Integrating public risk perception into formal natural hazard risk assessment

International audienceAn urgent need to take perception into account for risk assessment has been pointed out by relevant literature, its impact in terms of risk-related behaviour by individuals is obvious. This study represents an effort to overcome the broadly discussed question of whether risk perception is quantifiable or not by proposing a still simple but applicable methodology. A novel approach is elaborated to obtain a more accurate and comprehensive quantification of risk in comparison to present formal risk evaluation practice. A consideration of relevant factors enables a explicit quantification of individual risk perception and evaluation. The model approach integrates the effective individual risk reff and a weighted mean of relevant perception affecting factors PAF. The relevant PAF cover voluntariness of risk-taking, individual reducibility of risk, knowledge and experience, endangerment, subjective damage rating and subjective recurrence frequency perception. The approach assigns an individual weight to each PAF to represent its impact magnitude. The quantification of these weights is target-group-dependent (e.g. experts, laypersons) and may be effected by psychometric methods. The novel approach is subject to a plausibility check using data from an expert-workshop. A first model application is conducted by means of data of an empirical risk perception study in Western Germany to deduce PAF and weight quantification as well as to confirm and evaluate model applicbility and flexibility. Main fields of application will be a quantification of risk perception by individual persons in a formal and technical way e.g. for the purpose of risk communication issues in illustrating differing perspectives of experts and non-experts. For decision making processes this model will have to be applied with caution, since it is by definition not designed to quantify risk acceptance or risk evaluation. The approach may well explain how risk perception differs, but not why it differs. The formal model generates only "snap shots" and considers neither the socio-cultural nor the historical context of risk perception, since it is a highly individualistic and non-contextual approach

Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

This Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) has been jointly coordinated by Working Groups I (WGI) and II (WGII) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The report focuses on the relationship between climate change and extreme weather and climate events, the impacts of such events, and the strategies to manage the associated risks. The IPCC was jointly established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), in particular to assess in a comprehensive, objective, and transparent manner all the relevant scientific, technical, and socioeconomic information to contribute in understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, the potential impacts, and the adaptation and mitigation options. Beginning in 1990, the IPCC has produced a series of Assessment Reports, Special Reports, Technical Papers, methodologies, and other key documents which have since become the standard references for policymakers and scientists.This Special Report, in particular, contributes to frame the challenge of dealing with extreme weather and climate events as an issue in decisionmaking under uncertainty, analyzing response in the context of risk management. The report consists of nine chapters, covering risk management; observed and projected changes in extreme weather and climate events; exposure and vulnerability to as well as losses resulting from such events; adaptation options from the local to the international scale; the role of sustainable development in modulating risks; and insights from specific case studies

A review of uncertainties in global temperature projections over the twenty-first century

Quantification of the uncertainties in future climate projections is crucial for the implementation of climate policies. Here a review of projections of global temperature change over the twenty-first century is provided for the six illustrative emission scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) that assume no policy intervention, based on the latest generation of coupled general circulation models, climate models of intermediate complexity, and simple models, and uncertainty ranges and probabilistic projections from various published methods and models are assessed. Despite substantial improvements in climate models, projections for given scenarios on average have not changed much in recent years. Recent progress has, however, increased the confidence in uncertainty estimates and now allows a better separation of the uncertainties introduced by scenarios, physical feedbacks, carbon cycle, and structural uncertainty. Projection uncertainties are now constrained by observations and therefore consistent with past observed trends and patterns. Future trends in global temperature resulting from anthropogenic forcing over the next few decades are found to be comparably well constrained. Uncertainties for projections on the century time scale, when accounting for structural and feedback uncertainties, are larger than captured in single models or methods. This is due to differences in the models, the sources of uncertainty taken into account, the type of observational constraints used, and the statistical assumptions made. It is shown that as an approximation, the relative uncertainty range for projected warming in 2100 is the same for all scenarios. Inclusion of uncertainties in carbon cycle–climate feedbacks extends the upper bound of the uncertainty range by more than the lower bound

TGF-b2 induction regulates invasiveness of theileria-transformed leukocytes and disease susceptibility

