Modeling Trap-Awareness and Related Phenomena in Capture-Recapture Studies

Trap-awareness and related phenomena whereby successive capture events are not independent is a feature of the majority of capture-recapture studies. This phenomenon was up to now difficult to incorporate in open population models and most authors have chosen to neglect it although this may have damaging consequences. Focusing on the situation where animals exhibit a trap response at the occasion immediately following one where they have been trapped but revert to their original naïve state if they are missed once, we show that trap-dependence is more naturally viewed as a state transition and is amenable to the current models of capture-recapture. This approach has the potential to accommodate lasting or progressively waning trap effects

Ras/Raf/MEK/ERK and PI3K/PTEN/Akt/mTOR Inhibitors: Rationale and Importance to Inhibiting These Pathways in Human Health

The Ras/Raf/MEK/ERK and PI3K/PTEN/Akt/mTOR cascades are often activated by genetic alterations in upstream signaling molecules such as receptor tyrosine kinases (RTK). Integral components of these pathways, Ras, B-Raf, PI3K, and PTEN are also activated/inactivated by mutations. These pathways have profound effects on proliferative, apoptotic and differentiation pathways. Dysregulation of these pathways can contribute to chemotherapeutic drug resistance, proliferation of cancer initiating cells (CICs) and premature aging. This review will evaluate more recently described potential uses of MEK, PI3K, Akt and mTOR inhibitors in the proliferation of malignant cells, suppression of CICs, cellular senescence and prevention of aging. Ras/Raf/MEK/ERK and Ras/PI3K/PTEN/Akt/mTOR pathways play key roles in the regulation of normal and malignant cell growth. Inhibitors targeting these pathways have many potential uses from suppression of cancer, proliferative diseases as well as aging

ICAR: endoscopic skull‐base surgery

n/

Bayesian estimation of a cancer population by capture-recapture with individual capture heterogeneity and small sample

BACKGROUND: Cancer incidence and prevalence estimates are necessary to inform health policy, to predict public health impact and to identify etiological factors. Registers have been used to estimate the number of cancer cases. To be reliable and useful, cancer registry data should be complete. Capture-recapture is a method for estimating the number of cases missed, originally developed in ecology to estimate the size of animal populations. Capture recapture methods in cancer epidemiology involve modelling the overlap between lists of individuals using log-linear models. These models rely on assumption of independence of sources and equal catchability between individuals, unlikely to be satisfied in cancer population as severe cases are more likely to be captured than simple cases. METHODS: To estimate cancer population and completeness of cancer registry, we applied M(th) models that rely on parameters that influence capture as time of capture (t) and individual heterogeneity (h) and compared results to the ones obtained with classical log-linear models and sample coverage approach. For three sources collecting breast and colorectal cancer cases (Histopathological cancer registry, hospital Multidisciplinary Team Meetings, and cancer screening programmes), individual heterogeneity is suspected in cancer population due to age, gender, screening history or presence of metastases. Individual heterogeneity is hardly analysed as classical log-linear models usually pool it with between-“list” dependence. We applied Bayesian Model Averaging which can be applied with small sample without asymptotic assumption, contrary to the maximum likelihood estimate procedure. RESULTS: Cancer population estimates were based on the results of the M(h) model, with an averaged estimate of 803 cases of breast cancer and 521 cases of colorectal cancer. In the log-linear model, estimates were of 791 cases of breast cancer and 527 cases of colorectal cancer according to the retained models (729 and 481 histological cases, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: We applied M(th) models and Bayesian population estimation to small sample of a cancer population. Advantage of M(th) models applied to cancer datasets, is the ability to explore individual factors associated with capture heterogeneity, as equal capture probability assumption is unlikely. M(th) models and Bayesian population estimation are well-suited for capture-recapture in a heterogeneous cancer population. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12874-015-0029-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Support for a rare pattern of temperature-dependent sex determination in archaic reptiles: evidence from two species of tuatara (Sphenodon)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The sex of many reptiles is determined by the temperature an embryo experiences during its development. Three patterns of temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) have been defined, but one pattern where only males are produced above an upper temperature threshold (Type IB) is controversial. Here we report new data on the relationship between constant temperature incubation and sexual phenotype in two species of tuatara (<it>Sphenodon</it>), archaic reptiles of enormous zoological significance as the sole representatives of a once widespread reptilian order.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In both species, the pattern observed with constant incubation temperatures from 18 to 23°C (or 24°C) supported a female→male (FM or Type IB) pattern of TSD: in <it>Sphenodon guntheri </it>males were produced above a pivotal temperature of 21.6°C, and in <it>S. punctatus </it>(unnamed subspecies on Stephens Island, Cook Strait), males were produced above a pivotal temperature of 22.0°C. The pivotal temperatures and scaling parameters differed between species (p < 0.001). The thermosensitive period (TSP), where temperature influences gonad morphogenesis, occurs between 0.25 and 0.55 of embryonic development. While it is possible that the more common female→male→female (FMF or Type II) pattern exists, with a second pivotal temperature above 23–24°C, we review several lines of evidence to the contrary. Most notably, we show that in <it>S. punctatus</it>, the warmest natural nests during the TSP produce predominantly males.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>An FM pattern of TSD could be currently adaptive in promoting sexual size dimorphism in tuatara. However, an FM pattern has particularly serious consequences for <it>S. guntheri </it>because current patterns of global warming could exacerbate the male bias already present in the relic population.</p