Cone penetration testing in polar snow

Innovative Cone Penetration Testing (CPT) using adapted commercial CPT equipment was conducted in Antarctica in early 2010 in an attempt to assess the strength of polar snow; additionally, application of CPT data was considered, particularly in estimating surface bearing capacity. Almost 100 CPT tests were carried out and both qualitative and quantitative analysis of data was undertaken. Additional supporting testing in- cluded snow density assessment, snow strength assessment, extrapolation of CPT data via Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) and preliminary mini-cone penetrometer testing in Greenland. Analysis of results revealed that assessing the strength of polar snow via CPT is affected by numerous factors including penetration rate, cone size/shape and snow material properties, particularly compaction of the snow undergoing penetration. A density-dependant relationship between CPT resistance and snow shear strength was established, and methods for estimating surface bearing capacity directly from CPT in homogeneous and layered polar snow were proposed. This work applied existing technology in a new material and shows that CPT can be used efficiently in polar environs to provide estimates of snow shear strength and surface bearing capacity, to depths of 10 m or more

Detecting the subglacial conditions at Store Glacier, West Greenland, using a combined seismic-radar survey

As part of the research project RESPONDER, we performed two combined radar-seismic surveys to identify the bed conditions and suitable drilling locations at Store Glacier, a marine-terminating glacier in West Greenland. The two sites at 30 (Low Site) and 60 km (High Site) upstream of the snout of the glacier are thought to be part of the same subglacial drainage system but have different conditions both at the surface and at the base. As the ice-bed contact in the seismic data was sometimes difficult to identify we used the radar (Ground Penetrating Radar) data for confirmation. At the Low Site in the ablation zone, the surface is icy and crevassed. The five 2 to 3 km long seismic profiles show a large subglacial trench (width 2 km, depth 350 m) orientated in flow direction. The basal conditions vary with patches water, whether or not present in saturated sediments or exclusively at the base, both at the along-flow and across-flow profiles but they appear mainly at the sloping sides of the trench. The NE side of the trench contains a 100 to 150 m thick stratified sequence of softer, less consolidated sediments. At the High Site at equilibrium line, the surface is snowy with two frozen supra-glacial lakes. The two seismic profiles show less topography but have a similar patchy character. Despite thicker ice the ice-bed contact is much clearer visible in the seismic data which we contribute to a better coupled snowstreamer. The 5 km along-flowprofile has a flat base consisting of sediments. A clear single englacial reflection following the shape of the base can be seen at 85% depth of the ice column, possibly the Holocene-Wisconsin transition. At the 1.7 km across-flow profile there is a 130 m rise of the bed from S to N. Judging by the strength of the basal reflection the sediments at the northern side are softer then at the southern side

Atmospheric Consequences of Cosmic Ray Variability in the Extragalactic Shock Model II: Revised ionization levels and their consequences

It has been suggested that galactic shock asymmetry induced by our galaxy's infall toward the Virgo Cluster may be a source of periodicity in cosmic ray exposure as the solar system oscillates perpendicular to the galactic plane. Here we investigate a mechanism by which cosmic rays might affect terrestrial biodiversity, ionization and dissociation in the atmosphere, resulting in depletion of ozone and a resulting increase in the dangerous solar UVB flux on the ground, with an improved ionization background computation averaged over a massive ensemble (about 7 x 10^5) shower simulations. We study minimal and full exposure to the postulated extragalactic background. The atmospheric effects are greater than with our earlier, simplified ionization model. At the lower end of the range effects are too small to be of serious consequence. At the upper end of the range, ~6 % global average loss of ozone column density exceeds that currently experienced due to effects such as accumulated chlorofluorocarbons. The intensity is less than a nearby supernova or galactic gamma-ray burst, but the duration would be about 10^6 times longer. Present UVB enhancement from current ozone depletion ~3% is a documented stress on the biosphere, but a depletion of the magnitude found at the upper end of our range would double the global average UVB flux. For estimates at the upper end of the range of the cosmic ray variability over geologic time, the mechanism of atmospheric ozone depletion may provide a major biological stress, which could easily bring about major loss of biodiversity. Future high energy astrophysical observations will resolve the question of whether such depletion is likely.Comment: 22 pages, 5 figures, to be published in Journal of Geophysical Research--Planets. This is an update and replacement for our 2008 paper, with a much more extensive simulation of air shower ionization. Ionization effects and ozone depletion are somewhat large

