The impact of increased food availability on reproduction in a long-distance migratory songbird: implications for environmental change?

Many populations of migratory songbirds are declining or shifting in distribution. This is likely due to environmental changes that alter factors such as food availability that may have an impact on survival and/or breeding success. We tested the impact of experimentally supplemented food on the breeding success over three years of northern wheatears (Oenanthe oenanthe), a species in decline over much of Europe. The number of offspring fledged over the season was higher for food-supplemented birds than for control birds. The mechanisms for this effect were that food supplementation advanced breeding date, which, together with increased resources, allowed further breeding attempts. While food supplementation did not increase the clutch size, hatching success or number of chicks fledged per breeding attempt, it did increase chick size in one year of the study. The increased breeding success was greater for males than females; males could attempt to rear simultaneous broods with multiple females as well as attempting second broods, whereas females could only increase their breeding effort via second broods. Multiple brooding is rare in the study population, but this study demonstrates the potential for changes in food availability to affect wheatear breeding productivity, primarily via phenotypic flexibility in the number of breeding attempts. Our results have implications for our understanding of how wheatears may respond to natural changes in food availability due to climate changes or changes in habitat management

On Singularity Formation of a Nonlinear Nonlocal System

We investigate the singularity formation of a nonlinear nonlocal system. This nonlocal system is a simplified one-dimensional system of the 3D model that was recently proposed by Hou and Lei in [13] for axisymmetric 3D incompressible Navier-Stokes equations with swirl. The main difference between the 3D model of Hou and Lei and the reformulated 3D Navier-Stokes equations is that the convection term is neglected in the 3D model. In the nonlocal system we consider in this paper, we replace the Riesz operator in the 3D model by the Hilbert transform. One of the main results of this paper is that we prove rigorously the finite time singularity formation of the nonlocal system for a large class of smooth initial data with finite energy. We also prove the global regularity for a class of smooth initial data. Numerical results will be presented to demonstrate the asymptotically self-similar blow-up of the solution. The blowup rate of the self-similar singularity of the nonlocal system is similar to that of the 3D model.Comment: 28 pages, 9 figure

The WD40 domain of ATG16L1 is required for its non-canonical role in lipidation of LC3 at single membranes

A hallmark of macroautophagy is the covalent lipidation of LC3 and insertion into the double-membrane phagophore, which is driven by the ATG16L1/ATG5-ATG12 complex. In contrast, non-canonical autophagy is a pathway through which LC3 is lipidated and inserted into single membranes, particularly endolysosomal vacuoles during cell engulfment events such as LC3-associated phagocytosis. Factors controlling the targeting of ATG16L1 to phagophores are dispensable for non-canonical autophagy, for which the mechanism of ATG16L1 recruitment is unknown. Here we show that the WD repeat containing C-terminal domain (WD40 CTD) of ATG16L1 is essential for LC3 recruitment to endolysosomal membranes during non-canonical autophagy, but dispensable for canonical autophagy. Using this strategy to inhibit non-canonical autophagy specifically we show a reduction of MHC class II antigen presentation in dendritic cells from mice lacking the WD40 CTD. Further, we demonstrate activation of non-canonical autophagy dependent on the WD40 CTD during influenza A virus infection. This suggests dependence on WD40 CTD distinguishes between macroautophagy and non-canonical use of autophagy machinery.This research was supported by the Cambridge NIHR BRC Cell Phenotyping Hub. This work was funded by Cancer Research UK (C47718/A16337, O.F.), the Medical Research Council (RG89611, R.B.) and the BBSRC Institute Strategic Programme Gut Health and Food Safety (BB/J004529/1)

The importance of prototype similarity for physical activity: cross-sectional and longitudinal associations in a large sample of young adolescents

