Control procedures and estimators of the false discovery rate and their application in low-dimensional settings: an empirical investigation

Background: When many (up to millions) of statistical tests are conducted in discovery set analyses such as genome-wide association studies (GWAS), approaches controlling family-wise error rate (FWER) or false discovery rate (FDR) are required to reduce the number of false positive decisions. Some methods were specifically developed in the context of high-dimensional settings and partially rely on the estimation of the proportion of true null hypotheses. However, these approaches are also applied in low-dimensional settings such as replication set analyses that might be restricted to a small number of specific hypotheses. The aim of this study was to compare different approaches in low-dimensional settings using (a) real data from the CKDGen Consortium and (b) a simulation study. Results: In both application and simulation FWER approaches were less powerful compared to FDR control methods, whether a larger number of hypotheses were tested or not. Most powerful was the q-value method. However, the specificity of this method to maintain true null hypotheses was especially decreased when the number of tested hypotheses was small. In this low-dimensional situation, estimation of the proportion of true null hypotheses was biased. Conclusions: The results highlight the importance of a sizeable data set for a reliable estimation of the proportion of true null hypotheses. Consequently, methods relying on this estimation should only be applied in high-dimensional settings. Furthermore, if the focus lies on testing of a small number of hypotheses such as in replication settings, FWER methods rather than FDR methods should be preferred to maintain high specificity

Investigating the Causal Relationship of C-Reactive Protein with 32 Complex Somatic and Psychiatric Outcomes: A Large-Scale Cross-Consortium Mendelian Randomization Study

BACKGROUND: C-reactive protein (CRP) is associated with immune, cardiometabolic, and psychiatric traits and diseases. Yet it is inconclusive whether these associations are causal. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We performed Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses using two genetic risk scores (GRSs) as instrumental variables (IVs). The first GRS consisted of four single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the CRP gene (GRSCRP), and the second consisted of 18 SNPs that were significantly associated with CRP levels in the largest genome-wide association study (GWAS) to date (GRSGWAS). To optimize power, we used summary statistics from GWAS consortia and tested the association of these two GRSs with 32 complex somatic and psychiatric outcomes, with up to 123,865 participants per outcome from populations of European ancestry. We performed heterogeneity tests to disentangle the pleiotropic effect of IVs. A Bonferroni-corrected significance level of less than 0.0016 was considered statistically significant. An observed p-value equal to or less than 0.05 was considered nominally significant evidence for a potential causal association, yet to be confirmed. The strengths (F-statistics) of the IVs were 31.92-3,761.29 and 82.32-9,403.21 for GRSCRP and GRSGWAS, respectively. CRP GRSGWAS showed a statistically significant protective relationship of a 10% genetically elevated CRP level with the risk of schizophrenia (odds ratio [OR] 0.86 [95% CI 0.79-0.94]; p < 0.001). We validated this finding with individual-level genotype data from the schizophrenia GWAS (OR 0.96 [95% CI 0.94-0.98]; p < 1.72 × 10-6). Further, we found that a standardized CRP polygenic risk score (CRPPRS) at p-value thresholds of 1 × 10-4, 0.001, 0.01, 0.05, and 0.1 using individual-level data also showed a protective effect (OR < 1.00) against schizophrenia; the first CRPPRS (built of SNPs with p < 1 × 10-4) showed a statistically significant (p < 2.45 × 10-4) protective effect with an OR of 0.97 (95% CI 0.95-0.99). The CRP GRSGWAS showed that a 10% increase in genetically determined CRP level was significantly associated with coronary artery disease (OR 0.88 [95% CI 0.84-0.94]; p < 2.4 × 10-5) and was nominally associated with the risk of inflammatory bowel disease (OR 0.85 [95% CI 0.74-0.98]; p < 0.03), Crohn disease (OR 0.81 [95% CI 0.70-0.94]; p < 0.005), psoriatic arthritis (OR 1.36 [95% CI 1.00-1.84]; p < 0.049), knee osteoarthritis (OR 1.17 [95% CI 1.01-1.36]; p < 0.04), and bipolar disorder (OR 1.21 [95% CI 1.05-1.40]; p < 0.007) and with an increase of 0.72 (95% CI 0.11-1.34; p < 0.02) mm Hg in systolic blood pressure, 0.45 (95% CI 0.06-0.84; p < 0.02) mm Hg in diastolic blood pressure, 0.01 ml/min/1.73 m2 (95% CI 0.003-0.02; p < 0.005) in estimated glomerular filtration rate from serum creatinine, 0.01 g/dl (95% CI 0.0004-0.02; p < 0.04) in serum albumin level, and 0.03 g/dl (95% CI 0.008-0.05; p < 0.009) in serum protein level. However, after adjustment for heterogeneity, neither GRS showed a significant effect of CRP level (at p < 0.0016) on any of these outcomes, including coronary artery disease, nor on the other 20 complex outcomes studied. Our study has two potential limitations: the limited variance explained by our genetic instruments modeling CRP levels in blood and the unobserved bias introduced by the use of summary statistics in our MR analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Genetically elevated CRP levels showed a significant potentially protective causal relationship with risk of schizophrenia. We observed nominal evidence at an observed p < 0.05 using either GRSCRP or GRSGWAS-with persistence after correction for heterogeneity-for a causal relationship of elevated CRP levels with psoriatic osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, knee osteoarthritis, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, serum albumin, and bipolar disorder. These associations remain yet to be confirmed. We cannot verify any causal effect of CRP level on any of the other common somatic and neuropsychiatric outcomes investigated in the present study. This implies that interventions that lower CRP level are unlikely to result in decreased risk for the majority of common complex outcomes

