Growth in densely populated Asia: implications for primary product exporters

Economic growth and integration in Asia is rapidly increasing the global economic importance of the region. To the extent that this growth continues and is strongest in natural resource-poor Asian economies, it will add to global demand for imports of primary products, to the benefit of (especially nearby) resource-abundant countries. How will global production, consumption and trade patterns change by 2030 in the course of such economic developments and structural changes? We address this question using the GTAP model and Version 8.1 of the 2007 GTAP database, together with supplementary data from a range of sources, to support projections of the global economy from 2007 to 2030 under various scenarios. Factor endowments and real gross domestic product are assumed to grow at exogenous rates, and trade-related policies are kept unchanged to generate a core baseline, which is compared with an alternative slower growth scenario. We also consider the impact of several policy changes aimed at increasing China's agricultural self-sufficiency relative to the 2030 baseline. Policy implications for countries of the Asia-Pacific region are drawn out in the final section

Screening attendance, age group and diabetic retinopathy level at first screen

AIMS: To report on the relationships between age at diagnosis of diabetes, time from registration with the screening programme to first diabetic eye screening and severity of diabetic retinopathy. METHODS: Data were extracted from four English screening programmes and from the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish programmes. Time from diagnosis of diabetes to first screening and age at diagnosis were calculated. RESULTS: Time from registration with the screening programme to first screening episode is strongly related to age at registration. Within 18 months of registration 89% of 3958 young people under 18 years of age and 81% of 391 293 people over 35 years of age were seen. In 19 058 people between 18 and 34 years of age, 80% coverage was not reached until 2 years and 9 months. The time from diagnosis of diabetes to first screening is positively associated with severity of disease (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: This report is the first that to demonstrate that those in the 18-34 year age group are least likely to attend promptly for screening after registration with a higher risk of referable diabetic retinopathy being present at the time of first screen. Date of diagnosis should be recorded and prodigious efforts made to screen all people promptly after diagnosis. Screening programmes should collect data on those who have not attended within one year of registration

Hypercomplex Integrable Systems

In this paper we study hypercomplex manifolds in four dimensions. Rather than using an approach based on differential forms, we develop a dual approach using vector fields. The condition on these vector fields may then be interpreted as Lax equations, exhibiting the integrability properties of such manifolds. A number of different field equations for such hypercomplex manifolds are derived, one of which is in Cauchy-Kovaleskaya form which enables a formal general solution to be given. Various other properties of the field equations and their solutions are studied, such as their symmetry properties and the associated hierarchy of conservation laws.Comment: Latex file, 19 page

Mud Origin, Characterisation and Human Activities (MOCHA): Final report

The cohesive sediments, which are frequently found in the Belgian nearshore zone (southern North Sea), are of different age such as tertiary clays and Holocene, modern and recently deposited muds. The area is characterised by a turbidity maximum. The source areas of the recently deposited muds and the effect of human impact vs. natural processes on the distribution and/or erosion of these sediments have been investigated using historic and recent bottom samples, in situ and remote sensing (satellite images) SPM concentration measurements, numerical modelling, GIS and clay mineral and microfossil analysis. The Schelde estuary, the potential erosion areas of cohesive sediments on the BCS and adjacent areas and the SPM transport through the Dover Strait have been considered as possible source areas.The historic bottom samples have been collected in the beginning of the 20th century, the quality of these samples and the meta-information is very high and they have proven to be a major reference to understand the evolution of the cohesive sediment distribution. The recent bottom samples consist of box core, Reineck core and Van Veen grab samples collected during the last 10 years. The processing of the historic and recent data on cohesive sediments was mainly based on field descriptions of the samples (consolidation, thickness) and morphological evolution. On some of the recent samples radioactive and gamma densitometric measurements have been carried out. During the processing the emphasis was put on the occurrence of thick layers (>30 cm) of freshly deposited to very soft consolidated mud and of clay and mud pebbles, because these sediments are witnesses of changes.Satellite images, in situ measurements and a 2D hydrodynamic numerical model have been combined to calculate the long term SPM transport through the Dover Strait and in the southern North Sea. The satellite images (SeaWiFS) provide synoptic views of SPM concentration. The representativness of SPM concentration maps derived from satellites for calculating long term transports has been investigated by comparing the SPM concentration variability from the in situ measurements with those of the satellite data. It is underlined that SPM concentration measurements should be carried out during at least one tidal cycle in high turbidity areas to obtain representative values of SPM concentration.Areas where the thickness of the Quaternary cover is less than 2.5 m were defined as potential erosion areas of Palaeogene clay containing deposits. In the framework of this project, the geological data related to the BCS have been reviewed and the relevant information was compiled into a GIS. This also included a small part of the French continental shelf. Additionally information was added from vibrocores analysis and Dutch geological data. Approximately 20 % of the BCS, 6 % of the small part of the French area and only 3% of the Dutch study area could possibly serve as a source for fine suspended sediments. Quaternary muds are mostly presented in the 2 eastern nearshore area; on the Dutch part they occur more offshore. Their occurrence represents 11% of the BCS and approximately 35% of the Rabsbank area Cretaceous microfossils are present in all samples and have been transported into the area with the residual water transport. Material from the east, in particular from the Eocene-Oligocene transitional strata, has been found in the eastern nearshore area up to about Oostende. This zone coincides with the extension of the Holocene mud and could indicate an erosion of these sediments and/or a transport of clay minerals from the Schelde estuary.Clay mineral analysis has been carried by two approaches in order to determine source areas. The results of the second approach show that no systematic differences in the clay mineralogy depending on geographic location could have been found within the samples. The results clearly prove the necessity of using more elaborate sample preparation procedures in examining the provenance of the mud deposits.Thick layers of fresh mud were deposited in the beginning of the 20th century mainly in a narrow band along the coast from about Nieuwpoort up to the mouth of the Westerschelde. These deposits were mainly the result of natural morphological changes. Today, most of the depositions of thick layers of fresh mud have been induced by anthropogenic operations, such as dumping, deepening of the navigation channels and construction and extension of the port of Zeebrugge. Comparing the actual situation with the situation 100 years ago reveals that the area around Zeebrugge where fresh mud is deposited extends more offshore today

