Seasonal prediction of precipitation over Nigeria

The availability of quantitative means of probing anticipated rainfall is essential for the purpose of planning and policy formulation everywhere in the world. However reliable prediction of rainfall remains a challenge over West Africa and Nigeria in particular. This paper predicts sea-sonal rainfall in Nigeria with the hope of increasing the reliability of predicted seasonal rainfall. Seasonal rainfall data (June-September) from 21 Nigerian stations and monthly Extended Re-constructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) of the tropical Oceans spanning 1960-2012 con-stituted the input data for the formulation of prediction equations using regression analysis. Cross-validation was applied with training period of 1960-1985, verification period of 1986-2012 and vice versa. The correlations between the predicted and the observed seasonal rainfall of the training and verification periods of 1960-1985 were all significant at 5 % level except for one station. While for the training and verification periods of 1986-2012, correlations are not gener-ally significant although some were found to be above the significant level of 5%. For the recon-structed seasonal precipitation, correlations of ten stations were found to be significant at 5 %, but at 10 % level, their number increased to 13. The t-test analysis revealed that there is no sig-nificant difference between the means of predicted and observed seasonal rainfall amount for all stations except for only three stations (Osogbo, Calabar and Enugu). This suggests some degree of skill which is also an indication that Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is a good predictor of June, July, August and September (JJAS) seasonal rainfall in Nigeria.Keywords: Rainfall, Prediction, Tropical Ocean, Cross-validation, Sea Surface Temperatur

Estimation of Surface Energy Fluxes from Bare Ground in a Tropical Station using Priestley Taylor Method

This investigation was designed to test the performance of Priestley Taylor method in the partitioning of the available energy into sensible and latent heat fluxes in a tropical site. Compared to eddy covariance measured fluxes, the conventional Priestley Taylor constant (αPT) of 1.25 gave low coefficient of determination and high bias error for both sensible and latent heat fluxes. It overestimated latent heat flux in the noon and afternoon but underestimated sensible heat flux. The bias error reduced and the coefficient of determination increased for sensible heat flux when αPT value was reduced to 1.0. The bias error for latent heat also reduced but the coefficient of determination did not change with the reduction in αPT value. The root mean square error reduced with the reduction in the αPT value. Compared to measured fluxes, coefficient of determination of sensible heat flux ranged from 0.82 to 0.90 while that of latent heat flux ranged from 0.78 to 0.9. Priestley Taylor method is recommended for partitioning of available energy into its component sensible and latent heat fluxes.Keywords: αPT value, energy, latent heat ,flu

Robust late twenty-first century shift in the regional monsoons in RegCM-CORDEX simulations

AbstractWe use an unprecedented ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) projections over seven regional CORDEX domains to provide, for the first time, an RCM-based global view of monsoon changes at various levels of increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. All regional simulations are conducted using RegCM4 at a 25 km horizontal grid spacing using lateral and lower boundary forcing from three General Circulation Models (GCMs), which are part of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). Each simulation covers the period from 1970 through 2100 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Regional climate simulations exhibit high fidelity in capturing key characteristics of precipitation and atmospheric dynamics across monsoon regions in the historical period. In the future period, regional monsoons exhibit a spatially robust delay in the monsoon onset, an increase in seasonality, and a reduction in the rainy season length at higher levels of radiative forcing. All regions with substantial delays in the monsoon onset exhibit a decrease in pre-monsoon precipitation, indicating a strong connection between pre-monsoon drying and a shift in the monsoon onset. The weakening of latent heat driven atmospheric warming during the pre-monsoon period delays the overturning of atmospheric subsidence in the monsoon regions, which defers their transitioning into deep convective states. Monsoon changes under the RCP2.6 scenario are mostly within the baseline variability

Sexual behavior and experience of sexual coercion among secondary school students in three states in North Eastern Nigeria

