Challenges in Phase 4 post-licensure safety studies using real world data in the United States: Hepatitis B vaccine example

Post-licensure vaccine safety studies are essential to identify adverse events that may not have been detected in pre-licensure clinical trials and to address questions that arose during the pre-licensure phase. These studies are increasingly conducted using real-world data collected as part of routine health care delivery. However, design of post-licensure vaccine safety studies involves many pragmatic and scientific decisions, which must be made while balancing diverse stakeholder opinions. Challenges include selecting exposure and comparison groups, deciding on the most appropriate outcome, determining sample size and length of follow-up time, and other analytic considerations. As an example of this process and to inform other post-licensure vaccine safety studies in real-world settings, we discuss our experience with design of an FDA-required Phase 4 post-licensure safety study of a hepatitis B vaccine in a large integrated health care organization in the United States

Effectiveness of nirmatrelvir–ritonavir in preventing hospital admissions and deaths in people with COVID-19: a cohort study in a large US health-care system

BackgroundIn the USA, oral nirmatrelvir-ritonavir is authorised for use in patients aged 12 years or older with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 who are at risk of progression to severe disease and hospitalisation. We aimed to establish the effectiveness of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir in preventing hospital admissions and death in people with COVID-19 in an outpatient prescribing context in the USA.MethodsIn this matched observational outpatient cohort study in the Kaiser Permanente Southern California (CA, USA) health-care system, data were extracted from electronic health records of non-hospitalised patients aged 12 years or older who received a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test result (their index test) between April 8 and Oct 7, 2022, and had not received another positive test result within the preceding 90 days. We compared outcomes between people who received nirmatrelvir-ritonavir and those who did not receive nirmatrelvir-ritonavir by matching cases by date, age, sex, clinical status (including care received, the presence or absence of acute COVID-19 symptoms at testing, and time from symptom onset to testing), vaccination history, comorbidities, health-care seeking during the previous year, and BMI. Our primary endpoint was the estimated effectiveness of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir in preventing hospital admissions or death within 30 days of a positive test for SARS-CoV-2.Findings7274 nirmatrelvir-ritonavir recipients and 126 152 non-recipients with positive SARS-CoV-2 tests were included in our study. 5472 (75·2%) treatment recipients and 84 657 (67·1%) non-recipients were tested within 5 days of symptom onset. Nirmatrelvir-ritonavir had an overall estimated effectiveness of 53·6% (95% CI 6·6-77·0) in preventing hospital admission or death within 30 days of a positive test for SARS-CoV-2, which increased to 79·6% (33·9-93·8) when nirmatrelvir-ritonavir was dispensed within 5 days of symptom onset. Within the subgroup of patients tested within 5 days of symptom onset and whose treatment was dispensed on the day of their test, the estimated effectiveness of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir was 89·6% (50·2-97·8).InterpretationIn a setting with high levels of COVID-19 vaccine uptake, nirmatrelvir-ritonavir effectively reduced the risk of hospital admission or death within 30 days of a positive outpatient SARS-CoV-2 test.FundingUS Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and US National Institutes of Health

Durability of mRNA-1273 against COVID-19 in the time of Delta: Interim results from an observational cohort study.

BackgroundWe conducted a prospective cohort study at Kaiser Permanente Southern California to study the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of mRNA-1273 over time and during the emergence of the Delta variant.MethodsThe cohort for this planned interim analysis consisted of individuals aged ≥18 years receiving 2 doses of mRNA-1273 through June 2021, matched 1:1 to randomly selected unvaccinated individuals by age, sex, and race/ethnicity, with follow-up through September 2021. Outcomes were SARS-CoV-2 infection, and COVID-19 hospitalization and hospital death. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) comparing outcomes in the vaccinated and unvaccinated groups. Adjusted VE (%) was calculated as (1-aHR)x100. HRs and VEs were also estimated for SARS-CoV-2 infection by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and during the Delta period (June-September 2021). VE against SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 hospitalization was estimated at 0-Results927,004 recipients of 2 doses of mRNA-1273 were matched to 927,004 unvaccinated individuals. VE (95% CI) was 82.8% (82.2-83.3%) against SARS-CoV-2 infection, 96.1% (95.5-96.6%) against COVID-19 hospitalization, and 97.2% (94.8-98.4%) against COVID-19 hospital death. VE against SARS-CoV-2 infection was similar by age, sex, and race/ethnicity, and was 86.5% (84.8-88.0%) during the Delta period. VE against SARS-CoV-2 infection decreased from 88.0% at 0-ConclusionsThese interim results provide continued evidence for protection of 2 doses of mRNA-1273 against SARS-CoV-2 infection over 8 months post-vaccination and during the Delta period, and against COVID-19 hospitalization and hospital death

