Simulating the Spatial Distribution of Population and Emissions to 2100

Abstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/).Urbanization and economic development have important implications for many environmental processes including global climate change. Although there is evidence that urbanization depends endogenously on economic variables, long-term forecasts of the spatial distribution of population are often made exogenously and independent of economic conditions. A beta distribution for individual countries/regions is estimated to describe the geographical distribution of population using a 1° x 1° latitude-longitude global population data set. Cross-sectional country/regional data are then used to estimate an empirical relationship between parameters of the beta distribution and macroeconomic variables as they vary among countries/regions. This conditional beta distribution allows the simulation of a changing distribution of population, including the growth of urban areas, driven by economic forecasts until the year 2100

Modeling Climate Feedbacks to Energy Demand: The Case of China

Abstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/).This paper is an empirical investigation of the effects of climate on the use of electricity by consumers and producers in urban and rural areas within China. It takes advantage of an unusual combination of temporal and regional data sets in order to estimate temperature, as well as price and income elasticities of electricity demand. The estimated positive temperature/electric power feedback implies a continually increasing use of energy to produce electric power which, in China, is primarily based on coal. In the absence of countervailing measures, this will contribute to increased emissions, increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, and increases in greenhouse warming.This study received funding from the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, which is supported by a consortium of government, industry and foundation sponsors

A Wireless Sensor Network Deployment for Rural and Forest Fire Detection and Verification

Forest and rural fires are one of the main causes of environmental degradation in Mediterranean countries. Existing fire detection systems only focus on detection, but not on the verification of the fire. However, almost all of them are just simulations, and very few implementations can be found. Besides, the systems in the literature lack scalability. In this paper we show all the steps followed to perform the design, research and development of a wireless multisensor network which mixes sensors with IP cameras in a wireless network in order to detect and verify fire in rural and forest areas of Spain. We have studied how many cameras, sensors and access points are needed to cover a rural or forest area, and the scalability of the system. We have developed a multisensor and when it detects a fire, it sends a sensor alarm through the wireless network to a central server. The central server selects the closest wireless cameras to the multisensor, based on a software application, which are rotated to the sensor that raised the alarm, and sends them a message in order to receive real-time images from the zone. The camera lets the fire fighters corroborate the existence of a fire and avoid false alarms. In this paper, we show the test performance given by a test bench formed by four wireless IP cameras in several situations and the energy consumed when they are transmitting. Moreover, we study the energy consumed by each device when the system is set up. The wireless sensor network could be connected to Internet through a gateway and the images of the cameras could be seen from any part of the world

The MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) Model: Version 4

Abstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/).The Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model is the part of the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) that represents the human systems. EPPA is a recursive-dynamic multi-regional general equilibrium model of the world economy, which is built on the GTAP dataset and additional data for the greenhouse gas and urban gas emissions. It is designed to develop projections of economic growth and anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse related gases and aerosols. The main purpose of this report is to provide documentation of a new version of EPPA, EPPA version 4. In comparison with EPPA3, it includes greater regional and sectoral detail, a wider range of advanced energy supply technologies, improved capability to represent a variety of different and more realistic climate policies, and enhanced treatment of physical stocks and flows of energy, emissions, and land use to facilitate linkage with the earth system components of the IGSM. Reconsideration of important parameters and assumptions led to some revisions in reference projections of GDP and greenhouse gas emissions. In EPPA4 the global economy grows by 12.5 times from 2000 to 2100 (2.5% per year) compared with an increase of 10.7 times (2.4% per year) in EPPA3. This is one of the important revisions that led to an increase in CO2 emissions to 25.7 GtC in 2100, up from 23 GtC in 2100 projected by EPPA3. There is considerable uncertainty in such projections because of uncertainty in various driving forces. To illustrate this uncertainty we consider scenarios where the global GDP grows 0.5% faster (slower) than the reference rate, and these scenarios result in CO2 emissions in 2100 of 34 (17) GtC. A sample greenhouse gas policy scenario that puts the world economy on a path toward stabilization of atmospheric CO2 at 550 ppmv is also simulated to illustrate the response of EPPA4 to a policy constraint.This research was supported by the U.S Department of Energy, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. National Science Foundation, U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration; and the Industry and Foundation Sponsors of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change: Alstom Power (France), American Electric Power (USA), BP p.l.c. (UK/USA), Chevron Corporation (USA), CONCAWE (Belgium), DaimlerChrysler AG (Germany), Duke Energy (USA), J-Power (Japan), Electric Power Research Institute (USA), Electricité de France, ExxonMobil Corporation (USA), Ford Motor Company (USA), General Motors (USA), Murphy Oil Corporation (USA), Oglethorpe Power Corporation (USA), RWE Power (Germany), Shell Petroleum (Netherlands/UK), Southern Company (USA), Statoil ASA (Norway), Tennessee Valley Authority (USA), Tokyo Electric Power Company (Japan), Total (France), G. Unger Vetlesen Foundation (USA)