BACKGROUND: Interest in the reproductive health of adolescents continues to grow throughout the world. Few studies had explored the reproductive health knowledge, sexual behavior and experience of sexual coercion among secondary school students in North Eastern states of Nigeria. The objectives of this descriptive survey were to collect data to plan appropriate interventions that meet the reproductive health knowledge, service and skills needs of students in Bauchi, Borno and Gombe states. METHODS: Face-to-face interviews were conducted for 624 consenting students who were randomly selected from eighteen secondary schools using an 83-item structured questionnaire. Data were collected on demographic profile, reproductive health knowledge, sexual behavior and experience of sexual coercion. RESULTS: The mean age of the respondents was 16.5 years. There were slightly more males (52%) than females (48%). Students' knowledge about reproductive health was generally low even though girls had better knowledge than boys. Thirteen percent of the entire students had had sexual experience; significantly more males (19%) than females (6%) had done so (p < 0.001). Among boys the age at sexual debut ranged from 10–26 with a mean of 15.7 and median of 16. By contrast, the age at first sex among girls ranged from 10 to 18 years with a mean and median of 16.1 and 17 years respectively. Only 24% of those who were sexually active used a condom during their last sexual encounter. Overall 11% of the students reported that they had been tricked into having sex, 9% had experienced unwanted touch of breast and backside, and 5% reported rape. CONCLUSION: Students low reproductive health knowledge and involvement in risky sexual activities predispose them to undesirable reproductive health outcomes

Validity and reliability of a modified english version of the physical activity questionnaire for adolescents

BACKGROUND: Adaptation of physical activity self-report questionnaires is sometimes required to reflect the activity behaviours of diverse populations. The processes used to modify self-report questionnaires though are typically underreported. This two-phased study used a formative approach to investigate the validity and reliability of the Physical Activity Questionnaire for Adolescents (PAQ-A) in English youth. Phase one examined test content and response process validity and subsequently informed a modified version of the PAQ-A. Phase two assessed the validity and reliability of the modified PAQ-A. METHODS: In phase one, focus groups (n = 5) were conducted with adolescents (n = 20) to investigate test content and response processes of the original PAQ-A. Based on evidence gathered in phase one, a modified version of the questionnaire was administered to participants (n = 169, 14.5 ± 1.7 years) in phase two. Internal consistency and test-retest reliability were assessed using Cronbach’s alpha and intra-class correlations, respectively. Spearman correlations were used to assess associations between modified PAQ-A scores and accelerometer-derived physical activity, self-reported fitness and physical activity self-efficacy. RESULTS: Phase one revealed that the original PAQ-A was unrepresentative for English youth and that item comprehension varied. Contextual and population/cultural-specific modifications were made to the PAQ-A for use in the subsequent phase. In phase two, modified PAQ-A scores had acceptable internal consistency (α = 0.72) and test-retest reliability (ICC = 0.78). Modified PAQ-A scores were significantly associated with objectively assessed moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (r = 0.39), total physical activity (r = 0.42), self-reported fitness (r = 0.35), and physical activity self-efficacy (r = 0.32) (p ≤ 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: The modified PAQ-A had acceptable internal consistency and test-retest reliability. Modified PAQ-A scores displayed weak-to-moderate correlations with objectively measured physical activity, self-reported fitness, and self-efficacy providing evidence of satisfactory criterion and construct validity, respectively. Further testing with more diverse English samples is recommended to provide a more complete assessment of the tool. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13690-016-0115-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Novel functional insights into ischemic stroke biology provided by the first genome-wide association study of stroke in indigenous Africans