Investigating the Causal Relationship of C-Reactive Protein with 32 Complex Somatic and Psychiatric Outcomes: A Large-Scale Cross-Consortium Mendelian Randomization Study.

BACKGROUND: C-reactive protein (CRP) is associated with immune, cardiometabolic, and psychiatric traits and diseases. Yet it is inconclusive whether these associations are causal. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We performed Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses using two genetic risk scores (GRSs) as instrumental variables (IVs). The first GRS consisted of four single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the CRP gene (GRSCRP), and the second consisted of 18 SNPs that were significantly associated with CRP levels in the largest genome-wide association study (GWAS) to date (GRSGWAS). To optimize power, we used summary statistics from GWAS consortia and tested the association of these two GRSs with 32 complex somatic and psychiatric outcomes, with up to 123,865 participants per outcome from populations of European ancestry. We performed heterogeneity tests to disentangle the pleiotropic effect of IVs. A Bonferroni-corrected significance level of less than 0.0016 was considered statistically significant. An observed p-value equal to or less than 0.05 was considered nominally significant evidence for a potential causal association, yet to be confirmed. The strengths (F-statistics) of the IVs were 31.92-3,761.29 and 82.32-9,403.21 for GRSCRP and GRSGWAS, respectively. CRP GRSGWAS showed a statistically significant protective relationship of a 10% genetically elevated CRP level with the risk of schizophrenia (odds ratio [OR] 0.86 [95% CI 0.79-0.94]; p < 0.001). We validated this finding with individual-level genotype data from the schizophrenia GWAS (OR 0.96 [95% CI 0.94-0.98]; p < 1.72 × 10-6). Further, we found that a standardized CRP polygenic risk score (CRPPRS) at p-value thresholds of 1 × 10-4, 0.001, 0.01, 0.05, and 0.1 using individual-level data also showed a protective effect (OR < 1.00) against schizophrenia; the first CRPPRS (built of SNPs with p < 1 × 10-4) showed a statistically significant (p < 2.45 × 10-4) protective effect with an OR of 0.97 (95% CI 0.95-0.99). The CRP GRSGWAS showed that a 10% increase in genetically determined CRP level was significantly associated with coronary artery disease (OR 0.88 [95% CI 0.84-0.94]; p < 2.4 × 10-5) and was nominally associated with the risk of inflammatory bowel disease (OR 0.85 [95% CI 0.74-0.98]; p < 0.03), Crohn disease (OR 0.81 [95% CI 0.70-0.94]; p < 0.005), psoriatic arthritis (OR 1.36 [95% CI 1.00-1.84]; p < 0.049), knee osteoarthritis (OR 1.17 [95% CI 1.01-1.36]; p < 0.04), and bipolar disorder (OR 1.21 [95% CI 1.05-1.40]; p < 0.007) and with an increase of 0.72 (95% CI 0.11-1.34; p < 0.02) mm Hg in systolic blood pressure, 0.45 (95% CI 0.06-0.84; p < 0.02) mm Hg in diastolic blood pressure, 0.01 ml/min/1.73 m2 (95% CI 0.003-0.02; p < 0.005) in estimated glomerular filtration rate from serum creatinine, 0.01 g/dl (95% CI 0.0004-0.02; p < 0.04) in serum albumin level, and 0.03 g/dl (95% CI 0.008-0.05; p < 0.009) in serum protein level. However, after adjustment for heterogeneity, neither GRS showed a significant effect of CRP level (at p < 0.0016) on any of these outcomes, including coronary artery disease, nor on the other 20 complex outcomes studied. Our study has two potential limitations: the limited variance explained by our genetic instruments modeling CRP levels in blood and the unobserved bias introduced by the use of summary statistics in our MR analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Genetically elevated CRP levels showed a significant potentially protective causal relationship with risk of schizophrenia. We observed nominal evidence at an observed p < 0.05 using either GRSCRP or GRSGWAS-with persistence after correction for heterogeneity-for a causal relationship of elevated CRP levels with psoriatic osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, knee osteoarthritis, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, serum albumin, and bipolar disorder. These associations remain yet to be confirmed. We cannot verify any causal effect of CRP level on any of the other common somatic and neuropsychiatric outcomes investigated in the present study. This implies that interventions that lower CRP level are unlikely to result in decreased risk for the majority of common complex outcomes

