How tight are the limits to land and water use? - Combined impacts of food demand and climate change

In the coming decades, world agricultural systems will face serious transitions. Population growth, income and lifestyle changes will lead to considerable increases in food demand. Moreover, a rising demand for renewable energy and biodiversity protection may restrict the area available for food production. On the other hand, global climate change will affect production conditions, for better or worse depending on regional conditions. In order to simulate these combined effects consistently and in a spatially explicit way, we have linked the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ) with a "Management model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment" (MAgPIE). LPJ represents the global biosphere with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degree. MAgPIE covers the most important agricultural crop and livestock production types. A prototype has been developed for one sample region. In the next stage this will be expanded to several economically relevant regions on a global scale, including international trade. The two models are coupled through a layer of productivity zones. In the paper we present the modelling approach, develop first joint scenarios and discuss selected results from the coupled modelling system

Investigation of the shear-mechanical and dielectric relaxation processes in two mono-alcohols close to the glass transition

Shear-mechanical and dielectric measurements on the two monohydroxy (mono-alcohol) molecular glass formers 2-ethyl-1-hexanol and 2-butanol close to the glass transition temperature are presented. The shear-mechanical data are obtained using the piezoelectric shear-modulus gauge method covering frequencies from 1mHz to 10kHz. The shear-mechanical relaxation spectra show two processes, which follow the typical scenario of a structural (alpha) relaxation and an additional (Johari-Goldstein) beta relaxation. The dielectric relaxation spectra are dominated by a Debye-type peak with an additional non-Debye peak visible. This Debye-type relaxation is a common feature peculiar to mono-alcohols. The time scale of the non-Debye dielectric relaxation process is shown to correspond to the mechanical structural (alpha) relaxation. Glass-transition temperatures and fragilities are reported based on the mechanical alpha relaxation and the dielectric Debye-type process, showing that the two glass-transition temperatures differ by approximately 10K and that the fragility based on the Debye-type process is a factor of two smaller than the structural fragility. If a mechanical signature of the Debye-type relaxation exists in these liquids, its relaxation strength is at most 1% and 3% of the full relaxation strength of 2-butanol and 2-ethyl-1-hexanol respectively. These findings support the notion that it is the non-Debye dielectric relaxation process that corresponds to the structural alpha relaxation in the liquid.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figures. Minor corrections, updated figures, more dielectric data show

How tight are the limits to land and water use? - Combined impacts of food demand and climate change

In the coming decades, world agricultural systems will face serious transitions. Population growth, income and lifestyle changes will lead to considerable increases in food demand. Moreover, a rising demand for renewable energy and biodiversity protection may restrict the area available for food production. On the other hand, global climate change will affect production conditions, for better or worse depending on regional conditions. In order to simulate these combined effects consistently and in a spatially explicit way, we have linked the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ) with a "Management model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment" (MAgPIE). LPJ represents the global biosphere with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degree. MAgPIE covers the most important agricultural crop and livestock production types. A prototype has been developed for one sample region. In the next stage this will be expanded to several economically relevant regions on a global scale, including international trade. The two models are coupled through a layer of productivity zones. In the paper we present the modelling approach, develop first joint scenarios and discuss selected results from the coupled modelling system

Impacts of urbanization around Mediterranean cities : changes in ecosystem service supply

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu MdM-2015-0552Urbanization is an important driver of changes in land cover in the Mediterranean Basin and it is likely to impact the supply and demand of ecosystem services (ES). The most significant land cover changes occur in the peri-urban zone, but little is known about how these changes affect the ES supply. For eight European and four North African cities, we have quantified changes in peri-urban land cover, for periods of sixteen years (1990-2006) in the Northern African, and twenty-two years (1990-2012) in the European cities, respectively. Using an expert-based method, we derived quantitative estimates of the dynamics in the supply of twenty-seven ES. The nature of land cover changes slightly differed between European and North African Mediterranean cities, but overall it increased in urban areas and decreased in agricultural land. The capacity of the peri-urban areas of Mediterranean cities to supply ES generally reduced over the last 20-30 years. For nine ES the potential supply actually increased for all four North African cities and three out of the eight European cities. Across all cities, the ES timber, wood fuel and religious and spiritual experience increased. Given the expected increase of urban population in the Mediterranean Basin and the current knowledge of ES deficits in urban areas, the overall decrease in ES supply capacity of peri-urban areas is a risk for human well-being in the Mediterranean and poses a serious challenge for the Sustainable Development Goals in the Mediterranean basin

The Nexus Land-Use model, approach articulating biophysical potentials and economic dynamics to model competition for land-use

International audienceInteractions between food demand, biomass energy and forest preservation are driving both food prices and land-use changes. This study presents a new model called Nexus Land-Use which describes these interactions through a representation of agricultural intensification. The model combine biophysics and economics to calculate crop yields, food prices, and resulting pasture and cropland areas within 12 inter-connected regions. The representation of cropland production systems relies on a biomass production function derived from the crop yield response function to inputs and a spatially explicit distribution of potential crop yields prescribed from the Lund-Postdam-Jena global vegetation model for managed Land (LPJmL). The economic principles governing decisions about land-use and intensification are adapted from the Ricardian rent theory, assuming cost minimisation. The land-use modelling approach described in this paper makes it possible to explore interactions among different types of demand for biomass, including indirect effects on land-use change resulting from international trade. Yield variations induced by the possible expansion of croplands on less suitable lands are modelled by using regional land area distributions of potential yields, and a boundary between intensive and extensive production. Idealized scenarios exploring the impact of forest preservation policies or rising energy price on agricultural intensification are presented

Simulation de séquences d'images haute résolution dégradées par la turbulence atmosphérique

Nous présentons une méthode originale de simulation d'images haute résolution dégradées par la turbulence atmosphérique. Ces images peuvent être simulées aussi bien dans le cas de fort anisoplanétisme qu'en isoplanétisme. En outre, nous prenons en compte l'aspect temporel de l'évolution de la turbulence dans le but de construire une séquence d'images dégradées prises à une fréquence d'échantillonnage donnée

Multiple cropping systems of the world and the potential for increasing cropping intensity

Multiple cropping, defined as harvesting more than once a year, is a widespread land management strategy in tropical and subtropical agriculture. It is a way of intensifying agricultural production and diversifying the crop mix for economic and environmental benefits. Here we present the first global gridded data set of multiple cropping systems and quantify the physical area of more than 200 systems, the global multiple cropping area and the potential for increasing cropping intensity. We use national and sub-national data on monthly crop-specific growing areas around the year 2000 (1998–2002) for 26 crop groups, global cropland extent and crop harvested areas to identify sequential cropping systems of two or three crops with non-overlapping growing seasons. We find multiple cropping systems on 135 million hectares (12% of global cropland) with 85 million hectares in irrigated agriculture. 34%, 13% and 10% of the rice, wheat and maize area, respectively are under multiple cropping, demonstrating the importance of such cropping systems for cereal production. Harvesting currently single cropped areas a second time could increase global harvested areas by 87–395 million hectares, which is about 45% lower than previous estimates. Some scenarios of intensification indicate that it could be enough land to avoid expanding physical cropland into other land uses but attainable intensification will depend on the local context and the crop yields attainable in the second cycle and its related environmental costs. © 2020 The Author(s