Explicit modelling of SOA formation from α-pinene photooxidation: sensitivity to vapour pressure estimation

The sensitivity of the formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) to the estimated vapour pressures of the condensable oxidation products is explored. A highly detailed reaction scheme was generated for α-pinene photooxidation using the Generator for Explicit Chemistry and Kinetics of Organics in the Atmosphere (GECKO-A). Vapour pressures (P^(vap)) were estimated with three commonly used structure activity relationships. The values of P^(vap) were compared for the set of secondary species generated by GECKO-A to describe α-pinene oxidation. Discrepancies in the predicted vapour pressures were found to increase with the number of functional groups borne by the species. For semi-volatile organic compounds (i.e. organic species of interest for SOA formation), differences in the predicted Pvap range between a factor of 5 to 200 on average. The simulated SOA concentrations were compared to SOA observations in the Caltech chamber during three experiments performed under a range of NO_x conditions. While the model captures the qualitative features of SOA formation for the chamber experiments, SOA concentrations are systematically overestimated. For the conditions simulated, the modelled SOA speciation appears to be rather insensitive to the P^vap estimation method

Preformed and regenerated phosphate in ocean general circulation models: can right total concentrations be wrong?

Phosphate distributions simulated by seven state-of-the-art biogeochemical ocean circulation models are evaluated against observations of global ocean nutrient distributions. The biogeochemical models exhibit different structural complexities, ranging from simple nutrient-restoring to multi-nutrient NPZD type models. We evaluate the simulations using the observed volume distribution of phosphate. The errors in these simulated volume class distributions are significantly larger when preformed phosphate (or regenerated phosphate) rather than total phosphate is considered. Our analysis reveals that models can achieve similarly good fits to observed total phosphate distributions for a very different partitioning into preformed and regenerated nutrient components. This has implications for the strength and potential climate sensitivity of the simulated biological carbon pump. We suggest complementing the use of total nutrient distributions for assessing model skill by an evaluation of the respective preformed and regenerated nutrient components

Drivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem models

Past model studies have projected a global decrease in marine net primary production (NPP) over the 21st century, but these studies focused on the multi-model mean rather than on the large inter-model differences. Here, we analyze model-simulated changes in NPP for the 21st century under IPCC's high-emission scenario RCP8.5. We use a suite of nine coupled carbon–climate Earth system models with embedded marine ecosystem models and focus on the spread between the different models and the underlying reasons. Globally, NPP decreases in five out of the nine models over the course of the 21st century, while three show no significant trend and one even simulates an increase. The largest model spread occurs in the low latitudes (between 30° S and 30° N), with individual models simulating relative changes between −25 and +40 %. Of the seven models diagnosing a net decrease in NPP in the low latitudes, only three simulate this to be a consequence of the classical interpretation, i.e., a stronger nutrient limitation due to increased stratification leading to reduced phytoplankton growth. In the other four, warming-induced increases in phytoplankton growth outbalance the stronger nutrient limitation. However, temperature-driven increases in grazing and other loss processes cause a net decrease in phytoplankton biomass and reduce NPP despite higher growth rates. One model projects a strong increase in NPP in the low latitudes, caused by an intensification of the microbial loop, while NPP in the remaining model changes by less than 0.5 %. While models consistently project increases NPP in the Southern Ocean, the regional inter-model range is also very substantial. In most models, this increase in NPP is driven by temperature, but it is also modulated by changes in light, macronutrients and iron as well as grazing. Overall, current projections of future changes in global marine NPP are subject to large uncertainties and necessitate a dedicated and sustained effort to improve the models and the concepts and data that guide their developmen

Measurement of the Crab nebula polarization at 90 GHz as a calibrator for CMB experiments

CMB experiments aiming at a precise measurement of the CMB polarization, such as the Planck satellite, need a strong polarized absolute calibrator on the sky to accurately set the detectors polarization angle and the cross-polarization leakage. As the most intense polarized source in the microwave sky at angular scales of few arcminutes, the Crab nebula will be used for this purpose. Our goal was to measure the Crab nebula polarization characteristics at 90 GHz with unprecedented precision. The observations were carried out with the IRAM 30m telescope employing the correlation polarimeter XPOL and using two orthogonally polarized receivers. We processed the Stokes I, Q, and U maps from our observations in order to compute the polarization angle and linear polarization fraction. The first is almost constant in the region of maximum emission in polarization with a mean value of alpha_Sky=152.1+/-0.3 deg in equatorial coordinates, and the second is found to reach a maximum of Pi=30% for the most polarized pixels. We find that a CMB experiment having a 5 arcmin circular beam will see a mean polarization angle of alpha_Sky=149.9+/-0.2 deg and a mean polarization fraction of Pi=8.8+/-0.2%.Comment: Accepted for publication in A&A, 9 pages, 4 figure