\ua9 The Author(s) 2024. Background: African ancestry populations have the highest burden of stroke worldwide, yet the genetic basis of stroke in these populations is obscure. The Stroke Investigative Research and Educational Network (SIREN) is a multicenter study involving 16 sites in West Africa. We conducted the first-ever genome-wide association study (GWAS) of stroke in indigenous Africans. Methods: Cases were consecutively recruited consenting adults (aged &gt; 18 years) with neuroimaging-confirmed ischemic stroke. Stroke-free controls were ascertained using a locally validated Questionnaire for Verifying Stroke-Free Status. DNA genotyping with the H3Africa array was performed, and following initial quality control, GWAS datasets were imputed into the NIH Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) release2 from BioData Catalyst. Furthermore, we performed fine-mapping, trans-ethnic meta-analysis, and in silico functional characterization to identify likely causal variants with a functional interpretation. Results: We observed genome-wide significant (P-value &lt; 5.0E−8) SNPs associations near AADACL2 and miRNA (MIR5186) genes in chromosome 3 after adjusting for hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, and cardiac status in the base model as covariates. SNPs near the miRNA (MIR4458) gene in chromosome 5 were also associated with stroke (P-value &lt; 1.0E−6). The putative genes near AADACL2, MIR5186, and MIR4458 genes were protective and novel. SNPs associations with stroke in chromosome 2 were more than 77 kb from the closest gene LINC01854 and SNPs in chromosome 7 were more than 116 kb to the closest gene LINC01446 (P-value &lt; 1.0E−6). In addition, we observed SNPs in genes STXBP5-AS1 (chromosome 6), GALTN9 (chromosome 12), FANCA (chromosome 16), and DLGAP1 (chromosome 18) (P-value &lt; 1.0E−6). Both genomic regions near genes AADACL2 and MIR4458 remained significant following fine mapping. Conclusions: Our findings identify potential roles of regulatory miRNA, intergenic non-coding DNA, and intronic non-coding RNA in the biology of ischemic stroke. These findings reveal new molecular targets that promise to help close the current gaps in accurate African ancestry-based genetic stroke’s risk prediction and development of new targeted interventions to prevent or treat stroke

Laparoscopy in management of appendicitis in high-, middle-, and low-income countries: a multicenter, prospective, cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Appendicitis is the most common abdominal surgical emergency worldwide. Differences between high- and low-income settings in the availability of laparoscopic appendectomy, alternative management choices, and outcomes are poorly described. The aim was to identify variation in surgical management and outcomes of appendicitis within low-, middle-, and high-Human Development Index (HDI) countries worldwide. METHODS: This is a multicenter, international prospective cohort study. Consecutive sampling of patients undergoing emergency appendectomy over 6 months was conducted. Follow-up lasted 30 days. RESULTS: 4546 patients from 52 countries underwent appendectomy (2499 high-, 1540 middle-, and 507 low-HDI groups). Surgical site infection (SSI) rates were higher in low-HDI (OR 2.57, 95% CI 1.33-4.99, p = 0.005) but not middle-HDI countries (OR 1.38, 95% CI 0.76-2.52, p = 0.291), compared with high-HDI countries after adjustment. A laparoscopic approach was common in high-HDI countries (1693/2499, 67.7%), but infrequent in low-HDI (41/507, 8.1%) and middle-HDI (132/1540, 8.6%) groups. After accounting for case-mix, laparoscopy was still associated with fewer overall complications (OR 0.55, 95% CI 0.42-0.71, p < 0.001) and SSIs (OR 0.22, 95% CI 0.14-0.33, p < 0.001). In propensity-score matched groups within low-/middle-HDI countries, laparoscopy was still associated with fewer overall complications (OR 0.23 95% CI 0.11-0.44) and SSI (OR 0.21 95% CI 0.09-0.45). CONCLUSION: A laparoscopic approach is associated with better outcomes and availability appears to differ by country HDI. Despite the profound clinical, operational, and financial barriers to its widespread introduction, laparoscopy could significantly improve outcomes for patients in low-resource environments. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02179112

Pooled analysis of WHO Surgical Safety Checklist use and mortality after emergency laparotomy

