Validation of an algorithm using inpatient electronic health records to determine the presence and severity of cirrhosis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma in England: an observational study.

OBJECTIVES:Outcomes in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are determined by both cancer characteristics and liver disease severity. This study aims to validate the use of inpatient electronic health records to determine liver disease severity from treatment and procedure codes. DESIGN:Retrospective observational study. SETTING:Two National Health Service (NHS) cancer centres in England. PARTICIPANTS:339 patients with a new diagnosis of HCC between 2007 and 2016. MAIN OUTCOME:Using inpatient electronic health records, we have developed an optimised algorithm to identify cirrhosis and determine liver disease severity in a population with HCC. The diagnostic accuracy of the algorithm was optimised using clinical records from one NHS Trust and it was externally validated using anonymised data from another centre. RESULTS:The optimised algorithm has a positive predictive value (PPV) of 99% for identifying cirrhosis in the derivation cohort, with a sensitivity of 86% (95% CI 82% to 90%) and a specificity of 98% (95% CI 96% to 100%). The sensitivity for detecting advanced stage cirrhosis is 80% (95% CI 75% to 87%) and specificity is 98% (95% CI 96% to 100%), with a PPV of 89%. CONCLUSIONS:Our optimised algorithm, based on inpatient electronic health records, reliably identifies and stages cirrhosis in patients with HCC. This highlights the potential of routine health data in population studies to stratify patients with HCC according to liver disease severity

Antarctic geothermal heat flow: future research directions

Antarctic geothermal heat flow (GHF) affects the ice sheet temperature, determining how it slides and internally deforms, as well as the rheological behaviour of the lithosphere. However, GHF remains poorly constrained, with few borehole-derived estimates, and there are large discrepancies in currently available glaciological and geophysical estimates. This SCAR White Paper details current methods, discusses their challenges and limitations, and recommends key future directions in GHF research. We highlight the timely need for a more multidisciplinary and internationally-coordinated approach to tackle this complex problem

Mammographic density and ageing:A collaborative pooled analysis of cross-sectional data from 22 countries worldwide

BACKGROUND: Mammographic density (MD) is one of the strongest breast cancer risk factors. Its age-related characteristics have been studied in women in western countries, but whether these associations apply to women worldwide is not known. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We examined cross-sectional differences in MD by age and menopausal status in over 11,000 breast-cancer-free women aged 35-85 years, from 40 ethnicity- and location-specific population groups across 22 countries in the International Consortium on Mammographic Density (ICMD). MD was read centrally using a quantitative method (Cumulus) and its square-root metrics were analysed using meta-analysis of group-level estimates and linear regression models of pooled data, adjusted for body mass index, reproductive factors, mammogram view, image type, and reader. In all, 4,534 women were premenopausal, and 6,481 postmenopausal, at the time of mammography. A large age-adjusted difference in percent MD (PD) between post- and premenopausal women was apparent (-0.46 cm [95% CI: -0.53, -0.39]) and appeared greater in women with lower breast cancer risk profiles; variation across population groups due to heterogeneity (I2) was 16.5%. Among premenopausal women, the √PD difference per 10-year increase in age was -0.24 cm (95% CI: -0.34, -0.14; I2 = 30%), reflecting a compositional change (lower dense area and higher non-dense area, with no difference in breast area). In postmenopausal women, the corresponding difference in √PD (-0.38 cm [95% CI: -0.44, -0.33]; I2 = 30%) was additionally driven by increasing breast area. The study is limited by different mammography systems and its cross-sectional rather than longitudinal nature. CONCLUSIONS: Declines in MD with increasing age are present premenopausally, continue postmenopausally, and are most pronounced over the menopausal transition. These effects were highly consistent across diverse groups of women worldwide, suggesting that they result from an intrinsic biological, likely hormonal, mechanism common to women. If cumulative breast density is a key determinant of breast cancer risk, younger ages may be the more critical periods for lifestyle modifications aimed at breast density and breast cancer risk reduction

