Impact of Climate Change on the Heating Demand of Buildings. A District Level Approach

There is no doubt that during recent years, the developing countries are in urgent demand of energy, which means the energy generation and the carbon emissions increase accumulatively. The 40 % of the global energy consumption per year comes from the building stock. Considering the predictions regarding future climate due to climate change, a good understanding on the energy use due to future climate is required. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of future weather in the heating demand and carbon emissions for a group of buildings at district level, focusing on two areas of London in the United Kingdom. The methodological approach involved the use of geospatial data for the case study areas, processed with Python programming language through Anaconda and Jupyter notebook, generation of an archetype dataset with energy performance data from TABULA typology and the use of Python console in QGIS to calculate the heating demand in the reference weather data, 2050 and 2100 in accordance with RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. A validated model was used for the district level heating demand calculation. On the one hand, the results suggest that a mitigation of carbon emissions under the RCP4.5 scenario will generate a small decrease on the heating demand at district level, so slightly similar levels of heating generation must continue to be provided using sustainable alternatives. On the other hand, following the RCP 8.5 scenario of carbon emission carrying on business as usual will create a significant reduction of heating demand due to the rise on temperature but with the consequent overheating in summer, which will shift the energy generation problem. The results suggest that adaptation of the energy generation must start shifting to cope with higher temperatures and a different requirement of delivered energy from heating to cooling due to the effect of climate change

Assessing Urban Building Energy Demand in Future Climate Scenarios: A Case Study in Nottingham,UK

The most recent report on climate change from the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), in 2023, states that urgent action is needed to tackle global warming. The IPCC points out that by 2040, there is a greater than 50% risk that the temperature worldwide will approach or exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit). On top of that, under high-emissions scenarios, the global temperature could increase to that borderline even earlier, before 2037. Since building stock accounts for 40% of total global energy usage and 33% of greenhouse gas emissions each year, their continuous high demand for energy leads to the rapid growth of CO2 emissions. Accounting for that, the energy performance of buildings in urban scale under the future climate scenarios is a significant factor in immediately assisting with climate change mitigation. The purpose of this project was to estimate the influence of the climate change on the energy demand of two neighbourhoods in Nottingham, in United Kingdom, by comparing their current energy performance to the future. The methodology consists of the use of geospatial data for the building geometric parameters, in combination with energy-related data from the EPC (Energy Performance Certificate) dataset. The datasets were processed with Python programming language and the QGIS software, and the final dataset was imported to an energy model that was constructed with the use of Rhino and Grasshopper, with EnergyPlus simulations on the background. The model was run under 9 different climate scenarios, namely under the present, under 2050s and 2080s for 4 different future scenarios each year. The results have shown that the absence of building stock renovation will lead to an accountable decrease in the heating demand of buildings, while the risk of overheating will be critically escalating. </em

Evaluating the Influence of Program Type Building Parameters on UBEM: A Case Study for the Residential Stock in Nottingham, UK

In the midst of rising concern about the implications of climate change, the European Union and the United Kingdom appears to be on the verge of establishing policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The urban building energy models could inform energy analyzers and decision makers for the future results that specific comprehensive energy refurbishment strategies and energy supply infrastructure changes might have. Nonetheless, the data challenges that emerge are various. The lack of data availability and reliability, the data computing issue and data privacy are, only, some of the challenges of building energy modelling, which are intensified in urban scale. Therefore, the investigation of the influence of building parameters on the energy demand results is deemed necessary, in order both to understand the minimum data requirements for urban energy modelling, and the impact of them before the design phase for the new constructions. Therefore, this Paper’s intention is to inform stakeholders from energy analysts to data capture companies, about the influential building parameters, as regards to the Program Type, such as the infiltration, the domestic hot water and the ventilation. An UBEM physics-based approach, for the estimation of the annual energy demand, is implemented with the use of Grasshopper software, and the visualization of the results is done with the QGIS software. The case study is in Nottingham city, in UK, and the energy demand for the whole year of the dwelling stock is estimated. Then, a sensitivity analysis for the influence of the Program Type building parameters is presented. The results have shown that the most impactful parameter among the three under-tested is the infiltration (airtightness) of a dwellin