Objectives. Physical activity declines during adolescence. The Theory of Planned Behaviour is a useful framework for investigating activity, but leaves variance unexplained. We explored the utility of a dual-process approach by using the Theory of Planned Behaviour and the Prototype Willingness Model to investigate correlates of physical activity, and of one-year change in physical activity, among a large sample of adolescents. Design. A cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis of baseline and follow-up data from the Fit to Study cluster-randomised trial.  Methods. 9,699 secondary school pupils at baseline and 4,632 at follow-up (mean age=12.5 years) completed measures of past week physical activity and constructs from the two behaviour-change models, at time-points one year apart. Cross-sectional analyses used multilevel, stepwise models to measure strength of associations between model constructs and physical activity, and variance in behaviour explained by Prototype Willingness Model over and above Theory of Planned Behaviour. In longitudinal analyses, change scores were calculated by subtracting follow-up from baseline scores. Models controlling for trial treatment status measured strength of associations between change scores, and variance explained. Results. At baseline, after controlling for past behaviour, physically-active prototype similarity had the strongest relationship with activity after intention to be active.  Change in prototype similarity had the strongest relationship with change in activity after change in intention and attitudes. Prototype perceptions and willingness explained additional variance in behaviour. Conclusion. A dual-process model incorporating prototype perceptions could more usefully predict  physical activity than models based on rational expectations alone.  Behaviour-change interventions promoting an active self-image could be tested for effects on physical activity. Key words: Theory of Planned Behaviour, Prototype Willingness Model, physical activity, adolescent, behaviour-change

Anthropogenic modifications to fire regimes in the wider Serengeti‐Mara ecosystem

Fire is a key driver in savannah systems and widely used as a land management tool. Intensifying human land uses are leading to rapid changes in the fire regimes, with consequences for ecosystem functioning and composition. We undertake a novel analysis describing spatial patterns in the fire regime of the Serengeti‐Mara ecosystem, document multidecadal temporal changes and investigate the factors underlying these patterns. We used MODIS active fire and burned area products from 2001 to 2014 to identify individual fires; summarizing four characteristics for each detected fire: size, ignition date, time since last fire and radiative power. Using satellite imagery, we estimated the rate of change in the density of livestock bomas as a proxy for livestock density. We used these metrics to model drivers of variation in the four fire characteristics, as well as total number of fires and total area burned. Fires in the Serengeti‐Mara show high spatial variability—with number of fires and ignition date mirroring mean annual precipitation. The short‐term effect of rainfall decreases fire size and intensity but cumulative rainfall over several years leads to increased standing grass biomass and fuel loads, and, therefore, in larger and hotter fires. Our study reveals dramatic changes over time, with a reduction in total number of fires and total area burned, to the point where some areas now experience virtually no fire. We suggest that increasing livestock numbers are driving this decline, presumably by inhibiting fire spread. These temporal patterns are part of a global decline in total area burned, especially in savannahs, and we caution that ecosystem functioning may have been compromised. Land managers and policy formulators need to factor in rapid fire regime modifications to achieve management objectives and maintain the ecological function of savannah ecosystems

The changing contributory role to infections of work, public transport, shopping, hospitality and leisure activities throughout the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in England and Wales

Background: Understanding how non-household activities contributed to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections under different levels of national health restrictions is vital. // Methods: Among adult Virus Watch participants in England and Wales, we used multivariable logistic regressions and adjusted-weighted population attributable fractions (aPAF) assessing the contribution of work, public transport, shopping, and hospitality and leisure activities to infections. // Results: Under restrictions, among 17,256 participants (502 infections), work [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.01 (1.65–2.44), (aPAF) 30% (22–38%)] and transport [(aOR 1.15 (0.94–1.40), aPAF 5% (-3–12%)], were risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 but shopping, hospitality and leisure were not. Following the lifting of restrictions, among 11,413 participants (493 infections), work [(aOR 1.35 (1.11–1.64), aPAF 17% (6–26%)] and transport [(aOR 1.27 (1.04–1.57), aPAF 12% (2–22%)] contributed most, with indoor hospitality [(aOR 1.21 (0.98–1.48), aPAF 7% (-1–15%)] and leisure [(aOR 1.24 (1.02–1.51), aPAF 10% (1–18%)] increasing. During the Omicron variant, with individuals more socially engaged, among 11,964 participants (2335 infections), work [(aOR 1.28 (1.16–1.41), aPAF (11% (7–15%)] and transport [(aOR 1.16 (1.04–1.28), aPAF 6% (2–9%)] remained important but indoor hospitality [(aOR 1.43 (1.26–1.62), aPAF 20% (13–26%)] and leisure [(aOR 1.35 (1.22–1.48), aPAF 10% (7–14%)] dominated. // Conclusions: Work and public transport were important to transmissions throughout the pandemic with hospitality and leisure’s contribution increasing as restrictions were lifted, highlighting the importance of restricting leisure and hospitality alongside advising working from home, when facing a highly infectious and virulent respiratory infection