SNP Prioritization Using a B ayesian Probability of Association

Prioritization is the process whereby a set of possible candidate genes or SNP s is ranked so that the most promising can be taken forward into further studies. In a genome‐wide association study, prioritization is usually based on the P ‐values alone, but researchers sometimes take account of external annotation information about the SNP s such as whether the SNP lies close to a good candidate gene. Using external information in this way is inherently subjective and is often not formalized, making the analysis difficult to reproduce. Building on previous work that has identified 14 important types of external information, we present an approximate B ayesian analysis that produces an estimate of the probability of association. The calculation combines four sources of information: the genome‐wide data, SNP information derived from bioinformatics databases, empirical SNP weights, and the researchers’ subjective prior opinions. The calculation is fast enough that it can be applied to millions of SNPS and although it does rely on subjective judgments, those judgments are made explicit so that the final SNP selection can be reproduced. We show that the resulting probability of association is intuitively more appealing than the P ‐value because it is easier to interpret and it makes allowance for the power of the study. We illustrate the use of the probability of association for SNP prioritization by applying it to a meta‐analysis of kidney function genome‐wide association studies and demonstrate that SNP selection performs better using the probability of association compared with P ‐values alone.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/96317/1/gepi21704.pd

Genome-Wide Association Study of Retinopathy in Individuals without Diabetes

10.1371/journal.pone.0054232PLoS ONE82

A Meta-analysis of Gene Expression Signatures of Blood Pressure and Hypertension

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have uncovered numerous genetic variants (SNPs) that are associated with blood pressure (BP). Genetic variants may lead to BP changes by acting on intermediate molecular phenotypes such as coded protein sequence or gene expression, which in turn affect BP variability. Therefore, characterizing genes whose expression is associated with BP may reveal cellular processes involved in BP regulation and uncover how transcripts mediate genetic and environmental effects on BP variability. A meta-analysis of results from six studies of global gene expression profiles of BP and hypertension in whole blood was performed in 7017 individuals who were not receiving antihypertensive drug treatment. We identified 34 genes that were differentially expressed in relation to BP (Bonferroni-corrected p<0.05). Among these genes, FOS and PTGS2 have been previously reported to be involved in BP-related processes; the others are novel. The top BP signature genes in aggregate explain 5%–9% of inter-individual variance in BP. Of note, rs3184504 in SH2B3, which was also reported in GWAS to be associated with BP, was found to be a trans regulator of the expression of 6 of the transcripts we found to be associated with BP (FOS, MYADM, PP1R15A, TAGAP, S100A10, and FGBP2). Gene set enrichment analysis suggested that the BP-related global gene expression changes include genes involved in inflammatory response and apoptosis pathways. Our study provides new insights into molecular mechanisms underlying BP regulation, and suggests novel transcriptomic markers for the treatment and prevention of hypertension.Peer reviewe