Caffeine taste signaling in drosophila larvae

The Drosophila larva has a simple peripheral nervous system with a comparably small number of sensory neurons located externally at the head or internally along the pharynx to assess its chemical environment. It is assumed that larval taste coding occurs mainly via external organs (the dorsal, terminal, and ventral organ). However, the contribution of the internal pharyngeal sensory organs has not been explored. Here we find that larvae require a single pharyngeal gustatory receptor neuron pair called D1, which is located in the dorsal pharyngeal sensilla, in order to avoid caffeine and to associate an odor with caffeine punishment. In contrast, caffeine-driven reduction in feeding in non-choice situations does not require D1. Hence, this work provides data on taste coding via different receptor neurons, depending on the behavioral context. Furthermore, we show that the larval pharyngeal system is involved in bitter tasting. Using ectopic expressions, we show that the caffeine receptor in neuron D1 requires the function of at least four receptor genes: the putative co-receptors Gr33a, Gr66a, the putative caffeine-specific receptor Gr93a, and yet unknown additional molecular component(s). This suggests that larval taste perception is more complex than previously assumed already at the sensory level. Taste information from different sensory organs located outside at the head or inside along the pharynx of the larva is assembled to trigger taste guided behaviors

Randomized Crossover Trial of the Impact of Morning or Evening Dosing of Antihypertensive Agents on 24-Hour Ambulatory Blood Pressure

Some data suggest that nocturnal dosing of antihypertensive agents may reduce cardiovascular outcomes more than daytime dosing. This trial was designed to evaluate whether ambulatory blood pressure monitoring levels differ by timing of drug dosing. Patients aged 18 to 80 years with reasonably controlled hypertension (≤150/≤90 mm Hg) on stable therapy of ≥1 antihypertensive agent were recruited from 2 centers in London and Thessaloniki. Patients were randomized to receive usual therapy either in the morning (6 am–11 am) or evening (6 pm–11 pm) for 12 weeks when participants crossed over to the alternative timing for a further 12 weeks. Clinic blood pressures and a 24-hour recording were taken at baseline, 12, and 24 weeks and routine blood tests were taken at baseline. The study had 80% power to detect 3 mm Hg difference in mean 24-hour systolic blood pressure (α=0.05) by time of dosing. A 2-level hierarchical regression model adjusted for center, period, and sequence was used. Of 103 recruited patients (mean age, 62; 44% female), 95 patients (92%) completed all three 24-hour recordings. Mean 24-hour systolic and diastolic blood pressures did not differ between daytime and evening dosing. Similarly, morning and evening dosing had no differential impact on mean daytime (7 am–10 pm) and nighttime (10 pm–7 am) blood pressure levels nor on clinic levels. Stratification by age (≤65/≥65 years) or sex did not affect results. In summary, among hypertensive patients with reasonably well-controlled blood pressure, the timing of antihypertensive drug administration (morning or evening) did not affect mean 24-hour or clinic blood pressure levels

Regression toward the mean – a detection method for unknown population mean based on Mee and Chua's algorithm

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Regression to the mean (RTM) occurs in situations of repeated measurements when extreme values are followed by measurements in the same subjects that are closer to the mean of the basic population. In uncontrolled studies such changes are likely to be interpreted as a real treatment effect.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Several statistical approaches have been developed to analyse such situations, including the algorithm of Mee and Chua which assumes a known population mean <it>μ</it>. We extend this approach to a situation where <it>μ </it>is unknown and suggest to vary it systematically over a range of reasonable values. Using differential calculus we provide formulas to estimate the range of <it>μ </it>where treatment effects are likely to occur when RTM is present.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We successfully applied our method to three real world examples denoting situations when (a) no treatment effect can be confirmed regardless which <it>μ </it>is true, (b) when a treatment effect must be assumed independent from the true <it>μ </it>and (c) in the appraisal of results of uncontrolled studies.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our method can be used to separate the wheat from the chaff in situations, when one has to interpret the results of uncontrolled studies. In meta-analysis, health-technology reports or systematic reviews this approach may be helpful to clarify the evidence given from uncontrolled observational studies.</p

‘Sub-Prime’ Water, Low-Security Entitlements and Policy Challenges in Over-Allocated River Basins: the Case of the Murray–Darling Basin

Environmental policy is often implemented using market instruments. In some cases, including carbon taxing, the links between financial products and the environmental objectives, are transparent. In other cases, including water markets, the links are less transparent. In Australia’s Murray–Darling Basin (MDB), financial water products are known as ‘entitlements’, and are similar to traditional financial products, such as shares. The Australian water market includes ‘Low Security’ entitlements, which are similar to ‘sub-prime’ mortgage bonds because they are unlikely to yield an amount equal to their financial worth. Nearly half the water purchased under the Murray–Darling Basin Plan for environmental purposes is ‘Low Security’. We suggest that the current portfolio of water held by the Australian Government for environmental purposes reflects the mortgage market in the lead-up to the global financial crisis. Banks assumed that the future value of the mortgage market would reflect past trends. Similarly, it is assumed that the future value of water products will reflect past trends, without considering climate change. Historic records of allocations to ‘Low Security’ entitlements in the MDB suggest that, in the context of climate change, the Basin Plan water portfolio may fall short of the target annual average yield of 2075 GL by 511 GL. We recommend adopting finance sector methods including ‘hedging’ ‘Low Security’ entitlements by purchasing an additional 322–2755 GL of ‘Low Security’, or 160–511 GL of ‘High Security’ entitlements. Securing reliable environmental water is a global problem. Finance economics present opportunities for increasing the reliability of environmental flows

