Supply chain forecasting when information is not shared

The operations management literature is abundant in discussions on the benefits of information sharing in supply chains. However, there are many supply chains where information may not be shared due to constraints such as compatibility of information systems, information quality, trust and confidentiality. Furthermore, a steady stream of papers has explored a phenomenon known as Downstream Demand Inference (DDI) where the upstream member in a supply chain can infer the downstream demand without the need for a formal information sharing mechanism. Recent research has shown that, under more realistic circumstances, DDI is not possible with optimal forecasting methods or Single Exponential Smoothing but is possible when supply chains use a Simple Moving Average (SMA) method. In this paper, we evaluate a simple DDI strategy based on SMA for supply chains where information cannot be shared. This strategy allows the upstream member in the supply chain to infer the consumer demand mathematically rather than it being shared. We compare the DDI strategy with the No Information Sharing (NIS) strategy and an optimal Forecast Information Sharing (FIS) strategy in the supply chain. The comparison is made analytically and by experimentation on real sales data from a major European supermarket located in Germany. We show that using the DDI strategy improves on NIS by reducing the Mean Square Error (MSE) of the forecasts, and cutting inventory costs in the supply chain

A periodic inventory system of intermittent demand items with fixed lifetimes

Perishable items with a limited lifespan and intermittent/erratic consumption are found in a variety of industrial settings: dealing with such items is challenging for inventory managers. In this study, a periodic inventory control system is analysed, in which items are characterised by intermittent demand and known expiration dates. We propose a new inventory management method, considering both perishability and intermittency constraints. The new method is a modification of a method proposed in the literature, which uses a periodic order-up-to-level inventory policy and a compound Bernoulli demand. We derive the analytical expression of the fill rate and propose a computational procedure to calculate the optimal solution. A comparative numerical analysis is conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed solution against the standard inventory control method, which does not take into account perishability. The proposed method leads to a bias that is only affected by demand size, in contrast to the standard method which is impacted by more severe biases driven by intermittence and periods before expiration

Scientific investigations in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea during the 1974-1975 Calypso cruise, parts 1 and 2

The distribution and concentrations of the standing crop of phytoplankton and nutrient salts in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea were investigated to provide ground truth for correlating temperature and chlorophyll-a measurements with observations from NASA U-2 aircraft equipped with specially designed sensors for measuring ocean color phenomena. The physical, chemical, and biological data obtained is summarized. Sampling procedures and methods used for determining plant pigments, species composition of phytoplankton, nutrient salt analysis, and the euphotic zones are described

Self-avoiding walks and connective constants

The connective constant $\mu(G)$ of a quasi-transitive graph $G$ is the asymptotic growth rate of the number of self-avoiding walks (SAWs) on $G$ from a given starting vertex. We survey several aspects of the relationship between the connective constant and the underlying graph $G$. $\bullet$ We present upper and lower bounds for $\mu$ in terms of the vertex-degree and girth of a transitive graph. $\bullet$ We discuss the question of whether $\mu\ge\phi$ for transitive cubic graphs (where $\phi$ denotes the golden mean), and we introduce the Fisher transformation for SAWs (that is, the replacement of vertices by triangles). $\bullet$ We present strict inequalities for the connective constants $\mu(G)$ of transitive graphs $G$, as $G$ varies. $\bullet$ As a consequence of the last, the connective constant of a Cayley graph of a finitely generated group decreases strictly when a new relator is added, and increases strictly when a non-trivial group element is declared to be a further generator. $\bullet$ We describe so-called graph height functions within an account of "bridges" for quasi-transitive graphs, and indicate that the bridge constant equals the connective constant when the graph has a unimodular graph height function. $\bullet$ A partial answer is given to the question of the locality of connective constants, based around the existence of unimodular graph height functions. $\bullet$ Examples are presented of Cayley graphs of finitely presented groups that possess graph height functions (that are, in addition, harmonic and unimodular), and that do not. $\bullet$ The review closes with a brief account of the "speed" of SAW.Comment: Accepted version. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1304.721

The history of degenerate (bipartite) extremal graph problems

This paper is a survey on Extremal Graph Theory, primarily focusing on the case when one of the excluded graphs is bipartite. On one hand we give an introduction to this field and also describe many important results, methods, problems, and constructions.Comment: 97 pages, 11 figures, many problems. This is the preliminary version of our survey presented in Erdos 100. In this version 2 only a citation was complete

