Prognoza proizvodnje hidroenergije općim cirkulacijskim modelima primjenom tehnika strojnog i dubokog učenja (brana Almus, Turska)

Renewable energy is one of the most important factors for developed and sustainable societies. However, its utilization in electrical power grid systems can be very challenging regarding rates predictably. Renewable energy depends mainly on environmental conditions such as rainfall-runoff ratios and temperature. Because of that, the expected power production heavily fluctuates, which makes the prediction and calculation of feed-in into the power grid very challenging. The accurate forecasting of energy production is a very crucial issue for power management process. This paper presents the results of deploying Machine Learning Techniques in short-term forecasting of the amount of energy produced of General Circulation Models (GCMs) Data by Almus Dam and Hydroelectric Power Plant in Tokat, Turkey. The study demonstrates the use of modeling techniques in hydropower forecasting process using the predicted monthly hydroelectric power generation data of GCMs from 2018 to 2080. Decision Tree, Deep Learning, Generalized Linear, Gradient Boosted Trees and Random Forest models are utilized to forecast the hydropower production. The results show that the correlation value of the gradient boosted trees model equals 0.717, which means that the gradient boosted trees model is the most successful model for the present data. The gradient boosted trees model used in the prediction process for each GCM in each scenario is 4.5 and 8.5. The results show that there are small differences between the models, which means that the predictions are going in similar directions for all these models.Obnovljiva energija jedan je od najvažnijih čimbenika za razvijena i održiva društva. Međutim, njezina upotreba u elektroenergetskim sustavima može biti vrlo izazovna s obzirom na nepredvidljivost proizvodnje. Obnovljiva energija uglavnom ovisi o uvjetima okoline poput količine oborine, intenziteta otjecanja i temperature zraka. Zbog toga očekivana proizvodnja električne energije jako fluktuira, što prognozu i proračun njenog unosa u elektroenergetsku mrežu čini vrlo izazovnim zadatkom. Točno predviđanje proizvodnje energije iznimno je važno za proces upravljanja energijom. U ovom radu se predstavljaju rezultati primjene tehnika strojnog učenja u kratkoročnom predviđanju količine proizvedene energije na temelju rezultata općih modela cirkulacije (GCM) za branu i hidroelektranu Almus blizu naselja Tokat u Turskoj. Studija prikazuje upotrebu tehnika modeliranja u procesu prognoze proizvodnje hidroenergije pomoću prognoziranih mjesečnih podataka GCM-a o proizvodnji hidroelektrana u razdoblju od 2018. do 2080. Za prognozu proizvodnje hidroenergije korišteni su modeli: dijagrama odlučivanja, dubinskog učenja, generalizirani linearni, dijagrama pojačanih nagiba i dijagrama slučajnih grana. Vrijednost korelacije s modelom dijagrama pojačanih nagiba iznosi 0,717, što znači da je to najuspješniji model za korištene podatke. Model dijagrama pojačanih nagiba korišten je u svakom GCM-u za dva scenarija: RCP4.5 i RCP8.5. Rezultati pokazuju da postoje male razlike između modela, što znači da predviđanja idu u sličnim smjerovima za sve ove model

Reporting of Financial and Non-financial Conflicts of Interest in Systematic Reviews on Health Policy and Systems Research: A Cross Sectional Survey

Background Systematic reviews are increasingly used to inform health policy-making. The conflicts of interest (COI) of the authors of systematic reviews may bias their results and influence their conclusions. This may in turn lead to misguided public policies and systems level decisions. In order to mitigate the adverse impact of COI, scientific journals require authors to disclose their COIs. The objective of this study was to assess the frequency and different types of COI that authors of systematic reviews on health policy and systems research (HSPR) report. Methods We conducted a cross sectional survey. We searched the Health Systems Evidence (HSE) database of McMaster Health Forum for systematic reviews published in 2015. We extracted information regarding the characteristics of the systematic reviews and the associated COI disclosures. We conducted descriptive analyses. Results Eighty percent of systematic reviews included authors’ COI disclosures. Of the 160 systematic reviews that included COI disclosures, 15% had at least one author reporting at least one type of COI. The two most frequently reported types of COI were individual financial COI and individual scholarly COI (11% and 4% respectively). Institutional COIs were less commonly reported than individual COIs (3% and 15% respectively) and non-financial COIs were less commonly reported than financial COIs (6% and 14% respectively). Only one systematic review reported the COI disclosure by editors, and none reported disclosure by peer reviewers. All COI disclosures were in the form of a narrative statement in the main document and none in an online document. Conclusion A fifth of systematic reviews in HPSR do not include a COI disclosure statement, highlighting the need for journals to strengthen and/or better implement their COI disclosure policies. While only 15% of identified disclosure statements report any COI, it is not clear whether this indicates a low frequency of COI versus an underreporting of COI, or both