Theileria parasites invade and transform bovine leukocytes causing either East Coast fever (T. parva), or tropical theileriosis (T. annulata). Susceptible animals usually die within weeks of infection, but indigenous infected cattle show markedly reduced pathology, suggesting that host genetic factors may cause disease susceptibility. Attenuated live vaccines are widely used to control tropical theileriosis and attenuation is associated with reduced invasiveness of infected macrophages in vitro. Disease pathogenesis is therefore linked to aggressive invasiveness, rather than uncontrolled proliferation of Theileria-infected leukocytes. We show that the invasive potential of Theileria-transformed leukocytes involves TGF-b signalling. Attenuated live vaccine lines express reduced TGF-b2 and their invasiveness can be rescued with exogenous TGF-b. Importantly, infected macrophages from disease susceptible Holstein-Friesian (HF) cows express more TGF-b2 and traverse Matrigel with great efficiency compared to those from disease-resistant Sahiwal cattle. Thus, TGF-b2 levels correlate with disease susceptibility. Using fluorescence and time-lapse video microscopy we show that Theileria-infected, disease-susceptible HF macrophages exhibit increased actin dynamics in their lamellipodia and podosomal adhesion structures and develop more membrane blebs. TGF-b2-associated invasiveness in HF macrophages has a transcription-independent element that relies on cytoskeleton remodelling via activation of Rho kinase (ROCK). We propose that a TGF-b autocrine loop confers an amoeboid-like motility on Theileria-infected leukocytes, which combines with MMP-dependent motility to drive invasiveness and virulence

Photochemistry of Furyl- and Thienyldiazomethanes: Spectroscopic Characterization of Triplet 3-Thienylcarbene

Photolysis (λ \u3e 543 nm) of 3-thienyldiazomethane (1), matrix isolated in Ar or N2 at 10 K, yields triplet 3-thienylcarbene (13) and α-thial-methylenecyclopropene (9). Carbene 13 was characterized by IR, UV/vis, and EPR spectroscopy. The conformational isomers of 3-thienylcarbene (s-E and s-Z) exhibit an unusually large difference in zero-field splitting parameters in the triplet EPR spectrum (|D/hc| = 0.508 cm–1, |E/hc| = 0.0554 cm–1; |D/hc| = 0.579 cm–1, |E/hc| = 0.0315 cm–1). Natural Bond Orbital (NBO) calculations reveal substantially differing spin densities in the 3-thienyl ring at the positions adjacent to the carbene center, which is one factor contributing to the large difference in D values. NBO calculations also reveal a stabilizing interaction between the sp orbital of the carbene carbon in the s-Z rotamer of 13 and the antibonding σ orbital between sulfur and the neighboring carbon—an interaction that is not observed in the s-E rotamer of 13. In contrast to the EPR spectra, the electronic absorption spectra of the rotamers of triplet 3-thienylcarbene (13) are indistinguishable under our experimental conditions. The carbene exhibits a weak electronic absorption in the visible spectrum (λmax = 467 nm) that is characteristic of triplet arylcarbenes. Although studies of 2-thienyldiazomethane (2), 3-furyldiazomethane (3), or 2-furyldiazomethane (4) provided further insight into the photochemical interconversions among C5H4S or C5H4O isomers, these studies did not lead to the spectroscopic detection of the corresponding triplet carbenes (2-thienylcarbene (11), 3-furylcarbene (23), or 2-furylcarbene (22), respectively)

Framework, principles and recommendations for utilising participatory methodologies in the co-creation and evaluation of public health interventions

Background: Due to the chronic disease burden on society, there is a need for preventive public health interventions to stimulate society towards a healthier lifestyle. To deal with the complex variability between individual lifestyles and settings, collaborating with end-users to develop interventions tailored to their unique circumstances has been suggested as a potential way to improve effectiveness and adherence. Co-creation of public health interventions using participatory methodologies has shown promise but lacks a framework to make this process systematic. The aim of this paper was to identify and set key principles and recommendations for systematically applying participatory methodologies to co-create and evaluate public health interventions. Methods: These principles and recommendations were derived using an iterative reflection process, combining key learning from published literature in addition to critical reflection on three case studies conducted by research groups in three European institutions, all of whom have expertise in co-creating public health interventions using different participatory methodologies. Results: Key principles and recommendations for using participatory methodologies in public health intervention co-creation are presented for the stages of: Planning (framing the aim of the study and identifying the appropriate sampling strategy); Conducting (defining the procedure, in addition to manifesting ownership); Evaluating (the process and the effectiveness) and Reporting (providing guidelines to report the findings). Three scaling models are proposed to demonstrate how to scale locally developed interventions to a population level. Conclusions: These recommendations aim to facilitate public health intervention co-creation and evaluation utilising participatory methodologies by ensuring the process is systematic and reproducible

