Fit for purpose and fit for the future? An evaluation of the UK’s new flood reinsurance pool

Flood Re is widely hailed as an innovative approach to disaster risk insurance. This paper offers a mixed-methods evaluation of the new pool, asking whether it is “fit for purpose” and “fit for the future”. The investigation considers the roles of the public and private sectors, risk modelling and risk communication, technical underwriting, distributional aspects and the behavioural implications of Flood Re, particularly with regards to risk reduction and prevention. The paper concludes that the new pool is a transitional reinsurance arrangement that supports the private insurance market and secures affordability of flood insurance in the UK through premium subsidies. However, this approach is likely to come under pressure in the face of rising flood risk as it fails to incentivize flood risk management and risk reduction efforts

The evolution of UK flood insurance: incremental change over six decades

In this paper, the authors' theorizing shifts away from the catalytic role of the flood itself – or other crises – towards a deeper understanding of the relationship between change and stability, taking the example of UK flood insurance and the agreements – and the implicit policy approaches – between the actors involved: private insurers and the government. The study relies upon in-depth analysis of policy agreements governing flood insurance since the 1960s, and semi-structured interviews with six current or former flood insurance professionals. The important agents of change have been, firstly, threats to existing household insurers from new entrants unencumbered by agreements to insure all comers. Secondly, technological changes have made exposure more explicit and pricing risk both easier and less expensive. The slow pace of change and the relatively stable role of the different actors and coalitions is now clearer. Many windows of opportunity created by major flooding or financial crises have not significantly affected the pace or direction of policy change. The overriding importance of the London location for – and the profitability of – the insurance industry, both to government and to the insurers, explains the extraordinary policy stability described here. This history suggests that the UK may not be a good model for imitation elsewhere

Flood risk insurance, mitigation and commercial property valuation

© 2019, Emerald Publishing Limited. Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to understand how built environment professionals approach the valuation of flood risk in commercial property markets and whether insurance promotes mitigation in different insurance and risk management regimes, draw common conclusions and highlight opportunities to transfer learning. Design/methodology/approach: An illustrative case study approach involving literature search and 72 interviews with built environment professionals, across five countries in four continents. Findings: Common difficulties arise in availability, reliability and interpretation of risk information, and in evaluating the impact of mitigation. These factors, coupled with the heterogeneous nature of commercial property, lack of transactional data and remote investors, make valuation of risk particularly challenging in the sector. Insurance incentives for risk mitigation are somewhat effective where employed and could be further developed, however, the influence of insurance is hampered by lack of insurance penetration and underinsurance. Research limitations/implications: Further investigation of the means to improve uptake of insurance and to develop insurance incentives for mitigation is recommended. Practical implications: Flood risk is inconsistently reflected in commercial property values leading to lack of mitigation and vulnerability of investments to future flooding. Improvements are needed in: access to adequate risk information; professional skills in valuing risk; guidance on valuation of flood risk; and regulation to ensure adequate consideration of risk and mitigation options. Originality/value: The research addresses a global issue that threatens local, and regional economies through loss of utility, business profitability and commercial property value. It is unique in consulting professionals across international markets

Are wildcard events on infrastructure systems opportunities for transformational change?

Infrastructure systems face a number of pressing challenges relating to demographics, environment, finance and governance pressures. Furthermore, infrastructure mediates the way in which everyday lives are conducted; their form and function creating a persistence of unsustainable practice and behaviour that cannot be changed even if change is desired. There is a need to find means by which this obduracy can be broken so that new, more sustainable futures can be planned. This paper develops a methodology, taking concepts from both engineering and social science. Wild cards, or physical disruptions, are used to ‘destructively test’ complex infrastructure systems and the multi-level perspective is used as a framework for analysing the resulting data. This methodology was used to examine a number of case studies, and with focus groups consisting of a range of different infrastructure providers and managers, to gain a better understanding of systems’ sociotechnical characteristics and behaviours. A number of impactful ‘intervention points’ emerged that offered the opportunity to promote radical changes towards configurations of infrastructure systems that provide for ‘less’ physical infrastructure. This paper also examines the utility of wild cards as enablers of transition to these ‘less’ configurations and demonstrates how a ‘wild card scenario’ can be used to co-design infrastructure adaptation from with both infrastructure providers and users