Reporting of Financial and Non-financial Conflicts of Interest in Systematic Reviews on Health Policy and Systems Research: A Cross Sectional Survey

Abstract Background: Systematic reviews are increasingly used to inform health policy-making. The conflicts of interest (COI) of the authors of systematic reviews may bias their results and influence their conclusions. This may in turn lead to misguided public policies and systems level decisions. In order to mitigate the adverse impact of COI, scientific journals require authors to disclose their COIs. The objective of this study was to assess the frequency and different types of COI that authors of systematic reviews on health policy and systems research (HSPR) report. Methods: We conducted a cross sectional survey. We searched the Health Systems Evidence (HSE) database of McMaster Health Forum for systematic reviews published in 2015. We extracted information regarding the characteristics of the systematic reviews and the associated COI disclosures. We conducted descriptive analyses. Results: Eighty percent of systematic reviews included authors’ COI disclosures. Of the 160 systematic reviews that included COI disclosures, 15% had at least one author reporting at least one type of COI. The two most frequently reported types of COI were individual financial COI and individual scholarly COI (11% and 4% respectively). Institutional COIs were less commonly reported than individual COIs (3% and 15% respectively) and non-financial COIs were less commonly reported than financial COIs (6% and 14% respectively). Only one systematic review reported the COI disclosure by editors, and none reported disclosure by peer reviewers. All COI disclosures were in the form of a narrative statement in the main document and none in an online document. Conclusion: A fifth of systematic reviews in HPSR do not include a COI disclosure statement, highlighting the need for journals to strengthen and/or better implement their COI disclosure policies. While only 15% of identified disclosure statements report any COI, it is not clear whether this indicates a low frequency of COI versus an underreporting of COI, or both

Health in times of uncertainty in the eastern Mediterranean region, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background: The eastern Mediterranean region is comprised of 22 countries: Afghanistan, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen. Since our Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010), the region has faced unrest as a result of revolutions, wars, and the so-called Arab uprisings. The objective of this study was to present the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors in the eastern Mediterranean region as of 2013. Methods: GBD 2013 includes an annual assessment covering 188 countries from 1990 to 2013. The study covers 306 diseases and injuries, 1233 sequelae, and 79 risk factors. Our GBD 2013 analyses included the addition of new data through updated systematic reviews and through the contribution of unpublished data sources from collaborators, an updated version of modelling software, and several improvements in our methods. In this systematic analysis, we use data from GBD 2013 to analyse the burden of disease and injuries in the eastern Mediterranean region specifically. Findings: The leading cause of death in the region in 2013 was ischaemic heart disease (90·3 deaths per 100 000 people), which increased by 17·2% since 1990. However, diarrhoeal diseases were the leading cause of death in Somalia (186·7 deaths per 100 000 people) in 2013, which decreased by 26·9% since 1990. The leading cause of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) was ischaemic heart disease for males and lower respiratory infection for females. High blood pressure was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 2013, with an increase of 83·3% since 1990. Risk factors for DALYs varied by country. In low-income countries, childhood wasting was the leading cause of DALYs in Afghanistan, Somalia, and Yemen, whereas unsafe sex was the leading cause in Djibouti. Non-communicable risk factors were the leading cause of DALYs in high-income and middle-income countries in the region. DALY risk factors varied by age, with child and maternal malnutrition affecting the younger age groups (aged 28 days to 4 years), whereas high bodyweight and systolic blood pressure affected older people (aged 60–80 years). The proportion of DALYs attributed to high body-mass index increased from 3·7% to 7·5% between 1990 and 2013. Burden of mental health problems and drug use increased. Most increases in DALYs, especially from non-communicable diseases, were due to population growth. The crises in Egypt, Yemen, Libya, and Syria have resulted in a reduction in life expectancy; life expectancy in Syria would have been 5 years higher than that recorded for females and 6 years higher for males had the crisis not occurred. Interpretation: Our study shows that the eastern Mediterranean region is going through a crucial health phase. The Arab uprisings and the wars that followed, coupled with ageing and population growth, will have a major impact on the region's health and resources. The region has historically seen improvements in life expectancy and other health indicators, even under stress. However, the current situation will cause deteriorating health conditions for many countries and for many years and will have an impact on the region and the rest of the world. Based on our findings, we call for increased investment in health in the region in addition to reducing the conflicts