Glucose-6-Phosphate Dehydrogenase Deficiency, Chlorproguanil-Dapsone with Artesunate and Post-treatment Haemolysis in African children treated for uncomplicated Malaria

Malaria is a leading cause of mortality, particularly in sub-Saharan African children. Prompt and efficacious treatment is important as patients may progress within a few hours to severe and possibly fatal disease. Chlorproguanil-dapsone-artesunate (CDA) was a promising artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT), but its development was prematurely stopped because of safety concerns secondary to its associated risk of haemolytic anaemia in glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD)-deficient individuals. The objective of the study was to assess whether CDA treatment and G6PD deficiency are risk factors for a post-treatment haemoglobin drop in African children<5 years of age with uncomplicated malaria

‘Forgotten Europeans’: transnational minority activism in the age of European integration

YesThis article examines transnational activism by coalitions of national minorities in Europe from the early 20th century to the present, setting this within the broader ‘security versus democracy dilemma’ that continues to surround international discussions on minority rights. Specifically, we analyse two organisations – the European Nationalities Congress (1925–1938) and the Federal Union of European Nationalities (1949–) – which, while linked, have never been subject to a detailed comparison based on primary sources. In so far as comparisons do exist, they present these bodies in highly negative terms, as mere fronts for inherently particularistic nationalisms that threaten political stability, state integrity and peace. Our more in‐depth analysis provides a fresh and more nuanced perspective: it shows that, in both cases, concepts of European integration and ‘unity in diversity’ have provided the motivating goals and frameworks for transnational movements advocating common rights for all minorities and seeking positive interaction with the interstate world

Simulating rewetting events in intermittent rivers and ephemeral streams: A global analysis of leached nutrients and organic matter

Climate change and human pressures are changing the global distribution and the extent of intermittent rivers and ephemeral streams (IRES), which comprise half of the global river network area. IRES are characterized by periods of flow cessation, during which channel substrates accumulate and undergo physico-chemical changes (preconditioning), and periods of flow resumption, when these substrates are rewetted and release pulses of dissolved nutrients and organic matter (OM). However, there are no estimates of the amounts and quality of leached substances, nor is there information on the underlying environmental constraints operating at the global scale. We experimentally simulated, under standard laboratory conditions, rewetting of leaves, riverbed sediments, and epilithic biofilms collected during the dry phase across 205 IRES from five major climate zones. We determined the amounts and qualitative characteristics of the leached nutrients and OM, and estimated their areal fluxes from riverbeds. In addition, we evaluated the variance in leachate characteristics in relation to selected environmental variables and substrate characteristics. We found that sediments, due to their large quantities within riverbeds, contribute most to the overall flux of dissolved substances during rewetting events (56% 98%), and that flux rates distinctly differ among climate zones. Dissolved organic carbon, phenolics, and nitrate contributed most to the areal fluxes. The largest amounts of leached substances were found in the continental climate zone, coinciding with the lowest potential bioavailability of the leached OM. The opposite pattern was found in the arid zone. Environmental variables expected to be modified under climate change (i.e. potential evapotranspiration, aridity, dry period duration, land use) were correlated with the amount of leached substances, with the strongest relationship found for sediments. These results show that the role of IRES should be accounted for in global biogeochemical cycles, especially because prevalence of IRES will increase due to increasing severity of drying events. © 2019 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley and Sons LtdThis work was carried out within the SMART Joint Doctorate Programme “Science for the MAnagement of Rivers and their Tidal systems” funded by the Erasmus Mundus Joint Doctorate Programme of the European Union (http://www.riverscience.it). O.S. was also supported by a grant for a short‐term scientific mission to the University of the Basque Country, Spain, within the COST Action CA15113 (SMIRES, Science and Management of Intermittent Rivers and Ephemeral Streams, www.smires.eu). O.S. is thankful for a partial support from IGB equal opportunity fund for young female scientists and DFG (SU 405/10‐1). F.A. was supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation grants no PP00P3_179089 and PP00P3_150698 and the URPP Global Change and Biodiversity, University of Zurich. S.D.L. has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska‐Curie grant agreement no. 748625. R.F. acknowledges support of the CONICYT/FONDAP/15130015 Chile