Estimating DSGE Models using Multilevel Sequential Monte Carlo in Approximate Bayesian Computation

21-25Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models allow for probabilistic estimations with the aim of formulating macroeconomic policies and monitoring them. In this study, we propose to apply the Sequential Monte Carlo Multilevel algorithm and Approximate Bayesian Computation (MLSMC-ABC) to increase the robustness of DSGE models built for small samples and with irregular data. Our results indicate that MLSMC-ABC improves the estimation of these models in two aspects. Firstly, the accuracy levels of the existing models are increased, and secondly, the cost of the resources used is reduced due to the need for shorter execution time

Estimating DSGE Models using Multilevel Sequential Monte Carlo in Approximate Bayesian Computation

Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models allow for probabilistic estimations with the aim of formulating macroeconomic policies and monitoring them. In this study, we propose to apply the Sequential Monte Carlo Multilevel algorithm and Approximate Bayesian Computation (MLSMC-ABC) to increase the robustness of DSGE models built for small samples and with irregular data. Our results indicate that MLSMC-ABC improves the estimation of these models in two aspects. Firstly, the accuracy levels of the existing models are increased, and secondly, the cost of the resources used is reduced due to the need for shorter execution time

SISTEMA DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE DÍGITOS MANUSCRITOS UTILIZANDO REDES NEURONALES

El reconocimiento de dígitos manuscritos es un entorno en creciente uso y por consiguiente requiere ir abordando alternativas para su implementación, el  uso de redes neuronales ha venido retomando el auge dentro del área de reconocimiento de patrones. Este documento muestra el uso de redes neuronales, a través de un software personalizado, como el motor detrás un sistema de reconocimiento de caracteres ópticos. En este sistema los dígitos numéricos son simplificados a través de filtros de imagen y luego presentados como entrada a la red neuronal para entrenarla (usando el algoritmo de retro-propagación) y ser capaz de clasificar otras muestras en la etapa de pruebas. Los resultados muestran tasas de reconocimiento cercanas al 85%, que se pueden considerar como aceptables para topologías de una sola capa, dejando pendiente para futuros experimentos el trabajo con redes multicapa pre-entrenadas, ya que suelen incrementar fuertemente su eficiencia

Comportamiento de los tumores malignos de tiroides en nuestro medio

Carcinoma is the most frequent thyroid gland tumor and also the most frequent endocrine system malignancy. Thyroid cancer affects women more frequently than men, usually having an onset between ages 25 and 65 years. A study was performed including all cases with thyroid malignancy surgically treated in the Provincial University Hospital Arnaldo Milian Castro between January and December 2003. The incidence was 34.3%, with a female gender preference, with a peak at ages between 31 and 60 years. The main clinical symptom was cervical mass. Preoperatory ancillary tests were performed in order to help diagnosis and therapy (hemogram, cervical ultrasound and fine needle aspiration biopsy), being the last two procedures of utmost importance regarding the practical management. The treatment was surgical in all cases, with a total thyroidectomy in 75% of them. The 75% of cases were discharged successfully, with a hospitalization of less than 3 days.El carcinoma es el cáncer más frecuente de las tumoraciones de la glándula tiroides y la neoplasia maligna más común del sistema endocrino. El cáncer tiroideo afecta a la mujer con mayor frecuencia que al hombre y suele presentarse en personas de 25-65 años de edad. Se estudiaron los pacientes intervenidos quirúrgicamente por tumores malignos de la glándula tiroides en el Hospital Universitario “Arnaldo Milián Castro” de Santa Clara en el período de un año (enero–diciembre de 2003). La incidencia fue de un 34.3%, con predominio del sexo femenino en relación al masculino y mayor incidencia en las edades comprendidas entre 31 y 60 años. La manifestación clínica fundamental fue el aumento de volumen a nivel cervical. Se realizaron estudios preoperatorios de importancia marcada para el diagnóstico y el tratamiento: hemograma, leucograma, ultrasonido cervical y biopsia por aspiración con aguja fina, los dos últimos son muy necesarios para definir la conducta a seguir. El tratamiento en todos los pacientes fue quirúrgico, en el 75% de los casos se practicó la tiroidectomía total, con resultados favorables. El 75% de los pacientes fueron egresados satisfactoriamente, con una estadía hospitalaria inferior a tres días

Factores asociados a la calidad de la atención en población adulta afiliada a la Seguridad Social: El caso peruano