Postlicensure safety surveillance of congenital anomaly and miscarriage among pregnancies exposed to quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccine

Limited safety data are available on inadvertent exposure to quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccine (4vHPV) during pregnancy. We conducted a descriptive observational postlicensure safety surveillance study in Kaiser Permanente Southern California and Northern California to assess congenital anomaly and miscarriage among pregnancies exposed to 4vHPV. Using electronic medical records, we identified women who received a dose of 4vHPV between August 2006 and March 2008 within 30 days preconception or any time during a possible pregnancy. A broad algorithm was developed using diagnostic and procedure codes and laboratory tests to identify pregnancy, congenital anomalies, and miscarriages. Medical records of all potential congenital anomaly cases and a random sample of 100 potential miscarriage cases were reviewed to confirm pregnancy exposure and diagnosis. Results were reviewed by an independent Safety Review Committee (SRC). Among the population of 189,629 females who received at least one dose of 4vHPV during the study period, 2,678 females were identified as possibly having a 4vHPV-exposed pregnancy. Among 170 potential congenital anomalies identified, 44 (26%) were found to be both 4vHPV-exposed and confirmed congenital anomaly cases. Among the 633 potential miscarriages identified, the records of a random sample of 100 cases were reviewed, and 9 cases (9%) were confirmed as 4vHPV-exposed miscarriages. The SRC noted no safety signal for congenital anomaly or miscarriage associated with 4vHPV exposure during pregnancy. The rate of major congenital anomaly (3.6%) was in the range of background estimates from the literature. There was no apparent pattern of timing of 4vHPV exposure among 4vHPV-exposed miscarriages

Effectiveness of mRNA-1273 vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 omicron subvariants BA.1, BA.2, BA.2.12.1, BA.4, and BA.5

In this study, the authors estimate the effectiveness of the mRNA-1273 (Moderna) vaccine for Omicron subvariants using data from the USA on ~31,000 cases and ~92,000 matched controls. They find that effectiveness against infection waned rapidly after third and fourth doses, but effectiveness against hospitalization remained high

mRNA-1273 bivalent (original and Omicron) COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 outcomes in the United States

Abstract The bivalent (original and Omicron BA.4/BA.5) mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccine was authorized to offer broader protection against COVID-19. We conducted a matched cohort study to evaluate the effectiveness of the bivalent vaccine in preventing hospitalization for COVID-19 (primary outcome) and medically attended SARS-CoV-2 infection and hospital death (secondary outcomes). Compared to individuals who did not receive bivalent mRNA vaccination but received ≥2 doses of any monovalent mRNA vaccine, the relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) against hospitalization for COVID-19 was 70.3% (95% confidence interval, 64.0%–75.4%). rVE was consistent across subgroups and not modified by time since last monovalent dose or number of monovalent doses received. Protection was durable ≥3 months after the bivalent booster. rVE against SARS-CoV-2 infection requiring emergency department/urgent care and against COVID-19 hospital death was 55.0% (50.8%–58.8%) and 82.7% (63.7%–91.7%), respectively. The mRNA-1273 bivalent booster provides additional protection against hospitalization for COVID-19, medically attended SARS-CoV-2 infection, and COVID-19 hospital death