The Burden of Mental Disorders in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990-2013

Charara R, Forouzanfar M, Naghavi M, et al. The Burden of Mental Disorders in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990-2013. PLOS ONE. 2017;12(1): e0169575.The Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) is witnessing an increase in chronic disorders, including mental illness. With ongoing unrest, this is expected to rise. This is the first study to quantify the burden of mental disorders in the EMR. We used data from the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD) 2013. DALYs (disability-adjusted life years) allow assessment of both premature mortality (years of life lost-YLLs) and nonfatal outcomes (years lived with disability-YLDs). DALYs are computed by adding YLLs and YLDs for each age-sex-country group. In 2013, mental disorders contributed to 5.6% of the total disease burden in the EMR (1894 DALYS/100,000 population): 2519 DALYS/100,000 (2590/100,000 males, 2426/100,000 females) in high-income countries, 1884 DALYS/100,000 (1618/100,000 males, 2157/100,000 females) in middle-income countries, 1607 DALYS/100,000 (1500/100,000 males, 1717/100,000 females) in low-income countries. Females had a greater proportion of burden due to mental disorders than did males of equivalent ages, except for those under 15 years of age. The highest proportion of DALYs occurred in the 25-49 age group, with a peak in the 35-39 years age group (5344 DALYs/100,000). The burden of mental disorders in EMR increased from 1726 DALYs/100,000 in 1990 to 1912 DALYs/100,000 in 2013 (10.8% increase). Within the mental disorders group in EMR, depressive disorders accounted for most DALYs, followed by anxiety disorders. Among EMR countries, Palestine had the largest burden of mental disorders. Nearly all EMR countries had a higher mental disorder burden compared to the global level. Our findings call for EMR ministries of health to increase provision of mental health services and to address the stigma of mental illness. Moreover, our results showing the accelerating burden of mental health are alarming as the region is seeing an increased level of instability. Indeed, mental health problems, if not properly addressed, will lead to an increased burden of diseases in the region

