Methods of estimating shale gas resources - Comparison, evaluation and implications

Estimates of technically recoverable shale gas resources remain highly uncertain, even in regions with a relatively long history of shale gas production. This paper examines the reasons for these uncertainties, focusing in particular on the methods used to derive resource estimates. Such estimates can be based upon the extrapolation of previous production experience in developed areas, or from the geological appraisal of undeveloped areas. The paper assesses the strengths and weaknesses of these methods, the level of uncertainty in the results and the implications of this for current policy debates. We conclude that there are substantial difficulties in assessing the recoverable volumes of shale gas and that current resource estimates should be treated with considerable caution. Most existing studies lack transparency or a rigorous approach to assessing uncertainty and provide estimates that are highly sensitive to key variables that are poorly defined - such as the assumed ratio of gas-in-place to recovered gas (the ‘recovery factor’) and the assumed ultimate recovery from individual wells. To illustrate the uncertainties both within and between different methodological approaches, we provide case studies of resource estimates for the Marcellus shale in the US and three basins in India

Policy mixes for incumbency: the destructive recreation of renewable energy, shale gas 'fracking,' and nuclear power in the United Kingdom

The notion of a ‘policy mix’ can describe interactions across a wide range of innovation policies, including ‘motors for creation’ as well as for ‘destruction’. This paper focuses on the United Kingdom’s (UK) ‘new policy direction’ that has weakened support for renewables and energy efficiency schemes while strengthening promotion of nuclear power and hydraulic fracturing for natural gas (‘fracking’). The paper argues that a ‘policy apparatus for incumbency’ is emerging which strengthens key regimebased technologies while arguably damaging emerging niche innovations. Basing the discussion around the three technology-based cases of renewable energy and efficiency, fracking, and nuclear power, this paper refers to this process as “destructive recreation”. Our study raises questions over the extent to which policymaking in the energy field is not so much driven by stated aims around sustainability transitions, as by other policy drivers. It investigates different ‘strategies of incumbency’ including ‘securitization’, ‘masking’, ‘reinvention’, and ‘capture.’ It suggests that analytical frameworks should extend beyond the particular sectors in focus, with notions of what counts as a relevant ‘policy maker’ correspondingly also expanded, in order to explore a wider range of nodes and critical junctures as entry points for understanding how relations of incumbency are forged and reproduced