Does specification matter? Experiments with simple multiregional probabilistic population projections

Population projection models that introduce uncertainty are a growing subset of projection models in general. In this paper, we focus on the importance of decisions made with regard to the model specifications adopted. We compare the forecasts and prediction intervals associated with four simple regional population projection models: a total growth rate model, a component model with net migration, a component model with in-migration and outmigration rates, and a multiregional model with destination-specific out-migration rates. Vector autoregressive models are used to forecast future rates of growth, birth, death, net migration, in-migration and out-migration, and destination-specific out-migration for the North, Midlands and South regions in England (additional specification decisions once again come into play). They are also used to forecast different international migration measures. The base data represent a time series of annual data provided by the Office for National Statistics from 1976 to 2008. The results illustrate how both the forecasted subpopulation totals and the corresponding prediction intervals differ for the multiregional model in comparison to other simpler models, as well as for different assumptions about international migration. The paper ends end with a discussion of our results and possible directions for future researc

Improving estimates of migration flows to Eurostat

In this paper we identify the current mandatory requirements and issues concerning the supply of detailed migration data to Eurostat. Using simple illustrations on immigration to the United Kingdom, we show how substantial and significant improvements can be made to the flows reported by the International Passenger Survey, which contain irregularities and missing data due to its relatively small sample size. Our general methodology is based on the idea of smoothing, repairing and combining data within multiplicative component framework

Forecasting environmental migration to the United Kingdom, 2010 - 2060: an exploration using Bayesian models

Over the next fifty years the potential impact on human livelihoods of environmental change could be considerable. One possible response may be increased levels of human mobility. This paper offers a first quantification of the levels of environmental migration to the United Kingdom that might be expected. The authors apply Bijak and Wi?niowski’s (2010) methodology for forecasting migration using Bayesian models. They seek to advance the conceptual understanding of forecasting in three ways. First, the paper is believed to be the first time that the Bayesian modelling approach has been attempted in relation to environmental mobility. Second, the paper examines the plausibility of Bayesian modelling of UK immigration by cross-checking expert responses to a Delphi survey with the expectations about environmental mobility evident in the recent research literature. Third, the values and assumptions of the expert evidence provided in the Delphi survey are interrogated to illustrate the limited set of conditions under which the forecasts of environmental mobility, as set out in this paper, are likely to hold

What do Bayesian methods offer population forecasters?

The Bayesian approach has a number of attractive properties for probabilistic forecasting. In this paper, we apply Bayesian time series models to obtain future population estimates with uncertainty for England and Wales. To account for heterogeneity found in the historical data, we add parameters to represent the stochastic volatility in the error terms. Uncertainty in model choice is incorporated through Bayesian model averaging techniques. The resulting predictive distributions from Bayesian forecasting models have two main advantages over those obtained using traditional stochastic models. Firstly, data and uncertainties in the parameters and model choice are explicitly included using probability distributions. As a result, more realistic probabilistic population forecasts can be obtained. Second, Bayesian models formally allow the incorporation of expert opinion, including uncertainty, into the forecast. Our results are discussed in relation to classical time series methods and existing cohort component projections. This paper demonstrates the flexibility of the Bayesian approach to simple population forecasting and provides insights into further developments of more complicated population models that include, for example, components of demographic change

Integrating Traditional and Social Media Data to Predict Bilateral Migrant Stocks in the European Union

Although up-to-date information on the nature and extent of migration within the European Union (EU) is important for policymaking, timely and reliable statistics on the number of EU citizens residing in or moving across other member states are difficult to obtain. In this paper, we develop a statistical model that integrates data on EU migrant stocks using traditional sources such as census, population registers and Labour Force Survey, with novel data sources, primarily from the Facebook Advertising Platform. Findings suggest that combining different data sources provides near real-time estimates that can serve as early warnings about shifts in EU mobility patterns. Estimated migrant stocks match relatively well to the observed data, despite some overestimation of smaller migrant populations and underestimation for larger migrant populations in Germany and the United Kingdom. In addition, the model estimates missing stocks for migrant corridors and years where no data are available, offering timely now-casted estimates

Intraoperative transesophageal echocardiography during surgery for congenital heart defects

