A penalized framework for distributed lag non-linear models.

: Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) are a modelling tool for describing potentially non-linear and delayed dependencies. Here, we illustrate an extension of the DLNM framework through the use of penalized splines within generalized additive models (GAM). This extension offers built-in model selection procedures and the possibility of accommodating assumptions on the shape of the lag structure through specific penalties. In addition, this framework includes, as special cases, simpler models previously proposed for linear relationships (DLMs). Alternative versions of penalized DLNMs are compared with each other and with the standard unpenalized version in a simulation study. Results show that this penalized extension to the DLNM class provides greater flexibility and improved inferential properties. The framework exploits recent theoretical developments of GAMs and is implemented using efficient routines within freely available software. Real-data applications are illustrated through two reproducible examples in time series and survival analysis.<br/

Relationship of body condition score and blood urea and ammonia to pregnancy in Italian Mediterranean buffaloes

The relationship of body condition score ( BCS) and blood urea and ammonia to pregnancy outcome was examined in Italian Mediterranean Buffalo cows mated by AI. The study was conducted on 150 buffaloes at 145 +/- 83 days in milk that were fed a diet comprising 14.8% crude protein, 0.9 milk forage units . kg(-1) dry matter and a non- structural carbohydrate/ crude protein ratio of 2.14. The stage of the oestrous cycle was synchronised by the Ovsynch- TAI programme and blood urea and ammonia levels were assessed on the day of AI. Energy corrected milk ( ECM) production and BCS were recorded bi- weekly. The pregnancy risk was 46.7% and was slightly lower in buffaloes with BCS 7.5. There were no significant differences in ECM, urea and ammonia between pregnant and non- pregnant buffaloes. However, pregnancy outcome was higher ( P = 0.02) in buffaloes with blood urea < 6.83 mmol . L-1. The likelihood of pregnancy for buffaloes with low urea blood level was 2.6 greater than for high urea level and exposure to a high urea level lowered the probability of pregnancy by about 0.25. The findings indicate that buffaloes are similar to cattle and increased blood levels of urea are associated with reduced fertility when animals are mated by AI

In vitro embryo production in buffalo: current situation and future perspectives

In the last few years, there has been an increasing interest in the in vitro embryo production technologies for faster propagation of superior germplasm in buffalo, due to the low efficiency of multiple ovulation and embryo transfer programs. Early attempts to produce buffalo embryos in vitro have been made by using procedures that were proven effective in cattle. However, the acquisition of more specific information on oocyte and embryo culture requirements in vitro in this species has resulted in an improved efficiency over the years. Although the IVEP efficiency has enhanced, as indicated by competitive embryo yields, pregnancy rate and development to term are still poor. Furthermore, the optimization of embryo cryopreservation methods in this species is critical for the diffusion of ET procedures in the field. The present review intends to describe the state of the art of IVEP in buffalo species, emphasizing the advances achieved and the limitations still to overcome

Water Supply Interruptions and Suspected Cholera Incidence: A Time-Series Regression in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Data that underpins a publication on water supply interruptions and suspected Cholera incidenc

AGILE observation of a gamma-ray flare from the blazar 3C 279

Context. We report the detection by the AGILE satellite of an intense gamma-ray flare from the gamma-ray source 3EG J1255-0549, associated to the Flat Spectrum Radio Quasar 3C 279, during the AGILE pointings towards the Virgo Region on 2007 July 9-13. Aims. The simultaneous optical, X-ray and gamma-ray covering allows us to study the spectral energy distribution (SED) and the theoretical models relative to the flaring episode of mid-July. Methods. AGILE observed the source during its Science Performance Verification Phase with its two co-aligned imagers: the Gamma- Ray Imaging Detector (GRID) and the hard X-ray imager (Super-AGILE) sensitive in the 30 MeV - 50 GeV and 18 - 60 keV respectively. During the AGILE observation the source was monitored simultaneously in optical band by the REM telescope and in the X-ray band by the Swift satellite through 4 ToO observations. Results. During 2007 July 9-13 July 2007, AGILE-GRID detected gamma-ray emission from 3C 279, with the source at ~2 deg from the center of the Field of View, with an average flux of (210+-38) 10^-8 ph cm^-2 s^-1 for energy above 100 MeV. No emission was detected by Super-AGILE, with a 3-sigma upper limit of 10 mCrab. During the observation lasted about 4 days no significative gamma-ray flux variation was observed. Conclusions. The Spectral Energy Distribution is modelled with a homogeneous one-zone Synchrotron Self Compton emission plus the contributions by external Compton scattering of direct disk radiation and, to a lesser extent, by external Compton scattering of photons from the Broad Line Region.Comment: Accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysic

Multiwavelength Evidence for Quasi-periodic Modulation in the Gamma-ray Blazar PG 1553+113

We report for the first time a gamma-ray and multi-wavelength nearly-periodic oscillation in an active galactic nucleus. Using the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) we have discovered an apparent quasi-periodicity in the gamma-ray flux (E >100 MeV) from the GeV/TeV BL Lac object PG 1553+113. The marginal significance of the 2.18 +/-0.08 year-period gamma-ray cycle is strengthened by correlated oscillations observed in radio and optical fluxes, through data collected in the OVRO, Tuorla, KAIT, and CSS monitoring programs and Swift UVOT. The optical cycle appearing in ~10 years of data has a similar period, while the 15 GHz oscillation is less regular than seen in the other bands. Further long-term multi-wavelength monitoring of this blazar may discriminate among the possible explanations for this quasi-periodicity.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures. Accepted to The Astrophysical Journal Letters. Corresponding authors: S. Ciprini (ASDC/INFN), S. Cutini (ASDC/INFN), S. Larsson (Stockholm Univ/KTH), A. Stamerra (INAF/SNS), D. J. Thompson (NASA GSFC

Detection of 16 Gamma-Ray Pulsars Through Blind Frequency Searches Using the Fermi LAT

Pulsars are rapidly-rotating, highly-magnetized neutron stars emitting radiation across the electromagnetic spectrum. Although there are more than 1800 known radio pulsars, until recently, only seven were observed to pulse in gamma rays and these were all discovered at other wavelengths. The Fermi Large Area Telescope makes it possible to pinpoint neutron stars through their gamma-ray pulsations. We report the detection of 16 gamma-ray pulsars in blind frequency searches using the LAT. Most of these pulsars are coincident with previously unidentified gamma-ray sources, and many are associated with supernova remnants. Direct detection of gamma-ray pulsars enables studies of emission mechanisms, population statistics and the energetics of pulsar wind nebulae and supernova remnants.Comment: Corresponding authors: Michael Dormody, Paul S. Ray, Pablo M. Saz Parkinson, Marcus Ziegle

Search for Early Gamma-ray Production in Supernovae Located in a Dense Circumstellar Medium with the Fermi LAT

Supernovae (SNe) exploding in a dense circumstellar medium (CSM) are hypothesized to accelerate cosmic rays in collisionless shocks and emit GeV gamma rays and TeV neutrinos on a time scale of several months. We perform the first systematic search for gamma-ray emission in Fermi LAT data in the energy range from 100 MeV to 300 GeV from the ensemble of 147 SNe Type IIn exploding in dense CSM. We search for a gamma-ray excess at each SNe location in a one year time window. In order to enhance a possible weak signal, we simultaneously study the closest and optically brightest sources of our sample in a joint-likelihood analysis in three different time windows (1 year, 6 months and 3 months). For the most promising source of the sample, SN 2010jl (PTF10aaxf), we repeat the analysis with an extended time window lasting 4.5 years. We do not find a significant excess in gamma rays for any individual source nor for the combined sources and provide model-independent flux upper limits for both cases. In addition, we derive limits on the gamma-ray luminosity and the ratio of gamma-ray-to-optical luminosity ratio as a function of the index of the proton injection spectrum assuming a generic gamma-ray production model. Furthermore, we present detailed flux predictions based on multi-wavelength observations and the corresponding flux upper limit at 95% confidence level (CL) for the source SN 2010jl (PTF10aaxf).Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ. Corresponding author: A. Franckowiak ([email protected]), updated author list and acknowledgement

Fermi detection of delayed GeV emission from the short GRB 081024B

We report on the detailed analysis of the high-energy extended emission from the short Gamma-Ray Burst (GRB) 081024B, detected by the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope. Historically, this represents the first clear detection of temporal extended emission from a short GRB. The light curve observed by the Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor lasts approximately 0.8 seconds whereas the emission in the Fermi Large Area Telescope lasts for about 3 seconds. Evidence of longer lasting high-energy emission associated with long bursts has been already reported by previous experiments. Our observations, together with the earlier reported study of the bright short GRB 090510, indicate similarities in the high-energy emission of short and long GRBs and open the path to new interpretations.Comment: 19 pages, 4 figures, 2 tables. Accepted for publication in Ap