Gaining the PROMIS perspective from children with nephrotic syndrome: a Midwest pediatric nephrology consortium study

Background and objectives Nephrotic syndrome (NS) represents a common disease in pediatric nephrology typified by a relapsing and remitting course and characterized by the presence of edema that can significantly affect the health-related quality of life in children and adolescents. The PROMIS pediatric measures were constructed to be publically available, efficient, precise, and valid across a variety of diseases to assess patient reports of symptoms and quality of life. This study was designed to evaluate the ability of children and adolescents with NS to complete the PROMIS assessment via computer and to initiate validity assessments of the short forms and full item banks in pediatric NS. Successful measurement of patient reported outcomes will contribute to our understanding of the impact of NS on children and adolescents. Design This cross-sectional study included 151 children and adolescents 8-17 years old with NS from 16 participating institutions in North America. The children completed the PROMIS pediatric depression, anxiety, social-peer relationships, pain interference, fatigue, mobility and upper extremity functioning measures using a web-based interface. Responses were compared between patients experiencing active NS (n = 53) defined by the presence of edema and patients with inactive NS (n = 96) defined by the absence of edema. Results All 151 children and adolescents were successfully able to complete the PROMIS assessment via computer. As hypothesized, the children and adolescents with active NS were significantly different on 4 self-reported measures (anxiety, pain interference, fatigue, and mobility). Depression, peer relationships, and upper extremity functioning were not different between children with active vs. inactive NS. Multivariate analysis showed that the PROMIS instruments remained sensitive to NS disease activity after adjusting for demographic characteristics. Conclusions Children and adolescents with NS were able to successfully complete the PROMIS instrument using a web-based interface. The computer based pediatric PROMIS measurement effectively discriminated between children and adolescents with active and inactive NS. The domain scores found in this study are consistent with previous reports investigating the health-related quality of life in children and adolescents with NS. This study establishes known-group validity and feasibility for PROMIS pediatric measures in children and adolescents with NS

Toxoplasma gondii effectors are master regulators of the inflammatory response

Toxoplasma is a highly successful parasite that establishes a life-long chronic infection. To do this, it must carefully regulate immune activation and host cell effector mechanisms. Here we review the latest developments in our understanding of how Toxoplasma counteracts the immune response of the host, and in some cases provokes it, through the use of specific parasite effector proteins. An emerging theme from these discoveries is that Toxoplasma effectors are master regulators of the pro-inflammatory response, which elicits many of the toxoplasmacidal mechanisms of the host. We speculate that combinations of these effectors present in certain Toxoplasma strains work to maintain an optimal parasite burden in different hosts to ensure parasite transmission.Knights Templar Eye Foundation, Inc.American Heart Association (0835099N)Massachusetts Life Sciences Center (New Investigator Award)Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology (SMART)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH RO1-AI080621)New England Regional Center of Excellence for Biodefense and Emerging Infectious Diseases (NERCE Developmental Grant)National Cancer Institute (U.S.) (Irvington Postdoctoral Fellowship Program

Crystallographic Evidence of Drastic Conformational Changes in the Active Site of a Flavin-Dependent

The soil actinomycete Kutzneria sp. 744 produces a class of highly decorated hexadepsipeptides, which represent a new chemical scaffold that has both antimicrobial and antifungal properties. These natural products, known as kutznerides, are created via nonribosomal peptide synthesis using various derivatized amino acids. The piperazic acid moiety contained in the kutzneride scaffold, which is vital for its antibiotic activity, has been shown to derive from the hydroxylated product of l-ornithine, l-N5-hydroxyornithine. The production of this hydroxylated species is catalyzed by the action of an FAD- and NAD(P)H-dependent N-hydroxylase known as KtzI. We have been able to structurally characterize KtzI in several states along its catalytic trajectory, and by pairing these snapshots with the biochemical and structural data already available for this enzyme class, we propose a structurally based reaction mechanism that includes novel conformational changes of both the protein backbone and the flavin cofactor. Further, we were able to recapitulate these conformational changes in the protein crystal, displaying their chemical competence. Our series of structures, with corroborating biochemical and spectroscopic data collected by us and others, affords mechanistic insight into this relatively new class of flavin-dependent hydroxylases and adds another layer to the complexity of flavoenzymes.National Center for Research Resources (U.S.) (P41RR012408)National Institute of General Medical Sciences (U.S.) (P41GM103473