Sensitivity of a tonne-scale NEXT detector for neutrinoless double beta decay searches

The Neutrino Experiment with a Xenon TPC (NEXT) searches for the neutrinoless double-beta decay of Xe-136 using high-pressure xenon gas TPCs with electroluminescent amplification. A scaled-up version of this technology with about 1 tonne of enriched xenon could reach in less than 5 years of operation a sensitivity to the half-life of neutrinoless double-beta decay decay better than 1E27 years, improving the current limits by at least one order of magnitude. This prediction is based on a well-understood background model dominated by radiogenic sources. The detector concept presented here represents a first step on a compelling path towards sensitivity to the parameter space defined by the inverted ordering of neutrino masses, and beyond.Comment: 22 pages, 11 figure

Technical Design Report for the PANDA Solenoid and Dipole Spectrometer Magnets

This document is the Technical Design Report covering the two large spectrometer magnets of the PANDA detector set-up. It shows the conceptual design of the magnets and their anticipated performance. It precedes the tender and procurement of the magnets and, hence, is subject to possible modifications arising during this process.Comment: 10 pages, 14MB, accepted by FAIR STI in May 2009, editors: Inti Lehmann (chair), Andrea Bersani, Yuri Lobanov, Jost Luehning, Jerzy Smyrski, Technical Coordiantor: Lars Schmitt, Bernd Lewandowski (deputy), Spokespersons: Ulrich Wiedner, Paola Gianotti (deputy

Feasibility studies of time-like proton electromagnetic form factors at PANDA at FAIR

Simulation results for future measurements of electromagnetic proton form factors at \PANDA (FAIR) within the PandaRoot software framework are reported. The statistical precision with which the proton form factors can be determined is estimated. The signal channel $\bar p p \to e^+ e^-$ is studied on the basis of two different but consistent procedures. The suppression of the main background channel, $\textit{i.e.}$ $\bar p p \to \pi^+ \pi^-$, is studied. Furthermore, the background versus signal efficiency, statistical and systematical uncertainties on the extracted proton form factors are evaluated using two different procedures. The results are consistent with those of a previous simulation study using an older, simplified framework. However, a slightly better precision is achieved in the PandaRoot study in a large range of momentum transfer, assuming the nominal beam conditions and detector performance

Anti-calmodulins and Tricyclic Adjuvants in Pain Therapy Block the TRPV1 Channel

Ca2+-loaded calmodulin normally inhibits multiple Ca2+-channels upon dangerous elevation of intracellular Ca2+ and protects cells from Ca2+-cytotoxicity, so blocking of calmodulin should theoretically lead to uncontrolled elevation of intracellular Ca2+. Paradoxically, classical anti-psychotic, anti-calmodulin drugs were noted here to inhibit Ca2+-uptake via the vanilloid inducible Ca2+-channel/inflamatory pain receptor 1 (TRPV1), which suggests that calmodulin inhibitors may block pore formation and Ca2+ entry. Functional assays on TRPV1 expressing cells support direct, dose-dependent inhibition of vanilloid-induced 45Ca2+-uptake at µM concentrations: calmidazolium (broad range)≥trifluoperazine (narrow range)>chlorpromazine/amitriptyline>fluphenazine>>W-7 and W-13 (only partially). Most likely a short acidic domain at the pore loop of the channel orifice functions as binding site either for Ca2+ or anti-calmodulin drugs. Camstatin, a selective peptide blocker of calmodulin, inhibits vanilloid-induced Ca2+-uptake in intact TRPV1+ cells, and suggests an extracellular site of inhibition. TRPV1+, inflammatory pain-conferring nociceptive neurons from sensory ganglia, were blocked by various anti-psychotic and anti-calmodulin drugs. Among them, calmidazolium, the most effective calmodulin agonist, blocked Ca2+-entry by a non-competitive kinetics, affecting the TRPV1 at a different site than the vanilloid binding pocket. Data suggest that various calmodulin antagonists dock to an extracellular site, not found in other Ca2+-channels. Calmodulin antagonist-evoked inhibition of TRPV1 and NMDA receptors/Ca2+-channels was validated by microiontophoresis of calmidazolium to laminectomised rat monitored with extracellular single unit recordings in vivo. These unexpected findings may explain empirically noted efficacy of clinical pain adjuvant therapy that justify efforts to develop hits into painkillers, selective to sensory Ca2+-channels but not affecting motoneurons