Global heliospheric parameters and cosmic ray modulation: an empirical relation for the last decades. Solar Phys

Abstract. We study empirical relations between the modulation of galactic cosmic rays quantified in terms of the modulation potential and the following global heliospheric parameters: the open solar magnetic flux, the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet, and the polarity of the heliospheric magnetic field. We show that a combination of these parameters explains the majority of the modulation potential variations during the neutron monitor era 1951 -2005. Two empirical models are discussed: a quasi-linear model and a model assuming a power-law relation between the modulation potential and the magnetic flux. Both models describe the data fairly well. These empirical models provide a simple tool for evaluating various cosmic-ray related effects on different time scales. The models can be extended backwards in time or used for predictions, if the corresponding global heliospheric variables can be independently estimated

Cyclic variations of the heliospheric tilt angle and cosmic ray modulation,

Abstract Using data on cosmic ray modulation parameter since 1951, we have estimated the evolution of the heliospheric current sheet tilt angle for the period 1951-1975, i.e., 25 years before regular observations of the tilt angle. This estimate is based on our recent empirical model relating cosmic ray intensity with global heliospheric parameters. We propose a simple model to describe the cyclic evolution of the tilt angle with the solar cycle. This model agrees with available observational data. Using this model, we have estimated the cosmic ray intensity since 1710. This estimate is consistent with the results based on cosmogenic isotopes ( 14 C and 10 Be)

A new model of cosmogenic production of radiocarbon 14C in the atmosphere

We present the results of full new calculation of radiocarbon 14C production in the Earth atmosphere, using a numerical Monte-Carlo model. We provide, for the first time, a tabulated 14C yield function for the energy of primary cosmic ray particles ranging from 0.1 to 1000 GeV/nucleon. We have calculated the global production rate of 14C, which is 1.64 and 1.88 atoms/cm2/s for the modern time and for the pre-industrial epoch, respectively. This is close to the values obtained from the carbon cycle reservoir inventory. We argue that earlier models overestimated the global 14C production rate because of outdated spectra of cosmic ray heavier nuclei. The mean contribution of solar energetic particles to the global 14C is calculated as about 0.25% for the modern epoch. Our model provides a new tool to calculate the 14C production in the Earth's atmosphere, which can be applied, e.g., to reconstructions of solar activity in the past.Comment: Published in EPSL, 337, 114, 201

Cyclic loss of open solar flux since 1868: the link to heliospheric current sheet tilt and implications for the Maunder Minimum

Open solar flux (OSF) variations can be described by the imbalance between source and loss terms. We use spacecraft and geomagnetic observations of OSF from 1868 to present and assume the OSF source, S, varies with the observed sunspot number, R. Computing the required fractional OSF loss, χ, reveals a clear solar cycle variation, in approximate phase with R. While peak R varies significantly from cycle to cycle, χ is surprisingly constant in both amplitude and waveform. Comparisons of χ with measures of heliospheric current sheet (HCS) orientation reveal a strong correlation. The cyclic nature of χ is exploited to reconstruct OSF back to the start of sunspot records in 1610. This agrees well with the available spacecraft, geomagnetic, and cosmogenic isotope observations. Assuming S is proportional to R yields near-zero OSF throughout the Maunder Minimum. However, χ becomes negative during periods of low R, particularly the most recent solar minimum, meaning OSF production is underestimated. This is related to continued coronal mass ejection (CME) activity, and therefore OSF production, throughout solar minimum, despite R falling to zero. Correcting S for this produces a better match to the recent solar minimum OSF observations. It also results in a cycling, nonzero OSF during the Maunder Minimum, in agreement with cosmogenic isotope observations. These results suggest that during the Maunder Minimum, HCS tilt cycled as over recent solar cycles, and the CME rate was roughly constant at the levels measured during the most recent two solar minima

Near-Earth heliospheric magnetic field intensity since 1750. Part 2: cosmogenic radionuclide reconstructions