Fractures in sub-Saharan Africa: epidemiology, economic impact and ethnography (Fractures-E3): study protocol

Background: The population of older adults is growing in sub-Saharan Africa. Ageing exponentially increases fragility fracture risk. Of all global regions, Africa is projected to observe the greatest increase in fragility fractures. Fractures cause pain, disability and sometimes death, and management is expensive, often requiring complex healthcare delivery. For countries to plan future healthcare services, understanding is needed of fracture epidemiology, associated health service costs and the currently available healthcare resources. Methods: The Fractures-E3 5-year mixed-methods research programme will investigate the epidemiology, economic impact, and treatment provision for fracture and wider musculoskeletal health in The Gambia, South Africa and Zimbabwe. These three countries are diverse in their geography, degree of urbanisation, maturity of health service infrastructure, and health profiles. The programme comprises five study types: (i) population-based cross-sectional studies to determine vertebral fracture prevalence. Secondary outcomes will include osteoarthritis and sarcopenia. Age- and sex-stratified household sampling will recruit 5030 adults aged 40 years and older; (ii) prospective cohort studies in adults aged 40 years and older will determine hip fracture incidence, associated risk factors, and outcomes over one year (e.g. mortality, disability, health-related quality of life); (iii) economic studies of direct health costs of hip fracture with projection modelling of future national health costs and cost-effectiveness analyses of different hip fracture care pathways; (iv) national surveys of hip fracture services (including traditional bonesetters in The Gambia); and (v) ethnographic studies of hip fracture care provision and experiences will understand fracture service pathways. Conclusions: Greater understanding of current and expected fracture burdens, fracture risk factors, and existing fracture care provision, is intended to inform national clinical guidelines, health service policy and planning and future health service development in sub-Saharan Africa.</ns4:p

International Consortium on Mammographic Density:methodology and population diversity captured across 22 countries

Mammographic density (MD) is a quantitative trait, measurable in all women, and is among the strongest markers of breast cancer risk. The population-based epidemiology of MD has revealed genetic, lifestyle and societal/environmental determinants, but studies have largely been conducted in women with similar westernized lifestyles living in countries with high breast cancer incidence rates. To benefit from the heterogeneity in risk factors and their combinations worldwide, we created an International Consortium on Mammographic Density (ICMD) to pool individual-level epidemiological and MD data from general population studies worldwide. ICMD aims to characterize determinants of MD more precisely, and to evaluate whether they are consistent across populations worldwide. We included 11755 women, from 27 studies in 22 countries, on whom individual-level risk factor data were pooled and original mammographic images were re-read for ICMD to obtain standardized comparable MD data. In the present article, we present (i) the rationale for this consortium; (ii) characteristics of the studies and women included; and (iii) study methodology to obtain comparable MD data from original re-read films. We also highlight the risk factor heterogeneity captured by such an effort and, thus, the unique insight the pooled study promises to offer through wider exposure ranges, different confounding structures and enhanced power for sub-group analyses

Pollinator-flower interactions in gardens during the covid 19 pandemic lockdown of 2020

During the main COVID-19 global pandemic lockdown period of 2020 an impromptu set of pollination ecologists came together via social media and personal contacts to carry out standardised surveys of the flower visits and plants in gardens. The surveys involved 67 rural, suburban and urban gardens, of various sizes, ranging from 61.18° North in Norway to 37.96° South in Australia, resulting in a data set of 25,174 rows, with each row being a unique interaction record for that date/site/plant species, and comprising almost 47,000 visits to flowers, as well as records of flowers that were not visited by pollinators, for over 1,000 species and varieties belonging to more than 460 genera and 96 plant families. The more than 650 species of flower visitors belong to 12 orders of invertebrates and four of vertebrates. In this first publication from the project, we present a brief description of the data and make it freely available for any researchers to use in the future, the only restriction being that they cite this paper in the first instance. The data generated from these global surveys will provide scientific evidence to help us understand the role that private gardens (in urban, rural and suburban areas) can play in conserving insect pollinators and identify management actions to enhance their potential