The pre-launch Planck Sky Model: a model of sky emission at submillimetre to centimetre wavelengths

We present the Planck Sky Model (PSM), a parametric model for the generation of all-sky, few arcminute resolution maps of sky emission at submillimetre to centimetre wavelengths, in both intensity and polarisation. Several options are implemented to model the cosmic microwave background, Galactic diffuse emission (synchrotron, free-free, thermal and spinning dust, CO lines), Galactic H-II regions, extragalactic radio sources, dusty galaxies, and thermal and kinetic Sunyaev-Zeldovich signals from clusters of galaxies. Each component is simulated by means of educated interpolations/extrapolations of data sets available at the time of the launch of the Planck mission, complemented by state-of-the-art models of the emission. Distinctive features of the simulations are: spatially varying spectral properties of synchrotron and dust; different spectral parameters for each point source; modeling of the clustering properties of extragalactic sources and of the power spectrum of fluctuations in the cosmic infrared background. The PSM enables the production of random realizations of the sky emission, constrained to match observational data within their uncertainties, and is implemented in a software package that is regularly updated with incoming information from observations. The model is expected to serve as a useful tool for optimizing planned microwave and sub-millimetre surveys and to test data processing and analysis pipelines. It is, in particular, used for the development and validation of data analysis pipelines within the planck collaboration. A version of the software that can be used for simulating the observations for a variety of experiments is made available on a dedicated website.Comment: 35 pages, 31 figure

3C 286: a bright, compact, stable, and highly polarized calibrator for millimeter-wavelength observations

(Context.) A number of millimeter and submillimeter facilities with linear polarization observing capabilities have started operating during last years. These facilities, as well as other previous millimeter telescopes and interferometers, require bright and stable linear polarization calibrators to calibrate new instruments and to monitor their instrumental polarization. The current limited number of adequate calibrators implies difficulties in the acquisition of these calibration observations. (Aims.) Looking for additional linear polarization calibrators in the millimeter spectral range, in mid-2006 we started monitoring 3C 286, a standard and highly stable polarization calibrator for radio observations. (Methods.) Here we present the 3 and 1 mm monitoring observations obtained between September 2006 and January 2012 with the XPOL polarimeter on the IRAM 30 m Millimeter Telescope. (Results.) Our observations show that 3C 286 is a bright source of constant total flux with 3 mm flux density S_3mm = (0.91 \pm 0.02) Jy. The 3mm linear polarization degree (p_3mm =[13.5\pm0.3]%) and polarization angle (chi_3mm =[37.3\pm0.8]deg.,expressed in the equatorial coordinate system) are also constant during the time span of our observations. Although with poorer time sampling and signal-to-noise ratio, our 1 mm observations of 3C 286 are also reproduced by a constant source of 1 mm flux density (S_1mm = [0.30 \pm 0.03] Jy), polarization fraction (p_1mm = [14.4 \pm 1.8] %), and polarization angle (chi_1mm = [33.1 \pm 5.7]deg.). (Conclusions.) This, together with the previously known compact structure of 3C 286 -extended by ~3.5" in the sky- allow us to propose 3C 286 as a new calibrator for both single dish and interferometric polarization observations at 3 mm, and possibly at shorter wavelengths.Comment: Accepted for publication in A&A. 7 pages, 4 figures, 8 tables. Updated data sets with regard to previous version. New discussion about multi frequency properties of the source. Section 3.3, Figures 3 and 4, and Tables 7 and 8 are ne

Inconsistent strategies to spin up models in CMIP5: Implications for ocean biogeochemical model performance assessment