Health in times of uncertainty in the eastern Mediterranean region, 1990�2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The eastern Mediterranean region is comprised of 22 countries: Afghanistan, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen. Since our Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010), the region has faced unrest as a result of revolutions, wars, and the so-called Arab uprisings. The objective of this study was to present the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors in the eastern Mediterranean region as of 2013. Methods GBD 2013 includes an annual assessment covering 188 countries from 1990 to 2013. The study covers 306 diseases and injuries, 1233 sequelae, and 79 risk factors. Our GBD 2013 analyses included the addition of new data through updated systematic reviews and through the contribution of unpublished data sources from collaborators, an updated version of modelling software, and several improvements in our methods. In this systematic analysis, we use data from GBD 2013 to analyse the burden of disease and injuries in the eastern Mediterranean region specifically. Findings The leading cause of death in the region in 2013 was ischaemic heart disease (90·3 deaths per 100�000 people), which increased by 17·2 since 1990. However, diarrhoeal diseases were the leading cause of death in Somalia (186·7 deaths per 100�000 people) in 2013, which decreased by 26·9 since 1990. The leading cause of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) was ischaemic heart disease for males and lower respiratory infection for females. High blood pressure was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 2013, with an increase of 83·3 since 1990. Risk factors for DALYs varied by country. In low-income countries, childhood wasting was the leading cause of DALYs in Afghanistan, Somalia, and Yemen, whereas unsafe sex was the leading cause in Djibouti. Non-communicable risk factors were the leading cause of DALYs in high-income and middle-income countries in the region. DALY risk factors varied by age, with child and maternal malnutrition affecting the younger age groups (aged 28 days to 4 years), whereas high bodyweight and systolic blood pressure affected older people (aged 60�80 years). The proportion of DALYs attributed to high body-mass index increased from 3·7 to 7·5 between 1990 and 2013. Burden of mental health problems and drug use increased. Most increases in DALYs, especially from non-communicable diseases, were due to population growth. The crises in Egypt, Yemen, Libya, and Syria have resulted in a reduction in life expectancy; life expectancy in Syria would have been 5 years higher than that recorded for females and 6 years higher for males had the crisis not occurred. Interpretation Our study shows that the eastern Mediterranean region is going through a crucial health phase. The Arab uprisings and the wars that followed, coupled with ageing and population growth, will have a major impact on the region's health and resources. The region has historically seen improvements in life expectancy and other health indicators, even under stress. However, the current situation will cause deteriorating health conditions for many countries and for many years and will have an impact on the region and the rest of the world. Based on our findings, we call for increased investment in health in the region in addition to reducing the conflicts. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY licens

Modern approach to numerical modelling of anchored protective structures

radu je opisan suvremeni pristup numeričkom modeliranju sidrenih zaštitnih konstrukcija s osvrtom na iskustva u primjeni računalnog programa Plaxis 2D i modela tla s izotropnim očvršćivanjem. Objašnjena su osnovna obilježja u ponašanju tla u dreniranim i nedreniranim uvjetima za naprezanja koja se pojavljuju pri iskopu građevne jame. Prikazan je primjer simulacije sidrene zaštitne konstrukcije i dane su smjernice za strategiju odabira parametara materijala HSs modela tla.modern approach to numerical modelling of anchored protective structures is presented in the paper, and an overview is given of experience gained in the use of the Plaxis 2D computer program, and soil model with isotropic strengthening. Basic properties of soil in drained and undrained conditions, due to stress occurring during foundation pit excavation, are explained. An example involving simulation of an anchored protective structure is presented, and guidelines for the selection of soil materials for the HSs soil model are given

تقييم و تطوير الاداء باستخدام نظم دعم القرار المكاني لشبكة مياه مدينة غزة : دراسة حالة منطقة النصر الشمالي

Studies have been expanded heavily at water networks sector. It is resorting to determine the causes of losses at networks, as well as to reduce the leakage and work on water delivery in accordance with the demographic distribution of the growing dramatically in developing countries specially. The objective of this research is to stand on performance evaluation of Gaza City water network by using hydraulic modeling and geographic information system, assess the efficiency of network (The northern Nasser area from El Jalaa Street to Shiekh Radwan) and develop Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) of The northern Nasser water network as a pilot scale. All the data were taken from the field measurements, references and WaterCAD results. The population counts were generated from Geographic Information System (GIS) programs, and Excel sheets were used to get missing data. A hydraulic model was analyzed at the pilot distribution zones. Calibration and SDSS used to identify the technical problems at prototype. A pilot study area (Zone 1) was divided into two zones (Zone 1A and 1B). Six data logger were put at pipelines which supply zones to measure the flow rate and the pressure. The data logger measurements used to calibrate the model. SDSS was proposed for the pilot area (Zone 1A and 1B). Calibration accuracy (the difference between modeling and data logger values) nearly reached to 96%. The results indicated that 82% of Zone B, the water velocity ranged between 0-0.25 m/s while in Zone A the percentage is 59%. 70% of the water pressure at Zone A has 2 bars while in Zone B the percentage is 72% for 1 bar. The low values of the velocities may result from the leakage at the system. The developed SDSS of the pilot scale study may be used at all zones of Gaza city to improve the network efficiency and effectiveness of operation. In addition, the results of this research will be the base of Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA( system to make the system more automated and specify any sudden problem at the system and to give more accurate data