468 research outputs found

    Modeling the non-Markovian, non-stationary scaling dynamics of financial markets

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    A central problem of Quantitative Finance is that of formulating a probabilistic model of the time evolution of asset prices allowing reliable predictions on their future volatility. As in several natural phenomena, the predictions of such a model must be compared with the data of a single process realization in our records. In order to give statistical significance to such a comparison, assumptions of stationarity for some quantities extracted from the single historical time series, like the distribution of the returns over a given time interval, cannot be avoided. Such assumptions entail the risk of masking or misrepresenting non-stationarities of the underlying process, and of giving an incorrect account of its correlations. Here we overcome this difficulty by showing that five years of daily Euro/US-Dollar trading records in the about three hours following the New York market opening, provide a rich enough ensemble of histories. The statistics of this ensemble allows to propose and test an adequate model of the stochastic process driving the exchange rate. This turns out to be a non-Markovian, self-similar process with non-stationary returns. The empirical ensemble correlators are in agreement with the predictions of this model, which is constructed on the basis of the time-inhomogeneous, anomalous scaling obeyed by the return distribution.Comment: Throughout revision. 15 pages, 6 figures. Presented by A.L. Stella in a Talk at the "Econophysics - Kolkata V'' International Workshop, March 2010, Saha Institute of Nuclear Physics, Kolkata, Indi

    Parent-carer experiences using a peer support network: a qualitative study

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    This is the final version. Available on open access from BMC via the DOI in this recordAvailability of data and materials: The datasets generated and/or analysed during the current study are not publicly available to maintain the privacy of participants but are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.Introduction Parent-carers of children and young people (CYP) with mental health problems are at greater risk of poor outcomes, such as poor physical and mental health. Peer interventions for parent-carers of CYP with disabilities may improve parent-carer outcomes. This qualitative study investigates parent-carer experiences of using Parental Minds (PM), a multi-component peer support service for parent-carers of CYP with disabilities. Methods Twelve current service-users and four staff/volunteers at PM participated in one-to-one semi-structured interviews. All participants were white females, except for one service-user who was male. All interviews were recorded and transcribed verbatim. Thematic analysis of results was used to explore perceived benefits and disadvantages of PM and possible behaviour change mechanisms. Results Three themes and eight subthemes were identified. Participants identified that internal and external factors influence their self-concept. The identification of themselves as a priority, and empowerment by reassurance and affirmation lead to improved parent-carer self-efficacy and agency to better care for their CYP. Participants described the difficulty of speaking honestly with friends and family about what they experience because it is perceived as different to what “normal” parents experience. From participant accounts, PM enables the construction of a support network and links external services to help manage family circumstances rather than offer curative treatment/intervention. Proactive and immediate advice which is constantly and consistently available was valued by participants. Participants expressed the need for a flexible range of service components which provide holistic support that encompasses both health and social care. Conclusions PM was perceived to be beneficial as a multi-component peer support service which increases parenting self-efficacy and empowerment, reduces isolation, improves access to services, and is tailored to individual needs. Parent-carers reported benefits in parenting and wellbeing practices. The development of a refined logic model will inform a future study of the effectiveness of PM on parent-carer outcomes

    Emerging Infectious Disease leads to Rapid Population Decline of Common British Birds

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    Emerging infectious diseases are increasingly cited as threats to wildlife, livestock and humans alike. They can threaten geographically isolated or critically endangered wildlife populations; however, relatively few studies have clearly demonstrated the extent to which emerging diseases can impact populations of common wildlife species. Here, we report the impact of an emerging protozoal disease on British populations of greenfinch Carduelis chloris and chaffinch Fringilla coelebs, two of the most common birds in Britain. Morphological and molecular analyses showed this to be due to Trichomonas gallinae. Trichomonosis emerged as a novel fatal disease of finches in Britain in 2005 and rapidly became epidemic within greenfinch, and to a lesser extent chaffinch, populations in 2006. By 2007, breeding populations of greenfinches and chaffinches in the geographic region of highest disease incidence had decreased by 35% and 21% respectively, representing mortality in excess of half a million birds. In contrast, declines were less pronounced or absent in these species in regions where the disease was found in intermediate or low incidence. Also, populations of dunnock Prunella modularis, which similarly feeds in gardens, but in which T. gallinae was rarely recorded, did not decline. This is the first trichomonosis epidemic reported in the scientific literature to negatively impact populations of free-ranging non-columbiform species, and such levels of mortality and decline due to an emerging infectious disease are unprecedented in British wild bird populations. This disease emergence event demonstrates the potential for a protozoan parasite to jump avian host taxonomic groups with dramatic effect over a short time period