Prevalence of HPV infection among Greek women attending a gynecological outpatient clinic

Background: Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is a causative factor for cervical cancer. Early detection of high risk HPV types might help to identify women at high risk of cervical cancer. The aim of the present study was to examine the HPV prevalence and distribution in cervical smears in a sample of Greek women attending a gynecological outpatient clinic and to explore the determinants of the infection.Methods: A total of 225 women were studied. All women underwent a regular gynecological control. 35 HPV types were studied; 6, 11, 16, 18, 26, 31, 33, 35, 39, 40, 42, 43, 44, 45, 51, 52, 53, 54, 56, 58, 59, 61, 62, 66, 68, 70, 71, 72, 73, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85 and 89. Also, basic demographic information, sociodemographic characteristics and sexual behavior were recorded.Results: HPV was detected in 22.7% of the study population. The percentage of the newly diagnosed women with HPV infection was 17.3%. HPV-16 was the most common type detected (5.3%) followed by HPV-53 (4.9%). 66.2% of the study participants had a Pap test during the last year without any abnormalities. HPV infection was related positively with alcohol consumption (OR: 2.19, 95% CI: 1.04-4.63, P = 0.04) and number of sexual partners (OR: 2.16, 95% CI: 1.44-3.25, P < 0.001), and negatively with age (OR: 0.93, 95% CI: 0.87-0.99, P = 0.03), and monthly income (OR: 0.63, 95% CI: 0.44-0.89, P = 0.01).Conclusion: The prevalence of HPV in women attending an outpatient clinic is high. Number of sexual partners and alcohol consumption were the most significant risk factors for HPV infection, followed by young age and lower income

Clostridium difficile Infections amongst Patients with Haematological Malignancies: A Data Linkage Study

OBJECTIVES: Identify risk factors for Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) and assess CDI outcomes among Australian patients with a haematological malignancy. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study involving all patients admitted to hospitals in Western Australia with a haematological malignancy from July 2011 to June 2012. Hospital admission data were linked with all hospital investigated CDI case data. Potential risk factors were assessed by logistic regression. The risk of death within 60 and 90 days of CDI was assessed by Cox Proportional Hazards regression. RESULTS: There were 2085 patients of whom 65 had at least one CDI. Twenty percent of CDI cases were either community-acquired, indeterminate source or had only single-day admissions in the 28 days prior to CDI. Using logistic regression, having acute lymphocytic leukaemia, neutropenia and having had bacterial pneumonia or another bacterial infection were associated with CDI. CDI was associated with an increased risk of death within 60 and 90 days post CDI, but only two deaths had CDI recorded as an antecedent factor. Ribotyping information was available for 33 of the 65 CDIs. There were 19 different ribotypes identified. CONCLUSIONS: Neutropenia was strongly associated with CDI. While having CDI is a risk factor for death, in many cases it may not be a direct contributor to death but may reflect patients having higher morbidity. A wide variety of C. difficile ribotypes were found and community-acquired infection may be under-estimated in these patients

Expansion of Nature Conservation Areas: Problems with Natura 2000 Implementation in Poland?

In spite of widespread support from most member countries’ societies for European Union policy, including support for the sustainable development idea, in many EU countries the levels of acceptance of new environmental protection programmes have been and, in particular in new member states, still are considerably low. The experience of the countries which were the first to implement union directives show that they cannot be effectively applied without widespread public participation. The goal of this study was, using the example of Poland, to assess public acceptance of the expansion of nature conservation in the context of sustainable development principles and to discover whether existing nature governance should be modified when establishing new protected areas. The increase in protected areas in Poland has become a hotbed of numerous conflicts. In spite of the generally favourable attitudes to nature which Polish people generally have, Natura 2000 is perceived as an unnecessary additional conservation tool. Both local authorities and communities residing in the Natura areas think that the programme is a hindrance, rather than a help in the economic development of municipalities or regions, as was initially supposed. This lack of acceptance results from many factors, mainly social, historic and economic. The implications of these findings for current approach to the nature governance in Poland are discussed