The Central-Bank Balance Sheet as an Instrument of Monetary Policy

While many analyses of monetary policy consider only a target for a short-term nominal interest rate, other dimensions of policy have recently been of greater importance: changes in the supply of bank reserves, changes in the assets acquired by central banks, and changes in the interest rate paid on reserves. We extend a standard New Keynesian model to allow a role for the central bank's balance sheet in equilibrium determination, and consider the connections between these alternative dimensions of policy and traditional interest-rate policy. We distinguish between "quantitative easing" in the strict sense and targeted asset purchases by a central bank, and argue that while the former is likely be ineffective at all times, the latter dimension of policy can be effective when financial markets are sufficiently disrupted. Neither is a perfect substitute for conventional interest-rate policy, but purchases of illiquid assets are particularly likely to improve welfare when the zero lower bound on the policy rate is reached. We also consider optimal policy with regard to the payment of interest on reserves; in our model, this requires that the interest rate on reserves be kept near the target for the policy rate at all times

Human observations of late Quaternary coastal change: examples from Australia, Europe and the Pacific Islands

In the aftermath of the last ice age, when sea level rose along most of the world's coastline, the activities of coastal peoples were impacted by coastal submergence, land loss and sometimes isolation as offshore islands formed. In some parts of the world, there is clear evidence that people encoded their observations of postglacial sea-level rise into oral traditions that were communicated across hundreds of generations to reach us today in an intelligible form. In other contexts, people's observations of rising sea level are likely to have formed the foundations of ‘legends’ about undersea places and the peoples inhabiting them. For a selection of coastal sites in Australia and northwest Europe, this study discusses a range of contrasting situations in which culturally-grounded stories about coastal submergence, land loss and isolation plausibly recollect the nature and effects of postglacial sea-level rise. Using science-based histories of postglacial sea-level change, minimum ages are determined for each group of site-specific stories; in the case of Australia, these range from 7000–11,500 BP, for northwest Europe from 5500 to 9500 BP. For selected sites in the Pacific Islands, where human settlement about 3000 years BP post-dated the end of postglacial sea-level rise, localized submergence is recalled in traditional stories of local people. It is argued that studies of late Quaternary coastal evolution can often be filled out by adding details from stories preserved in local cultures, something which leads to a clearer picture of the human-societal impacts of coastal submergence and land loss than can be obtained from palaeoenvironmental reconstructions and geological evidence alone

Evaluating privacy-preserving record linkage using cryptographic long-term keys and multibit trees on large medical datasets.

Background: Integrating medical data using databases from different sources by record linkage is a powerful technique increasingly used in medical research. Under many jurisdictions, unique personal identifiers needed for linking the records are unavailable. Since sensitive attributes, such as names, have to be used instead, privacy regulations usually demand encrypting these identifiers. The corresponding set of techniques for privacy-preserving record linkage (PPRL) has received widespread attention. One recent method is based on Bloom filters. Due to superior resilience against cryptographic attacks, composite Bloom filters (cryptographic long-term keys, CLKs) are considered best practice for privacy in PPRL. Real-world performance of these techniques using large-scale data is unknown up to now. Methods: Using a large subset of Australian hospital admission data, we tested the performance of an innovative PPRL technique (CLKs using multibit trees) against a gold-standard derived from clear-text probabilistic record linkage. Linkage time and linkage quality (recall, precision and F-measure) were evaluated. Results: Clear text probabilistic linkage resulted in marginally higher precision and recall than CLKs. PPRL required more computing time but 5 million records could still be de-duplicated within one day. However, the PPRL approach required fine tuning of parameters. Conclusions: We argue that increased privacy of PPRL comes with the price of small losses in precision and recall and a large increase in computational burden and setup time. These costs seem to be acceptable in most applied settings, but they have to be considered in the decision to apply PPRL. Further research on the optimal automatic choice of parameters is needed

