Quality variation in comminuted forest fuels delivered during the winter in north Sweden

Swedish legislation stipulates the precision required for estimates of parameters used to determine the value of various forest fuels. The net energy value of fuel, as it is received, is often used to set the trade price. The estimate of energy content is based on the moisture content of samples taken from each truckload and the weight of the biomass; the ash content and net calorific value are measured a few times each year. Hence, it is necessary to know the variation in moisture content to ensure that a sufficient number of samples are taken, a number based on the allowed variation and precision of estimates, as defined in the legalization. In this study, the variation in moisture content was measured by taking samples from 18 truckloads of comminuted forest fuels during the winter. The results showed that the current sampling regime, i.e., manually taking four samples from each truckload, is sufficient for deliveries with 10 truckloads for logging residue chips and 4 for stem wood chips. The number of samples should be increased to 12-43, 8-21, and, 17-82 depending on assortment for what the measuring act defines as large deliveries (>=50 tonnes; >=3 truckloads), medium-sized deliveries (25 tonnes; 2 truckloads) and single truck deliveries (<= 25 tonnes; 1 truckload), respectively. Current research into fast online sampling and analysis methods could resolve this issue for small deliveries

Models for Galactic cosmic-ray propagation

A new numerical model of particle propagation in the Galaxy has been developed, which allows the study of cosmic-ray and gamma-ray production and propagation in 2D or 3D, including a full reaction network. This is a further development of the code which has been used for studies of cosmic ray reacceleration, Galactic halo size, antiprotons and positrons in cosmic rays, the interpretation of diffuse continuum gamma rays, and dark matter. In this paper we illustrate recent results focussing on B/C, sub-Fe/Fe, ACE radioactive isotope data, source abundances and antiprotons. From the radioactive nuclei we derive a range of 3-7 kpc for the height of the cosmic-ray halo.Comment: Invited talk at the 33rd COSPAR Scientific Assembly (Warsaw 2000); 10 pages including 10 ps-figures and 2 tables, latex2e, uses cospar.sty. To appear in Advances in Space Research 2001. More details can be found at http://www.gamma.mpe-garching.mpg.de/~aws/aws.htm

Direct Constraints on Minimal Supersymmetry from Fermi-LAT Observations of the Dwarf Galaxy Segue 1

The dwarf galaxy Segue 1 is one of the most promising targets for the indirect detection of dark matter. Here we examine what constraints 9 months of Fermi-LAT gamma-ray observations of Segue 1 place upon the Constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (CMSSM), with the lightest neutralino as the dark matter particle. We use nested sampling to explore the CMSSM parameter space, simultaneously fitting other relevant constraints from accelerator bounds, the relic density, electroweak precision observables, the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon and B-physics. We include spectral and spatial fits to the Fermi observations, a full treatment of the instrumental response and its related uncertainty, and detailed background models. We also perform an extrapolation to 5 years of observations, assuming no signal is observed from Segue 1 in that time. Results marginally disfavour models with low neutralino masses and high annihilation cross-sections. Virtually all of these models are however already disfavoured by existing experimental or relic density constraints.Comment: 22 pages, 5 figures; added extra scans with extreme halo parameters, expanded introduction and discussion in response to referee's comment

Evolution of associative learning in chemical networks

Organisms that can learn about their environment and modify their behaviour appropriately during their lifetime are more likely to survive and reproduce than organisms that do not. While associative learning – the ability to detect correlated features of the environment – has been studied extensively in nervous systems, where the underlying mechanisms are reasonably well understood, mechanisms within single cells that could allow associative learning have received little attention. Here, using in silico evolution of chemical networks, we show that there exists a diversity of remarkably simple and plausible chemical solutions to the associative learning problem, the simplest of which uses only one core chemical reaction. We then asked to what extent a linear combination of chemical concentrations in the network could approximate the ideal Bayesian posterior of an environment given the stimulus history so far? This Bayesian analysis revealed the ’memory traces’ of the chemical network. The implication of this paper is that there is little reason to believe that a lack of suitable phenotypic variation would prevent associative learning from evolving in cell signalling, metabolic, gene regulatory, or a mixture of these networks in cells

The fine-grained phase-space structure of Cold Dark Matter halos

We present a new and completely general technique for calculating the fine-grained phase-space structure of dark matter throughout the Galactic halo. Our goal is to understand this structure on the scales relevant for direct and indirect detection experiments. Our method is based on evaluating the geodesic deviation equation along the trajectories of individual DM particles. It requires no assumptions about the symmetry or stationarity of the halo formation process. In this paper we study general static potentials which exhibit more complex behaviour than the separable potentials studied previously. For ellipsoidal logarithmic potentials with a core, phase mixing is sensitive to the resonance structure, as indicated by the number of independent orbital frequencies. Regions of chaotic mixing can be identified by the very rapid decrease in the real space density of the associated dark matter streams. We also study the evolution of stream density in ellipsoidal NFW halos with radially varying isopotential shape, showing that if such a model is applied to the Galactic halo, at least $10^5$ streams are expected near the Sun. The most novel aspect of our approach is that general non-static systems can be studied through implementation in a cosmological N-body code. Such an implementation allows a robust and accurate evaluation of the enhancements in annihilation radiation due to fine-scale structure such as caustics. We embed the scheme in the current state-of-the-art code GADGET-3 and present tests which demonstrate that N-body discreteness effects can be kept under control in realistic configurations.Comment: 20 pages, 24 figures, submitted to MNRA

