence may drop below ecologically relevant levels after one year of wetland drying. My study also found that insufficient hydroperiod at Gourley Pond could be having negative impacts on the amphibian community. If these conditions persist, the U.S. National Park Service (NPS) should consider implementing conservation strategies which extend the hydroperiod at Gourley Pond, such as installing wetland liners or diverting nearby Sea Branch to the site. At a minimum, I recommend low-intensity monitoring of the hydroperiod, amphibian community, and ranavirus prevalence to inform future management decisions. I also found public visitation to Gourley Pond is high (ca. 10 trail passes per day), suggesting that humans could play a role in translocating ranavirus from the site if the pathogen re-emerges. If ranavirus is detected in the future at Gourley Pond, the NPS should consider informative signage about the pathogen and restricting access to the site

Frequency-dependent transmission of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans in eastern newts

Transmission is the fundamental process whereby pathogens infect their hosts and spread through populations, and can be characterized using mathematical functions. The functional form of transmission for emerging pathogens can determine pathogen impacts on host populations and can inform the efficacy of disease management strategies. By directly measuring transmission between infected and susceptible adult eastern newts (Notophthalmus viridescens) in aquatic mesocosms, we identified the most plausible transmission function for the emerging amphibian fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal). Although we considered a range of possible transmission functions, we found that Bsal transmission was best explained by pure frequency dependence. We observed that >90% of susceptible newts became infected within 17 days post‐exposure to an infected newt across a range of host densities and initial infection prevalence treatments. Under these conditions, we estimated R(0) = 4.9 for Bsal in an eastern newt population. Our results suggest that Bsal has the capability of driving eastern newt populations to extinction and that managing host density may not be an effective management strategy. Intervention strategies that prevent Bsal introduction or increase host resistance or tolerance to infection may be more effective. Our results add to the growing empirical evidence that transmission of wildlife pathogens can saturate and be functionally frequency‐dependent

Conservation risk of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans to endemic lungless salamanders

The emerging fungal pathogen, Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal ), is a significant conservation threat to salamander biodiversity in Europe, although its potential to affect North American species is poorly understood. We tested the susceptibility of two genera (Eurycea and Pseudotriton ) and three populations of lungless salamanders (Plethodontidae ) to Bsal . All species became infected with Bsal and two (Pseudotriton ruber and Eurycea wilderae ) developed chytridiomycosis. We also documented that susceptibility of E. wilderae differed among populations. Regardless of susceptibility, all species reduced feeding when exposed to Bsal at the highest zoospore dose, and P. ruber and one population of E. wilderae used cover objects less. Our results indicate that Bsal invasion in eastern North America could have significant negative impacts on endemic lungless salamander populations. Future conservation efforts should include surveillance for Bsal in the wild and in captivity, and championing legislation that requires and subsidizes pathogen‐free trade of amphibians

Conservation risk of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans to endemic lungless salamanders

The emerging fungal pathogen, Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal), is a significant conservation threat to salamander biodiversity in Europe, although its potential to affect North American species is poorly understood. We tested the susceptibility of two genera (Eurycea and Pseudotriton) and three populations of lungless salamanders (Plethodontidae) to Bsal. All species became infected with Bsal and two (Pseudotriton ruber and Eurycea wilderae) developed chytridiomycosis. We also documented that susceptibility of E. wilderae differed among populations. Regardless of susceptibility, all species reduced feeding when exposed to Bsal at the highest zoospore dose, and P. ruber and one population of E. wilderae used cover objects less. Our results indicate that Bsal invasion in eastern North America could have significant negative impacts on endemic lungless salamander populations. Future conservation efforts should include surveillance for Bsal in the wild and in captivity, and championing legislation that requires and subsidizes pathogen-free trade of amphibians