Effect of Hydrocortisone on Mortality and Organ Support in Patients With Severe COVID-19: The REMAP-CAP COVID-19 Corticosteroid Domain Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Evidence regarding corticosteroid use for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is limited. Objective: To determine whether hydrocortisone improves outcome for patients with severe COVID-19. Design, Setting, and Participants: An ongoing adaptive platform trial testing multiple interventions within multiple therapeutic domains, for example, antiviral agents, corticosteroids, or immunoglobulin. Between March 9 and June 17, 2020, 614 adult patients with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 were enrolled and randomized within at least 1 domain following admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) for respiratory or cardiovascular organ support at 121 sites in 8 countries. Of these, 403 were randomized to open-label interventions within the corticosteroid domain. The domain was halted after results from another trial were released. Follow-up ended August 12, 2020. Interventions: The corticosteroid domain randomized participants to a fixed 7-day course of intravenous hydrocortisone (50 mg or 100 mg every 6 hours) (n = 143), a shock-dependent course (50 mg every 6 hours when shock was clinically evident) (n = 152), or no hydrocortisone (n = 108). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was organ support-free days (days alive and free of ICU-based respiratory or cardiovascular support) within 21 days, where patients who died were assigned -1 day. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model that included all patients enrolled with severe COVID-19, adjusting for age, sex, site, region, time, assignment to interventions within other domains, and domain and intervention eligibility. Superiority was defined as the posterior probability of an odds ratio greater than 1 (threshold for trial conclusion of superiority >99%). Results: After excluding 19 participants who withdrew consent, there were 384 patients (mean age, 60 years; 29% female) randomized to the fixed-dose (n = 137), shock-dependent (n = 146), and no (n = 101) hydrocortisone groups; 379 (99%) completed the study and were included in the analysis. The mean age for the 3 groups ranged between 59.5 and 60.4 years; most patients were male (range, 70.6%-71.5%); mean body mass index ranged between 29.7 and 30.9; and patients receiving mechanical ventilation ranged between 50.0% and 63.5%. For the fixed-dose, shock-dependent, and no hydrocortisone groups, respectively, the median organ support-free days were 0 (IQR, -1 to 15), 0 (IQR, -1 to 13), and 0 (-1 to 11) days (composed of 30%, 26%, and 33% mortality rates and 11.5, 9.5, and 6 median organ support-free days among survivors). The median adjusted odds ratio and bayesian probability of superiority were 1.43 (95% credible interval, 0.91-2.27) and 93% for fixed-dose hydrocortisone, respectively, and were 1.22 (95% credible interval, 0.76-1.94) and 80% for shock-dependent hydrocortisone compared with no hydrocortisone. Serious adverse events were reported in 4 (3%), 5 (3%), and 1 (1%) patients in the fixed-dose, shock-dependent, and no hydrocortisone groups, respectively. Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients with severe COVID-19, treatment with a 7-day fixed-dose course of hydrocortisone or shock-dependent dosing of hydrocortisone, compared with no hydrocortisone, resulted in 93% and 80% probabilities of superiority with regard to the odds of improvement in organ support-free days within 21 days. However, the trial was stopped early and no treatment strategy met prespecified criteria for statistical superiority, precluding definitive conclusions. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02735707

The development and validation of a scoring tool to predict the operative duration of elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background: The ability to accurately predict operative duration has the potential to optimise theatre efficiency and utilisation, thus reducing costs and increasing staff and patient satisfaction. With laparoscopic cholecystectomy being one of the most commonly performed procedures worldwide, a tool to predict operative duration could be extremely beneficial to healthcare organisations. Methods: Data collected from the CholeS study on patients undergoing cholecystectomy in UK and Irish hospitals between 04/2014 and 05/2014 were used to study operative duration. A multivariable binary logistic regression model was produced in order to identify significant independent predictors of long (> 90 min) operations. The resulting model was converted to a risk score, which was subsequently validated on second cohort of patients using ROC curves. Results: After exclusions, data were available for 7227 patients in the derivation (CholeS) cohort. The median operative duration was 60 min (interquartile range 45–85), with 17.7% of operations lasting longer than 90 min. Ten factors were found to be significant independent predictors of operative durations > 90 min, including ASA, age, previous surgical admissions, BMI, gallbladder wall thickness and CBD diameter. A risk score was then produced from these factors, and applied to a cohort of 2405 patients from a tertiary centre for external validation. This returned an area under the ROC curve of 0.708 (SE = 0.013, p  90 min increasing more than eightfold from 5.1 to 41.8% in the extremes of the score. Conclusion: The scoring tool produced in this study was found to be significantly predictive of long operative durations on validation in an external cohort. As such, the tool may have the potential to enable organisations to better organise theatre lists and deliver greater efficiencies in care