AbstractObjective: This study was undertaken to further define the impact of intraoperative transesophageal echocardiography during surgery for congenital heart disease and to determine appropriate indications. Methods: The impact of transesophageal echocardiography on patient care was assessed in 1002 patients who underwent this procedure during surgery for congenital heart defects. It had major impact when new information altered the planned procedure or led to a revision of the initial repair. The safety of intraoperative transesophageal echocardiography was evaluated by review of the prospective data sheets and the medical record. A simple relative cost analysis was also performed. Results: Patient median age was 9.9 years (range 2 days to 85 years). Transesophageal echocardiography had prebypass or postbypass major impact in 13.8% of cases (n = 138/1002). Major impact was more frequent during reoperations (P <.03). Procedures that benefited most from the additional information were valve repairs (aortic or atrioventricular) and complex outflow tract reconstructions. Partial anomalous pulmonary venous connection, tricuspid valve repair (other than of Ebstein anomaly), simple atrioventricular discordance, aortic arch anomalies, and secundum atrial septal defects had major impact rates less than 5%. No major complications occurred. Minor complications occurred in 1% of patients and were most often observed in infants smaller than 4 kg. Routine use of transesophageal echocardiography for all patients with congenital heart defects proved cost-effective. Conclusions: On the combined basis of the observed rates of major impact, the minimal complications, and the relative cost advantage, we believe that routine use of transesophageal echocardiography during most intracardiac repairs of congenital heart defects is justified, particularly for patients undergoing repeat operations for congenital cardiac malformations.J Thorac Cardiovasc Surg 2002;124:1176-8

Bowling Together: Scientific Collaboration Networks of Demographers at European Population Conferences

Studies of collaborative networks of demographers are relatively scarce. Similar studies in other social sciences provide insight into scholarly trends of both the fields and characteristics of their successful scientists. Exploiting a unique database of metadata for papers presented at six European Population Conferences, this report explores factors explaining research collaboration among demographers. We find that (1) collaboration among demographers has increased over the past 10 years, however, among co-authored papers, collaboration across institutions remains relatively unchanged over the period, (2) papers based on core demographic subfields such as fertility, mortality, migration and data and methods are more likely to involve multiple authors and (3) multiple author teams that are all female are less likely to co-author with colleagues in different institutions. Potential explanations for these results are discussed alongside comparisons with similar studies of collaboration networks in other related social sciences

LSST: from Science Drivers to Reference Design and Anticipated Data Products

(Abridged) We describe here the most ambitious survey currently planned in the optical, the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST). A vast array of science will be enabled by a single wide-deep-fast sky survey, and LSST will have unique survey capability in the faint time domain. The LSST design is driven by four main science themes: probing dark energy and dark matter, taking an inventory of the Solar System, exploring the transient optical sky, and mapping the Milky Way. LSST will be a wide-field ground-based system sited at Cerro Pach\'{o}n in northern Chile. The telescope will have an 8.4 m (6.5 m effective) primary mirror, a 9.6 deg$^2$ field of view, and a 3.2 Gigapixel camera. The standard observing sequence will consist of pairs of 15-second exposures in a given field, with two such visits in each pointing in a given night. With these repeats, the LSST system is capable of imaging about 10,000 square degrees of sky in a single filter in three nights. The typical 5$\sigma$ point-source depth in a single visit in $r$ will be $\sim 24.5$ (AB). The project is in the construction phase and will begin regular survey operations by 2022. The survey area will be contained within 30,000 deg$^2$ with $\delta<+34.5^\circ$, and will be imaged multiple times in six bands, $ugrizy$, covering the wavelength range 320--1050 nm. About 90\% of the observing time will be devoted to a deep-wide-fast survey mode which will uniformly observe a 18,000 deg$^2$ region about 800 times (summed over all six bands) during the anticipated 10 years of operations, and yield a coadded map to $r\sim27.5$. The remaining 10\% of the observing time will be allocated to projects such as a Very Deep and Fast time domain survey. The goal is to make LSST data products, including a relational database of about 32 trillion observations of 40 billion objects, available to the public and scientists around the world.Comment: 57 pages, 32 color figures, version with high-resolution figures available from https://www.lsst.org/overvie

Climate, conflict and forced migration

Despite the lack of robust empirical evidence, a growing number of media reports attempt to link climate change to the ongoing violent conflicts in Syria and other parts of the world, as well as to the migration crisis in Europe. Exploiting bilateral data on asylum seeking applications for 157 countries over the period 2006–2015, we assess the determinants of refugee flows using a gravity model which accounts for endogenous selection in order to examine the causal link between climate, conflict and forced migration. Our results indicate that climatic conditions, by affecting drought severity and the likelihood of armed conflict, played a significant role as an explanatory factor for asylum seeking in the period 2011–2015. The effect of climate on conflict occurrence is particularly relevant for countries in Western Asia in the period 2010–2012 during when many countries were undergoing political transformation. This finding suggests that the impact of climate on conflict and asylum seeking flows is limited to specific time period and contexts