This is the final version of the article. Available from EGU via the DOI in this record.During the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) substantial efforts were made to systematically assess the skill of Earth system models. One goal was to check how realistically representative marine biogeochemical tracer distributions could be reproduced by models. In routine assessments model historical hindcasts were compared with available modern biogeochemical observations. However, these assessments considered neither how close modeled biogeochemical reservoirs were to equilibrium nor the sensitivity of model performance to initial conditions or to the spin-up protocols. Here, we explore how the large diversity in spin-up protocols used for marine biogeochemistry in CMIP5 Earth system models (ESMs) contributes to model-to-model differences in the simulated fields. We take advantage of a 500-year spin-up simulation of IPSL-CM5A-LR to quantify the influence of the spin-up protocol on model ability to reproduce relevant data fields. Amplification of biases in selected biogeochemical fields (O2, NO3, Alk-DIC) is assessed as a function of spin-up duration. We demonstrate that a relationship between spin-up duration and assessment metrics emerges from our model results and holds when confronted with a larger ensemble of CMIP5 models. This shows that drift has implications for performance assessment in addition to possibly aliasing estimates of climate change impact. Our study suggests that differences in spin-up protocols could explain a substantial part of model disparities, constituting a source of model-to-model uncertainty. This requires more attention in future model intercomparison exercises in order to provide quantitatively more correct ESM results on marine biogeochemistry and carbon cycle feedbacks.We sincerely thank I. Kriest, F. Joos, the anonymous reviewer and A. Yool for their useful comments on this paper. This work was supported by H2020 project CRESCENDO “Coordinated Research in Earth Systems and Climate: Experiments, kNowledge, Dissemination and Outreach”, which received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 641816 and by the EU FP7 project CARBOCHANGE “Changes in carbon uptake and emissions by oceans in a changing climate” which received funding from the European community’s Seventh Framework Programme under grant agreement no. 264879. Supercomputing time was provided by GENCI (Grand Equipement National de Calcul Intensif) at CCRT (Centre de Calcul Recherche et Technologie), allocation 016178. Finally, we are grateful to the ESGF project which makes data available for all the community. Roland Séférian is grateful to Aurélien Ribes for his kind advices on statistics. Jerry Tjiputra acknowledges ORGANIC project (239965/F20) funded by the Research Council of Norway. Christoph Heinze and Jerry Tjiputra are grateful for support through project EVA – Earth system modelling of climate variations in the Anthropocene (229771/E10) funded by the Research Council of Norway, as well as CPU-time and mass storage provided through NOTUR project NN2345K as well as NorStore project NS2345K. Keith Lindsay and Scott C. Doney acknowledge support from the National Science Foundation

DMS atmospheric concentrations and sulphate aerosol indirect radiative forcing: a sensitivity study to the DMS source representation and oxidation

The global sulphur cycle has been simulated using a general circulation model with a focus on the source and oxidation of atmospheric dimethylsulphide (DMS). The sensitivity of atmospheric DMS to the oceanic DMS climatology, the parameterisation of the sea-air transfer and to the oxidant fields have been studied. The importance of additional oxidation pathways (by O₃ in the gas- and aqueous-phases and by BrO in the gas phase) not incorporated in global models has also been evaluated. While three different climatologies of the oceanic DMS concentration produce rather similar global DMS fluxes to the atmosphere at 24-27 Tg S yr ^-1, there are large differences in the spatial and seasonal distribution. The relative contributions of OH and NO₃ radicals to DMS oxidation depends critically on which oxidant fields are prescribed in the model. Oxidation by O₃ appears to be significant at high latitudes in both hemispheres. Oxidation by BrO could be significant even for BrO concentrations at sub-pptv levels in the marine boundary layer. The impact of such refinements on the DMS chemistry onto the indirect radiative forcing by anthropogenic sulphate aerosols is also discussed

Joint 3D modelling of the polarized Galactic synchrotron and thermal dust foreground diffuse emission

We present for the first time a coherent model of the polarized Galactic synchrotron and thermal dust emissions which are the main diffuse foreground for the measurement of the polarized power spectra of the CMB fluctuations with the Planck satellite mission. We produce 3D models of the Galactic magnetic field including regular and turbulent components, and of the distribution of matter in the Galaxy, relativistic electrons and dust grains. By integrating along the line of sight we construct maps of the polarized Galactic synchrotron and thermal dust emission for each of these models and compare them to currently available data. We consider the 408 MHz all-sky continuum survey, the 23 GHz band of the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe and the 353 GHz Archeops data.}{The best-fit parameters obtained are consistent with previous estimates in the literature based only on synchrotron emission and pulsar rotation measurements. They allows us to reproduce the large scale structures observed on the data. Poorly understood local Galactic structures and turbulence make difficult an accurate reconstruction of the observations in the Galactic plane. Finally, using the best-fit model we are able to estimate the expected polarized foreground contamination at the Planck frequency bands. For the CMB bands, 70, 100, 143 and 217 GHz, at high Galactic latitudes although the CMB signal dominates in general, a significant foreground contribution is expected at large angular scales. In particular, this contribution will dominate the CMB signal for the B modes expected from realistic models of a background of primordial gravitational waves