Background The World Health Organization (WHO) Surgical Safety Checklist has fostered safe practice for 10 years, yet its place in emergency surgery has not been assessed on a global scale. The aim of this study was to evaluate reported checklist use in emergency settings and examine the relationship with perioperative mortality in patients who had emergency laparotomy. Methods In two multinational cohort studies, adults undergoing emergency laparotomy were compared with those having elective gastrointestinal surgery. Relationships between reported checklist use and mortality were determined using multivariable logistic regression and bootstrapped simulation. Results Of 12 296 patients included from 76 countries, 4843 underwent emergency laparotomy. After adjusting for patient and disease factors, checklist use before emergency laparotomy was more common in countries with a high Human Development Index (HDI) (2455 of 2741, 89.6 per cent) compared with that in countries with a middle (753 of 1242, 60.6 per cent; odds ratio (OR) 0.17, 95 per cent c.i. 0.14 to 0.21, P <0001) or low (363 of 860, 422 per cent; OR 008, 007 to 010, P <0.001) HDI. Checklist use was less common in elective surgery than for emergency laparotomy in high-HDI countries (risk difference -94 (95 per cent c.i. -11.9 to -6.9) per cent; P <0001), but the relationship was reversed in low-HDI countries (+121 (+7.0 to +173) per cent; P <0001). In multivariable models, checklist use was associated with a lower 30-day perioperative mortality (OR 0.60, 0.50 to 073; P <0.001). The greatest absolute benefit was seen for emergency surgery in low- and middle-HDI countries. Conclusion Checklist use in emergency laparotomy was associated with a significantly lower perioperative mortality rate. Checklist use in low-HDI countries was half that in high-HDI countries.Peer reviewe

Global variation in anastomosis and end colostomy formation following left-sided colorectal resection

Background End colostomy rates following colorectal resection vary across institutions in high-income settings, being influenced by patient, disease, surgeon and system factors. This study aimed to assess global variation in end colostomy rates after left-sided colorectal resection. Methods This study comprised an analysis of GlobalSurg-1 and -2 international, prospective, observational cohort studies (2014, 2016), including consecutive adult patients undergoing elective or emergency left-sided colorectal resection within discrete 2-week windows. Countries were grouped into high-, middle- and low-income tertiles according to the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI). Factors associated with colostomy formation versus primary anastomosis were explored using a multilevel, multivariable logistic regression model. Results In total, 1635 patients from 242 hospitals in 57 countries undergoing left-sided colorectal resection were included: 113 (6·9 per cent) from low-HDI, 254 (15·5 per cent) from middle-HDI and 1268 (77·6 per cent) from high-HDI countries. There was a higher proportion of patients with perforated disease (57·5, 40·9 and 35·4 per cent; P < 0·001) and subsequent use of end colostomy (52·2, 24·8 and 18·9 per cent; P < 0·001) in low- compared with middle- and high-HDI settings. The association with colostomy use in low-HDI settings persisted (odds ratio (OR) 3·20, 95 per cent c.i. 1·35 to 7·57; P = 0·008) after risk adjustment for malignant disease (OR 2·34, 1·65 to 3·32; P < 0·001), emergency surgery (OR 4·08, 2·73 to 6·10; P < 0·001), time to operation at least 48 h (OR 1·99, 1·28 to 3·09; P = 0·002) and disease perforation (OR 4·00, 2·81 to 5·69; P < 0·001). Conclusion Global differences existed in the proportion of patients receiving end stomas after left-sided colorectal resection based on income, which went beyond case mix alone

Estimation of bare soil surface temperature from air temperature and soil depth temperature in a tropical station

Soil surface temperature has critical influence on climate, agricultural and hydrological activities since it serves as a good indicator of the energy budget of the earth’s surface. Two empirical models for estimating soil surface temperature from air temperature and soil depth temperature were developed. The coefficient of determination (R2) of soil surface temperature from the air temperature model ranged from 0.92 - 0.99, while the mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) ranged from 0.5 - 2.48 and 0.77 - 2.630C respectively. For the soil depth model, the R2 value ranged from 0.75 - 0.96, MAE ranged between 1.05 and 4.94, while RMSE ranged from 1.28 - 5.25. Both models performed well on days of year (DOYs), under similar prevailing weather conditions during the model training period.Keyword: Air, Soil, temperature, prevailing weather, energy budget, earth surfac