New genetic loci link adipose and insulin biology to body fat distribution

Body fat distribution is a heritable trait and a well-established predictor of adverse metabolic outcomes, independent of overall adiposity. To increase our understanding of the genetic basis of body fat distribution and its molecular links to cardiometabolic traits, here we conduct genome-wide association meta-analyses of traits related to waist and hip circumferences in up to 224,459 individuals. We identify 49 loci (33 new) associated with waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index (BMI), and an additional 19 loci newly associated with related waist and hip circumference measures (P < 5 7 10(-8)). In total, 20 of the 49 waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI loci show significant sexual dimorphism, 19 of which display a stronger effect in women. The identified loci were enriched for genes expressed in adipose tissue and for putative regulatory elements in adipocytes. Pathway analyses implicated adipogenesis, angiogenesis, transcriptional regulation and insulin resistance as processes affecting fat distribution, providing insight into potential pathophysiological mechanisms

Serum iron level and kidney function: a Mendelian randomization study.

Background: Iron depletion is a known consequence of chronic kidney disease (CKD), but there is contradicting epidemiological evidence on whether iron itself affects kidney function and whether its effect is protective or detrimental in the general population. While epidemiological studies tend to be affected by confounding and reverse causation, Mendelian randomization (MR) can provide unconfounded estimates of causal effects by using genes as instruments. Methods: We performed an MR study of the effect of serum iron levels on estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), using genetic variants known to be associated with iron. MR estimates of the effect of iron on eGFR were derived based on the association of each variant with iron and eGFR from two large genome-wide meta-analyses on 48 978 and 74 354 individuals. We performed a similar MR analysis for ferritin, which measures iron stored in the body, using variants associated with ferritin. Results: A combined MR estimate across all variants showed a 1.3% increase in eGFR per standard deviation increase in iron (95% confidence interval 0.4–2.1%; P = 0.004). The results for ferritin were consistent with those for iron. Secondary MR analyses of the effects of iron and ferritin on CKD did not show significant associations but had very low statistical power. Conclusions: Our study suggests a protective effect of iron on kidney function in the general population. Further research is required to confirm this causal association, investigate it in study populations at higher risk of CKD and explore its underlying mechanism of action

Genetic invalidation of Lp-PLA(2) as a therapeutic target : Large-scale study of five functional Lp-PLA(2)-lowering alleles

Aims: Darapladib, a potent inhibitor of lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A(2) (Lp-PLA(2)), has not reduced risk of cardiovascular disease outcomes in recent randomized trials. We aimed to test whether Lp-PLA(2) enzyme activity is causally relevant to coronary heart disease. Methods: In 72,657 patients with coronary heart disease and 110,218 controls in 23 epidemiological studies, we genotyped five functional variants: four rare loss-of-function mutations (c. 109+2T> C (rs142974898), Arg82His (rs144983904), Val279Phe (rs76863441), Gln287Ter (rs140020965)) and one common modest-impact variant (Val379Ala (rs1051931)) in PLA2G7, the gene encoding Lp-PLA(2). We supplemented de-novo genotyping with information on a further 45,823 coronary heart disease patients and 88,680 controls in publicly available databases and other previous studies. We conducted a systematic review of randomized trials to compare effects of darapladib treatment on soluble Lp-PLA(2) activity, conventional cardiovascular risk factors, and coronary heart disease risk with corresponding effects of Lp-PLA(2)-lowering alleles. Results: Lp-PLA(2) activity was decreased by 64% (p = 2.4 x 10 (-25)) with carriage of any of the four loss-of-function variants, by 45% (p<10 (-300)) for every allele inherited at Val279Phe, and by 2.7% (p = 1.9 x 10 (-12)) for every allele inherited at Val379Ala. Darapladib 160 mg once-daily reduced Lp-PLA(2) activity by 65% (p<10 (-300)). Causal risk ratios for coronary heart disease per 65% lower Lp-PLA(2) activity were: 0.95 (0.88-1.03) with Val279Phe; 0.92 (0.74-1.16) with carriage of any loss-of-function variant; 1.01 (0.68-1.51) with Val379Ala; and 0.95 (0.89-1.02) with darapladib treatment. Conclusions: In a large-scale human genetic study, none of a series of Lp-PLA(2)-lowering alleles was related to coronary heart disease risk, suggesting that Lp-PLA(2) is unlikely to be a causal risk factor.Peer reviewe