An exploration of factors affecting the long term psychological impact and deterioration of mental health in flooded households

The long term psychological effect of the distress and trauma caused by the memory of damage and losses associated with flooding of communities remains an under researched impact of flooding. This is particularly important for communities that are likely to be repeatedly flooded where levels of mental health disorder will damage long term resilience to future flooding.There are a variety of factors that affect the prevalence of mental health disorders in the aftermath of flooding including pre-existing mental health, socio-economic factors and flood severity. However previous research has tended to focus on the short term impacts immediately following the flood event and much less focus has been given to the longer terms effects of flooding. Understanding of factors affecting the longer term mental health outcomes for flooded households is critical in order to support communities in improving social resilience. Hence, the aim of this study was to explore the characteristics associated with psychological distress and mental health deterioration over the longer term.The research examined responses from a postal survey of households flooded during the 2007 flood event across England. Descriptive statistics, correlation analysis and binomial logistic regression were applied to data representing household characteristics, flood event characteristics and post-flood stressors and coping strategies. These factors were related to reported measures of stress, anxiety, depression and mental health deterioration. The results showed that household income, depth of flooding; having to move out during reinstatement and mitigating actions are related to the prevalence of psycho-social symptoms in previously flooded households. In particular relocation and household income were the most predictive factors. The practical implication of these findings for recovery after flooding are: to consider the preferences of households in terms of the need to move out during restorative building works and the financial resource constraints that may lead to severe mental hardship. In addition the findings suggest that support with installing mitigation measures may lead to improved mental health outcomes for communities at risk

Reserve price effects in auctions: estimates from multiple regression-discontinuity designs

We present evidence from 260,000 online auctions of second-hand cars to identify the impact of public reserve prices on auction outcomes. We exploit multiple discontinuities in the relationship between reserve prices and vehicle characteristics to present causal regression-discontinuity estimates of reserve price impacts. We find an increase in reserve price decreases the number of bidders, increases the likelihood the object remains unsold, and increases expected revenue conditional on sale. We then combine these estimates to calibrate the reserve price effect on the auctioneer's ex ante expected revenue. This reveals the auctioneer's reserve price policy to be locally optimal

Do compensation plans with performance targets provide better incentives?

YesGuided by academic literature, industry practice and policy recommendations, we analyze a wide range of option and restricted stock plans with exercise and vesting conditions that may be contingent on stock price performance. To assess the effectiveness of these plans at attracting and providing incentives to executives, we create compensation plans with fixed firm cost and executive valuation and calculate their expected total lifetime incentives. We show that performance vesting targets provide the least cost effective incentives, performance exercise targets provide the largest risk incentives, option plans are generally superior to restricted stock plans, and calendar vesting is only efficient up to a maximum of three years. Performance exercise targets can increase the expected total lifetime incentives provided by compensation plans, but in general, standard options with short vesting periods provide the most cost effective pay-for-performance incentives

The strategic role of reinsurance in the United Kingdom’s (UK) non-life insurance market

We demonstrate that by increasing the level of reinsurance, primary insurers increase their product-market share at the expense of rivals with lower reinsurance coverage in five main lines of insurance in the United Kingdom’s (UK) non-life insurance market. We use panel data drawn from statutory filings made by non-life insurers to the then UK regulator (FSA) over 1985 to 2010 period. We find that the influence of reinsurance and other financial variables on insurers’ growth in product-market share varies across lines of insurance business. Since reinsurance impacts on product-market outcomes in competitive non-life insurance industry, we conclude that reinsurance performs an important strategic function in insurance markets

Just about everybody doing the business? Explaining 'cash-for-crash insurance fraud in the United Kingdom

There is much international research on the different types of fraud committed by individuals and/or organised crime. There is, however, limited research on insurance fraud and a particular species of such fraud which has become known as ‘cash-for-crash’ fraud in the United Kingdom. In addition there are very few published studies of fraudsters which actually draw upon interviews with those that have committed the act(s). This paper bridges both of these gaps providing a focus upon ‘cash-for-crash’ fraudsters which is based upon empirical research drawn from six interviews with such offenders and a database of over 400 offenders built upon successful prosecutions of such cases in the United Kingdom. This paper offers a profile of such offenders and presents insights into why and how some people might become involved in ‘cash-for-crash’ type frauds