    Effects of Noise on Ecological Invasion Processes: Bacteriophage-mediated Competition in Bacteria

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    Pathogen-mediated competition, through which an invasive species carrying and transmitting a pathogen can be a superior competitor to a more vulnerable resident species, is one of the principle driving forces influencing biodiversity in nature. Using an experimental system of bacteriophage-mediated competition in bacterial populations and a deterministic model, we have shown in [Joo et al 2005] that the competitive advantage conferred by the phage depends only on the relative phage pathology and is independent of the initial phage concentration and other phage and host parameters such as the infection-causing contact rate, the spontaneous and infection-induced lysis rates, and the phage burst size. Here we investigate the effects of stochastic fluctuations on bacterial invasion facilitated by bacteriophage, and examine the validity of the deterministic approach. We use both numerical and analytical methods of stochastic processes to identify the source of noise and assess its magnitude. We show that the conclusions obtained from the deterministic model are robust against stochastic fluctuations, yet deviations become prominently large when the phage are more pathological to the invading bacterial strain.Comment: 39 pages, 7 figure

    The effectiveness of the Inspiring Futures parenting programme in improving behavioural and emotional outcomes in primary school children with behavioural or emotional difficulties: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

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    textabstractBackground: There is a need to build the evidence base of early interventions promoting children's health and development in the UK. Malachi Specialist Family Support Services ('Malachi') is a voluntary sector organisation based in the UK that delivers a therapeutic parenting group programme called Inspiring Futures to parents of children identified as having behavioural and emotional difficulties. The programme comprises two parts, delivered sequentially: (1) a group-based programme for all parents for 10-12 weeks, and (2) one-to-one sessions with selected parents from the group-based element for up to 12 weeks. Methods/design: A randomised controlled trial will be conducted to evaluate Malachi's Inspiring Futures parenting programme. Participants will be allocated to one of two possible arms, with follow-up measures at 16 weeks (post-parent group programme) and at 32 weeks (post-one-to-one sessions with selected parents). The sample size is 248 participants with a randomisation allocation ratio of 1:1. The intervention arm will be offered the Inspiring Futures programme. The control group will receive services as usual. The aim is to determine the effectiveness of the Inspiring Futures programme on the primary outcome of behavioural and emotional difficulties of primary school children identified as having behavioural or emotional difficulties. Discussion: This study will further enhance the evidence for early intervention parenting programmes for child behavioural and emotional problems in the UK

    Measurement of the CKM angle γ from a combination of B±→Dh± analyses

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    A combination of three LHCb measurements of the CKM angle γ is presented. The decays B±→D K± and B±→Dπ± are used, where D denotes an admixture of D0 and D0 mesons, decaying into K+K−, π+π−, K±π∓, K±π∓π±π∓, K0Sπ+π−, or K0S K+K− final states. All measurements use a dataset corresponding to 1.0 fb−1 of integrated luminosity. Combining results from B±→D K± decays alone a best-fit value of γ =72.0◦ is found, and confidence intervals are set γ ∈ [56.4,86.7]◦ at 68% CL, γ ∈ [42.6,99.6]◦ at 95% CL. The best-fit value of γ found from a combination of results from B±→Dπ± decays alone, is γ =18.9◦, and the confidence intervals γ ∈ [7.4,99.2]◦ ∪ [167.9,176.4]◦ at 68% CL are set, without constraint at 95% CL. The combination of results from B± → D K± and B± → Dπ± decays gives a best-fit value of γ =72.6◦ and the confidence intervals γ ∈ [55.4,82.3]◦ at 68% CL, γ ∈ [40.2,92.7]◦ at 95% CL are set. All values are expressed modulo 180◦, and are obtained taking into account the effect of D0–D0 mixing
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