This is Part 2 of a study of the near-Earth heliospheric magnetic field strength, B, since 1750. Part 1 produced composite estimates of B from geomagnetic and sunspot data over the period 1750–2013. Sunspot-based reconstructions can be extended back to 1610, but the paleocosmic ray (PCR) record is the only data set capable of providing a record of solar activity on millennial timescales. The process for converting 10Be concentrations measured in ice cores to B is more complex than with geomagnetic and sunspot data, and the uncertainties in B derived from cosmogenic nuclides (~20% for any individual year) are much larger. Within this level of uncertainty, we find reasonable overall agreement between PCR-based B and the geomagnetic- and sunspot number-based series. This agreement was enhanced by excising low values in PCR-based B attributed to high-energy solar proton events. Other discordant intervals, with as yet unspecified causes remain included in our analysis. Comparison of 3 year averages centered on sunspot minimum yields reasonable agreement between the three estimates, providing a means to investigate the long-term changes in the heliospheric magnetic field into the past even without a means to remove solar proton events from the records

The 22-Year Hale Cycle in cosmic ray flux: evidence for direct heliospheric modulation

The ability to predict times of greater galactic cosmic ray (GCR) fluxes is important for reducing the hazards caused by these particles to satellite communications, aviation, or astronauts. The 11-year solar-cycle variation in cosmic rays is highly correlated with the strength of the heliospheric magnetic field. Differences in GCR flux during alternate solar cycles yield a 22-year cycle, known as the Hale Cycle, which is thought to be due to different particle drift patterns when the northern solar pole has predominantly positive (denoted as qA>0 cycle) or negative (qA0 cycles than for qA0 and more sharply peaked for qA0 solar cycles, when the difference in GCR flux is most apparent. This suggests that particle drifts may not be the sole mechanism responsible for the Hale Cycle in GCR flux at Earth. However, we also demonstrate that these polarity-dependent heliospheric differences are evident during the space-age but are much less clear in earlier data: using geomagnetic reconstructions, we show that for the period of 1905 - 1965, alternate polarities do not give as significant a difference during the declining phase of the solar cycle. Thus we suggest that the 22-year cycle in cosmic-ray flux is at least partly the result of direct modulation by the heliospheric magnetic field and that this effect may be primarily limited to the grand solar maximum of the space-age

The Maunder minimum (1645-1715) was indeed a grand minimum: a reassessment of multiple datasets

Aims. Although the time of the Maunder minimum (1645–1715) is widely known as a period of extremely low solar activity, it is still being debated whether solar activity during that period might have been moderate or even higher than the current solar cycle (number 24). We have revisited all existing evidence and datasets, both direct and indirect, to assess the level of solar activity during the Maunder minimum. Methods. We discuss the East Asian naked-eye sunspot observations, the telescopic solar observations, the fraction of sunspot active days, the latitudinal extent of sunspot positions, auroral sightings at high latitudes, cosmogenic radionuclide data as well as solar eclipse observations for that period. We also consider peculiar features of the Sun (very strong hemispheric asymmetry of the sunspot location, unusual differential rotation and the lack of the K-corona) that imply a special mode of solar activity during the Maunder minimum. Results. The level of solar activity during the Maunder minimum is reassessed on the basis of all available datasets. Conclusions. We conclude that solar activity was indeed at an exceptionally low level during the Maunder minimum. Although the exact level is still unclear, it was definitely lower than during the Dalton minimum of around 1800 and significantly below that of the current solar cycle #24. Claims of a moderate-to-high level of solar activity during the Maunder minimum are rejected with a high confidence level

Sensitivity of the ground-based downwelling irradiance recorded by the FODIS sensor in respect of different angular positions

Some airborne hyperspectral sensors (e.g. AISA) can measure spectral downwelling irradiance using an additional cosine sensor mounted on a roof of an aircraft. The downwelling irradiance data, however, are rarely used for any atmospheric correction or compensation of different sun-sensor geometry, partly because they are sensitive towards continuous motion of the airborne platform. The airborne hyperspectral system AISA Eagle (Specim, Ltd., Finland), combined with the Fiber Optic Downwelling Irradiance Sensor (FODIS), were used for ground-based outdoor static measurements. The FODIS sensor was tilted into various zenith and azimuth angles. The data analysis revealed high sensitivity of the raw recorded FODIS signal towards different angular position. Simple cosine corrections reduced variation in the recorded FODIS signal. The variability (standard deviation of all measurements) decreased by 88% after the cosine correction was applied