Stochastic Hysteresis and Resonance in a Kinetic Ising System

We study hysteresis for a two-dimensional, spin-1/2, nearest-neighbor, kinetic Ising ferromagnet in an oscillating field, using Monte Carlo simulations and analytical theory. Attention is focused on small systems and weak field amplitudes at a temperature below $T_{c}$. For these restricted parameters, the magnetization switches through random nucleation of a single droplet of spins aligned with the applied field. We analyze the stochastic hysteresis observed in this parameter regime, using time-dependent nucleation theory and the theory of variable-rate Markov processes. The theory enables us to accurately predict the results of extensive Monte Carlo simulations, without the use of any adjustable parameters. The stochastic response is qualitatively different from what is observed, either in mean-field models or in simulations of larger spatially extended systems. We consider the frequency dependence of the probability density for the hysteresis-loop area and show that its average slowly crosses over to a logarithmic decay with frequency and amplitude for asymptotically low frequencies. Both the average loop area and the residence-time distributions for the magnetization show evidence of stochastic resonance. We also demonstrate a connection between the residence-time distributions and the power spectral densities of the magnetization time series. In addition to their significance for the interpretation of recent experiments in condensed-matter physics, including studies of switching in ferromagnetic and ferroelectric nanoparticles and ultrathin films, our results are relevant to the general theory of periodically driven arrays of coupled, bistable systems with stochastic noise.Comment: 35 pages. Submitted to Phys. Rev. E Minor revisions to the text and updated reference

Differential Risk of SARS-CoV-2 Infection by Occupation: Evidence from the Virus Watch prospective cohort study in England and Wales

BACKGROUND: Workers across different occupations vary in their risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, but the direct contribution of occupation to this relationship is unclear. This study aimed to investigate how infection risk differed across occupational groups in England and Wales up to April 2022, after adjustment for potential confounding and stratification by pandemic phase. METHODS: Data from 15,190 employed/self-employed participants in the Virus Watch prospective cohort study were used to generate risk ratios for virologically- or serologically-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection using robust Poisson regression, adjusting for socio-demographic and health-related factors and non-work public activities. We calculated attributable fractions (AF) amongst the exposed for belonging to each occupational group based on adjusted risk ratios (aRR). RESULTS: Increased risk was seen in nurses (aRR = 1.44, 1.25-1.65; AF = 30%, 20-39%), doctors (aRR = 1.33, 1.08-1.65; AF = 25%, 7-39%), carers (1.45, 1.19-1.76; AF = 31%, 16-43%), primary school teachers (aRR = 1.67, 1.42- 1.96; AF = 40%, 30-49%), secondary school teachers (aRR = 1.48, 1.26-1.72; AF = 32%, 21-42%), and teaching support occupations (aRR = 1.42, 1.23-1.64; AF = 29%, 18-39%) compared to office-based professional occupations. Differential risk was apparent in the earlier phases (Feb 2020-May 2021) and attenuated later (June-October 2021) for most groups, although teachers and teaching support workers demonstrated persistently elevated risk across waves. CONCLUSIONS: Occupational differences in SARS-CoV-2 infection risk vary over time and are robust to adjustment for socio-demographic, health-related, and non-workplace activity-related potential confounders. Direct investigation into workplace factors underlying elevated risk and how these change over time is needed to inform occupational health interventions