Global Health and Economic Impacts of Future Ozone Pollution

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/).We assess the human health and economic impacts of projected 2000-2050 changes in ozone pollution using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis-Health Effects (EPPA-HE) model, in combination with results from the GEOS-Chem global tropospheric chemistry model that simulated climate and chemistry effects of IPCC SRES emissions. We use EPPA to assess the human health damages (including acute mortality and morbidity outcomes) caused by ozone pollution and quantify their economic impacts in sixteen world regions. We compare the costs of ozone pollution under scenarios with 2000 and 2050 ozone precursor and greenhouse gas emissions (SRES A1B scenario). We estimate that health costs due to global ozone pollution above pre-industrial levels by 2050 will be $580 billion (year 2000$) and that acute mortalities will exceed 2 million. We find that previous methodologies underestimate costs of air pollution by more than a third because they do not take into account the long-term, compounding effects of health costs. The economic effects of emissions changes far exceed the influence of climate alone.United States Department of Energy, Office of Science (BER) grants DE-FG02-94ER61937 and DE-FG02-93ER61677, the United States Environmental Protection Agency grant EPA-XA-83344601-0, and the industrial and foundation sponsors of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change

Nurses' perceptions of using an evidence-based care bundle for initial emergency nursing management of patients with severe traumatic brain injury: A qualitative study.

Evidence to guide initial emergency nursing care of patients with severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) in Thailand is currently not available in a useable form. A care bundle was used to summarise an evidence-based approach to the initial emergency nursing management of patients with severe TBI and was implemented in one Thai emergency department. The aim of this study was to describe Thai emergency nurses' perceptions of care bundle use. A descriptive qualitative study was used to describe emergency nurses' perceptions of care bundle use during the implementation phase (Phase-One) and then post-implementation (Phase-Two). Ten emergency nurses participated in Phase-One, while 12 nurses participated in Phase-Two. In Phase-One, there were five important factors identified in relation to use of the care bundle including quality of care, competing priorities, inadequate equipment, agitated patients, and teamwork. In Phase Two, participants perceived that using the care bundle helped them to improve quality of care, increased nurses' knowledge, skills, and confidence. Care bundles are one strategy to increase integration of research evidence into clinical practice and facilitate healthcare providers to deliver optimal patient care in busy environments with limited resources

Air conditioning and electricity expenditure: The role of climate in temperate countries

This paper investigates how households adopt and use air conditioning to adapt to climate change and increasingly high temperatures, which pose a threat to the health of vulnerable populations. The analysis examines conditions in eight temperate, industrialized countries (Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland). The identification strategy exploits cross-country and cross-household variations by matching geocoded households with climate data. Our findings suggest that households respond to excess heat by purchasing and using air conditioners, leading to increased electricity consumption. Households on average spend 35%–42% more on electricity when they adopt air conditioning. Through an illustrative analysis, we show that climate change and the growing demand for air conditioning are likely to exacerbate energy poverty. The number of energy poor who spend a high share of income on electricity increases, and households in the lowest income quantile are the most negatively affected

Provider Experiences with Telehealth During the COVID-19 Pandemic

This paper presents responses to a survey developed to gauge providers’ perceptions of telehealth during the COVID-19 pandemic. The survey was developed by faculty at the University of California, Irvine’s Health Policy and Research Institute following semi-structured discussions with focus group participants. A final draft survey was distributed to mostly primary care clinicians. Responses indicated overall favorable perceptions of telehealth. Notable perceived challenges including care by telehealth of medically complex patients, patients with language barriers, and patients with poor access or understanding of technology. Continued evaluation and revision of the survey measure will be needed to improve its generalizability and appropriateness for distribution to a larger participant group