Mothers after gestational diabetes in Australia Diabetes Prevention Program (MAGDA-DPP) post-natal intervention: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Background:Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is defined as glucose intolerance with its onset or first recognition during pregnancy. Post-GDM women have a life-time risk exceeding 70% of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Lifestyle modifications reduce the incidence of T2DM by up to 58% for high-risk individuals.Methods/Design:The Mothers After Gestational Diabetes in Australia Diabetes Prevention Program (MAGDA-DPP) is a randomized controlled trial aiming to assess the effectiveness of a structured diabetes prevention intervention for post-GDM women. This trial has an intervention group participating in a diabetes prevention program (DPP), and a control group receiving usual care from their general practitioners during the same time period. The 12-month intervention comprises an individual session followed by five group sessions at two-week intervals, and two follow-up telephone calls. A total of 574 women will be recruited, with 287 in each arm. The women will undergo blood tests, anthropometric measurements, and self-reported health status, diet, physical activity, quality of life, depression, risk perception and healthcare service usage, at baseline and 12 months. At completion, primary outcome (changes in diabetes risk) and secondary outcome (changes in psychosocial and quality of life measurements and in cardiovascular disease risk factors) will be assessed in both groups.Discussion:This study aims to show whether MAGDA-DPP leads to a reduction in diabetes risk for post-GDM women. The characteristics that predict intervention completion and improvement in clinical and behavioral measures will be useful for further development of DPPs for this population.</span

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes

The Role of Pre- and Postnatal Timing of Family Risk Factors on Child Behavior at 36 months

Children growing up in disharmonious families with anxious/depressed mothers are at risk for emotional and behavioral difficulties, however whether these associations reflect postnatal environment, prenatal exposure, or an overall liability is still unclear. This study used prospectively collected data from 24,259 participants of the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study (MoBa). Mothers reported on anxiety/depression and family disharmony twice in pregnancy and twice post pregnancy, as well as on their child’s physical aggression and crying behavior at age 36 months. First, results from an autoregressive cross-lagged model showed a substantial stability in both maternal anxiety/depression and family disharmony from pregnancy to 18 months postnatal, but there was no indication that family disharmony led to maternal anxiety/depression, or the other way around. Second, structural equation models further suggests that the main risk derived from an overall liability, that is, a lasting effect of family risks that spanned the two time periods

Implementation salvage experiences from the Melbourne diabetes prevention study

Background Many public health interventions based on apparently sound evidence from randomised controlled trials encounter difficulties when being scaled up within health systems. Even under the best of circumstances, implementation is exceedingly difficult. In this paper we will describe the implementation salvage experiences from the Melbourne Diabetes Prevention Study, which is a randomised controlled trial of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness nested in the state-wide Life! Taking Action on Diabetes program in Victoria, Australia.Discussion The Melbourne Diabetes Prevention Study sits within an evolving larger scale implementation project, the Life! program. Changes that occurred during the roll-out of that program had a direct impact on the process of conducting this trial. The issues and methods of recovery the study team encountered were conceptualised using an implementation salvage strategies framework. The specific issues the study team came across included continuity of the state funding for Life! program and structural changes to the Life! program which consisted of adjustments to eligibility criteria, referral processes, structure and content, as well as alternative program delivery for different population groups. Staff turnover, recruitment problems, setting and venue concerns, availability of potential participants and participant characteristics were also identified as evaluation roadblocks. Each issue and corresponding salvage strategy is presented.Summary The experiences of conducting such a novel trial as the preliminary Melbourne Diabetes Prevention Study have been invaluable. The lessons learnt and knowledge gained will inform the future execution of this trial in the coming years. We anticipate that these results will also be beneficial to other researchers conducting similar trials in the public health field. We recommend that researchers openly share their experiences, barriers and challenges when conducting randomised controlled trials and implementation research. We encourage them to describe the factors that may have inhibited or enhanced the desired outcomes so that the academic community can learn and expand the research foundation of implementation salvage.<br /

What’s in a price? the American raw cotton market in Liverpool and the Anglo-American war

This article argues that an embryonic futures market was present in Liverpool during the Anglo-American war. The analysis of a previously unseen dataset of printed Prices Currents has facilitated not only a price series of raw cotton prices, but an in-depth analysis of the ‘construction’ of those raw cotton prices. By positing a definition of.an embryonic futures market and then analysing each of the features of a such a market in turn, this study demonstrates the existence of an embryonic futures market in early nineteenth-century Liverpool