Decision making under deep uncertainties: A review of the applicability of methods in practice

Deep uncertainties like environmental and socio-economic changes create challenges to decision making. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) methods are recognised approaches to navigate deep uncertainties and support robust and adaptable decisions. However, their ability to fully reflect the context in which these decisions are made has been criticised. This paper presents a synthesis across cases and methods to provide a holistic understanding of the application of DMDU methods to support long-term decision making. We carried out a structured literature review and analysed 37 infrastructure DMDU case studies. The analysis shows that DMDU methods are effective at developing plans to address a range of deep uncertainties and in some cases, reflecting the institutional context of the decision. However, they largely overlook the organisational and individual contexts in which decision making happens. We argue that the use of existing DMDU methods in practice should start with a better understanding of the institutional, organisational and individual contexts. We then suggest modifications to the applications of DMDU methods, i.e. internalising the context at different stages of the decision-making process and developing a decision typology to signpost decision makers to the best approach for a specific context

Decision making for transformative change: exploring model use, structural uncertainty and deep leverage points for change in decision making under deep uncertainty

Moving to a low carbon society requires pro-active decisions to transform social and physical systems and their supporting infrastructure. However, the inherent complexity of these systems leads to uncertainty in their responses to interventions, and their critical societal role means that stakes are high. Techniques for decision making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) have recently begun to be applied in the context of transformation to a low carbon society. Applying DMDU to support transformation necessitates careful attention to uncertainty in system relationships (structural uncertainty), and to actions targeting deep leverage points to transform system relationships. This paper presents outcomes of a structured literature review of 44 case studies in which DMDU is applied to infrastructure decisions. Around half of these studies are found to neglect structural uncertainty entirely, and no study explicitly considers alternative system conceptions. Three quarters of studies consider actions targeting only parameters, a shallow leverage point for system transformation. Where actions targeting deeper leverage points are included, models of system relationships are unable to represent the transformative change these interventions could effect. The lack of attention to structural uncertainty in these studies could lead to misleading results in complex and poorly understood systems. The lack of interventions targeting deep leverage points could lead to neglect of some of the most effective routes to achieving transformative change. This review recommends greater attention to deeper leverage points and structural uncertainty in applications of DMDU targeting transformative change

A systematic review of the impacts of climate variability and change on electricity systems in Europe

Understanding the impacts of climate variability and change (CV&C) on electricity systems is paramount for operators preparing for weather-related disruptions, policymakers deciding on future directions of energy policies and European decision makers shaping research programs. This study conducted a systematic literature review to collate consistent patterns of impacts of CV&C on electricity systems in Europe. We found that, in the absence of adaptation and for current capacity, thermal electricity generation will decrease for the near term to mid-21st century (NT-MC) and the end of the 21st century (EC). In contrast, renewable electricity generation will increase for hydroelectricity in Northern Europe (NT-MC and EC), for solar electricity in Germany (NT-MC) and the United Kingdom and Spain (NT-MC and EC) and for wind electricity in the Iberian Peninsula (NT-MC) and over the Baltic and Aegean Sea (NT-MC and EC). Although the knowledge frontier in this area has advanced, the evidence available remains patchy. Future assessments should not only address some of the gaps identified but also better contextualise their results against those of earlier assessments. This review could provide a starting point for doing so

WEATHERING THE STORM: MANAGING PHYSICAL CLIMATE RISKS IN THE ELECTRICITY SECTORS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM AND FRANCE

Recent flooding of substations or droughts reducing hydropower brought the brittleness of electricity infrastructures to the attention of engineers, scientists and policy-makers. As future climate change is projected to affect extreme weather events, ensuring critical infrastructure reliability is vital for any society’s survival. Whilst governments lead climate adaptation planning, engaging private organisations in adaptation is paramount when they provide critical services. This research explores how electricity companies manage the climate risks they are exposed to and what drives them to do so in two countries. The UK and France were chosen because of the marked differences in the structure and governance of their electricity sectors. The research takes a qualitative multi-method approach, consisting in a systematic literature review and content analyses of policy and corporate documents as well as of interviews with electricity company employees, policy-makers and third-party practitioners. This thesis makes several contributions. First, in the long term, climate change will impact negatively on thermal electricity generation and positively on some renewable generation in parts of Europe. Second, climate risks in both countries are mostly mainstreamed through policies aiming to ensure future generation capacity. Third, the electricity sectors in both countries are well-prepared for short- and medium-term climate risks but less so for the longer term. Corporate climate adaptation is largely driven by financial and regulatory policy instruments, but existing instruments are not conducive to building climate-resilient electricity sectors in the long term. Fourth, the electricity sector governance is changing in both countries. Whilst the UK is traditionally market-based, government interventions are more frequent. In contrast, France moves from a state-centred towards a more market-based governance. In this context, a window of opportunities opens for governments to explore more innovative policy processes that consider the longer term and for companies to adopt decision-making approaches that accommodate the deep-uncertainties intrinsic to future climate change