Antideuterons as a Signature of Supersymmetric Dark Matter

Once the energy spectrum of the secondary component is well understood, measurements of the antiproton cosmic-ray flux at the Earth will be a powerful way to indirectly probe for the existence of supersymmetric relics in the galactic halo. Unfortunately, it is still spoilt by considerable theoretical uncertainties. As shown in this work, searches for low-energy antideuterons appear in the mean time as a plausible alternative, worth being explored. Above a few GeV/n, a dozen spallation antideuterons should be collected by the future AMS experiment on board ISSA. For energies less than about 3 GeV/n, the antideuteron spallation component becomes negligible and may be supplanted by a potential supersymmetric signal. If a few low-energy antideuterons are discovered, this should be seriously taken as a clue for the existence of massive neutralinos in the Milky Way.Comment: 16 pages, 9 figure

Further investigation of a relic neutralino as a possible origin of an annual-modulation effect in WIMP direct search

We analyze the annual-modulation effect, measured by the DAMA Collaboration with the new implementation of a further two-years running, in the context of a possible interpretation in terms of relic neutralinos. We impose over the set of supersymmetric configurations, selected by the annual-modulation data, the constraints derived from WIMP indirect measurements, and discuss the features of the ensuing relic neutralinos. We critically discuss the sources of the main theoretical uncertainties in the analysis of event rates for direct and indirect WIMP searches.Comment: 29 pages, 12 figures, typeset with ReVTeX. In order to reduce size, the version on the archive has low resolution figures. A full version of the paper can be found at http://www.to.infn.it/~fornengo/papers

Bayesian Strong Gravitational-Lens Modeling on Adaptive Grids: Objective Detection of Mass Substructure in Galaxies

We introduce a new adaptive and fully Bayesian grid-based method to model strong gravitational lenses with extended images. The primary goal of this method is to quantify the level of luminous and dark-mass substructure in massive galaxies, through their effect on highly-magnified arcs and Einstein rings. The method is adaptive on the source plane, where a Delaunay tessellation is defined according to the lens mapping of a regular grid onto the source plane. The Bayesian penalty function allows us to recover the best non-linear potential-model parameters and/or a grid-based potential correction and to objectively quantify the level of regularization for both the source and the potential. In addition, we implement a Nested-Sampling technique to quantify the errors on all non-linear mass model parameters -- ... -- and allow an objective ranking of different potential models in terms of the marginalized evidence. In particular, we are interested in comparing very smooth lens mass models with ones that contain mass-substructures. The algorithm has been tested on a range of simulated data sets, created from a model of a realistic lens system. One of the lens systems is characterized by a smooth potential with a power-law density profile, twelve include a NFW dark-matter substructure of different masses and at different positions and one contains two NFW dark substructures with the same mass but with different positions. Reconstruction of the source and of the lens potential for all of these systems shows the method is able, in a realistic scenario, to identify perturbations with masses >=10^7 solar mass when located on the Einstein ring. For positions both inside and outside of the ring, masses of at least 10^9 solar mass are required (...).Comment: 21 pages, 15 figures, 4 tables; accepted for publication in MNRA

The phase-space structure of a dark-matter halo: Implications for dark-matter direct detection experiments

We study the phase-space structure of a dark-matter halo formed in a high resolution simulation of a Lambda CDM cosmology. Our goal is to quantify how much substructure is left over from the inhomogeneous growth of the halo, and how it may affect the signal in experiments aimed at detecting the dark matter particles directly. If we focus on the equivalent of ``Solar vicinity'', we find that the dark-matter is smoothly distributed in space. The probability of detecting particles bound within dense lumps of individual mass less than 10^7 M_\sun h^{-1} is small, less than 10^{-2}. The velocity ellipsoid in the Solar neighbourhood deviates only slightly from a multivariate Gaussian, and can be thought of as a superposition of thousands of kinematically cold streams. The motions of the most energetic particles are, however, strongly clumped and highly anisotropic. We conclude that experiments may safely assume a smooth multivariate Gaussian distribution to represent the kinematics of dark-matter particles in the Solar neighbourhood. Experiments sensitive to the direction of motion of the incident particles could exploit the expected anisotropy to learn about the recent merging history of our Galaxy.Comment: 13 pages, 13 figures, Phys. Rev. D in press. Postscript version with high resolution figures available from http://www.mpa-garching.mpg.de/~ahelmi/research/lcdm_dm.html; some changes in the text; constraints on the effect of bound dark-matter lumps revised; remaining conclusions unchange