Objetive: To identify factors associated with perceived quality of care in the adult population affiliated with Social Security Health (EsSalud) Material and methods: We analyzed the National Socioeconomic Survey of Access to Health of the EsSalud Insured. Perceived quality of health care was evaluated in ambulatory care, hospitalization and emergency medical services. We reported adjusted ratios of means (RMa) estimated by multiple Poisson regression. Results: Being employed (RMa=0.98; IC95% 0.96-0.99), not knowing the services provided by EsSalud (RMa=0.97; IC95% 0.95-1.00), not receiving information about right to health (RMa=0.95; IC95% 0.93-0.98), perceiving as low the level of accessibility to the health facility (RMa=0.97; IC95% 0.95-0.99) and not feeling comfortable in the health facility of EsSalud (RM=0.92; IC95% 0.91-0.94) were factors associated with lower scores of perceived quality in ambulatory care. In hospitalization, being between 40-59 years old (RMa=0.93; IC95% 0.88-0.97), having a low wealth index (RMa=0.92; IC95% 0.87-0.97), not having received information about right to health (RMa=0.90; IC95% 0.84-0.95) and not feeling comfortable in the health facility of EsSalud (RMa=0.92; IC95% 0.89-0.96) were associated with lower quality score. In emergency, not feeling comfortable in the health facility of EsSalud (RMa=0.89; IC95% 0.93-1.00) was the only factor associated with a lower perceived quality score. Conclusions: We identified factors related to users and service offerings independently associated with perceived quality of care, which can be considered by decision makers for better management of EsSalud.Objetivo: Identificar factores asociados a calidad percibida de atención en la población adulta afiliada al Seguro Social en Salud (EsSalud). Material y métodos: Analizamos la Encuesta Nacional Socioeconómica de Acceso a la Salud de los Asegurados de EsSalud. La calidad percibida fue evaluada en consultorio externo, hospitalización y emergencias. Reportamos razones de medias ajustadas (RMa) estimadas mediante regresión de Poisson múltiple. Resultados: Estar empleado (RMa=0,98; IC95% 0,96-0,99), no conocer los servicios que brinda EsSalud (RMa=0,97; IC95% 0,95-1,00), no recibir información sobre los derechos como usuarios (RMa=0,95; IC95% 0,93-0,98), valorar como bajo el nivel de accesibilidad al EESS (RMa=0,97; IC95% 0,95-0,99) y no sentirse cómodo en el EESS al que acude (RM=0,92; IC95% 0,91-0,94) fueron factores asociados a menor puntaje de calidad percibida en consultorio externo. En hospitalización, tener entre 40-59 años (RMa=0,93; IC95% 0,88-0,97), contar con un índice de riqueza bajo (RMa=0,92; IC95% 0,87-0,97), no haber recibido información sobre los derechos como usuarios (RMa=0,90; IC95% 0,84-0,95) y no sentirse cómodos en el EESS (RMa=0,92; IC95% 0,89-0,96) se asociaron a menor puntuación de calidad. En emergencia, no sentirse cómodo en el EESS (RMa=0,89; IC95% 0,93-1,00) fue el único factor asociado a una menor puntuación de calidad percibida. Conclusiones: Identificamos factores relativos a los usuarios y a la oferta de servicios independientemente asociados a calidad percibida de atención, los cuales pueden ser considerados por los tomadores de decisiones para la mejor gestión de EsSalud

Ensayos sobre crecimiento económico en Colombia

'Ensayos sobre crecimiento económico en Colombia', editado por Adolfo Meisel y Hernando Vargas, es el resultado de una agenda de investigación del Banco de la República sobre el crecimiento económico en Colombia. Su objetivo principal es analizar algunas de las restricciones de carácter estructural que limitan el crecimiento económico en el largo plazo. Así mismo, pretende entender cuáles son las causas del lento crecimiento del país, indispensable para formular políticas públicas tendientes a lograr un mayor crecimiento económico, y analizar la relación entre el desempeño económico regional y el crecimiento de largo plazo para identificar políticas de desarrollo regional adecuadas. La obra analiza en profundidad seis temas de gran relevancia para el país: descentralización fiscal y crecimiento regional; capital humano y físico y crecimiento municipal; innovación y empleo; productividad y participación en el mercado exportador; capital humano y participación laboral, y desempeño de las exportaciones colombianas

Identification of Plasmodium vivax Proteins with Potential Role in Invasion Using Sequence Redundancy Reduction and Profile Hidden Markov Models

BACKGROUND: This study describes a bioinformatics approach designed to identify Plasmodium vivax proteins potentially involved in reticulocyte invasion. Specifically, different protein training sets were built and tuned based on different biological parameters, such as experimental evidence of secretion and/or involvement in invasion-related processes. A profile-based sequence method supported by hidden Markov models (HMMs) was then used to build classifiers to search for biologically-related proteins. The transcriptional profile of the P. vivax intra-erythrocyte developmental cycle was then screened using these classifiers. RESULTS: A bioinformatics methodology for identifying potentially secreted P. vivax proteins was designed using sequence redundancy reduction and probabilistic profiles. This methodology led to identifying a set of 45 proteins that are potentially secreted during the P. vivax intra-erythrocyte development cycle and could be involved in cell invasion. Thirteen of the 45 proteins have already been described as vaccine candidates; there is experimental evidence of protein expression for 7 of the 32 remaining ones, while no previous studies of expression, function or immunology have been carried out for the additional 25. CONCLUSIONS: The results support the idea that probabilistic techniques like profile HMMs improve similarity searches. Also, different adjustments such as sequence redundancy reduction using Pisces or Cd-Hit allowed data clustering based on rational reproducible measurements. This kind of approach for selecting proteins with specific functions is highly important for supporting large-scale analyses that could aid in the identification of genes encoding potential new target antigens for vaccine development and drug design. The present study has led to targeting 32 proteins for further testing regarding their ability to induce protective immune responses against P. vivax malaria

Measurement of the top quark forward-backward production asymmetry and the anomalous chromoelectric and chromomagnetic moments in pp collisions at √s = 13 TeV

Abstract The parton-level top quark (t) forward-backward asymmetry and the anomalous chromoelectric (d̂ t) and chromomagnetic (μ̂ t) moments have been measured using LHC pp collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, collected in the CMS detector in a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb−1. The linearized variable AFB(1) is used to approximate the asymmetry. Candidate t t ¯ events decaying to a muon or electron and jets in final states with low and high Lorentz boosts are selected and reconstructed using a fit of the kinematic distributions of the decay products to those expected for t t ¯ final states. The values found for the parameters are AFB(1)=0.048−0.087+0.095(stat)−0.029+0.020(syst),μ̂t=−0.024−0.009+0.013(stat)−0.011+0.016(syst), and a limit is placed on the magnitude of | d̂ t| < 0.03 at 95% confidence level. [Figure not available: see fulltext.