Counter-Terrorist Financing: A Good Policy Going too Far?

'The money trail' of terrorist activity has become a focus of counterterrorist policy. There has been major success in implementing international standards to prevent and detect terrorist financing. Available evidence suggests that these efforts have contributed to a decrease in transnational terrorist activity. In the wake, they are likely to have contributed to a shift from transnational to "home grown" terrorism. Partly because of this change, and partly because of the continuous expansion of counter-terroristfinancing costs have begun to outweigh the costs of additional measures.

Comparison of temperature indices for three IPCC SRES scenarios based on RegCM simulations for Poland in 2011–2030 period

The regional climate model RegCM3 is used to investigate potential future changes of temperature indices in Poland for the period 2011–2030. The model is forced by ECHAM5/MPI-OM GCM data from World Data Centre (WDCC) database for the 1971–1990 reference period and 2011–2030 projection period under SRES B1, A1B and A2 emission scenarios. Model output statistics methods are used to transform simulated minimum and maximum temperature data into realistic data. Selected indices of temperature extremes and their differences between the scenario simulations and the reference were calculated, for all scenarios, for the entire period and for each season. Results show a mean yearly increase in the number of summer and hot days and a decrease in the number of frost and ice days. Highest decline in the number of frost and ice days in autumn and an increase in spring is noticed. An highest increase in the number of summer and hot days is seen in summer. Future projections of these indices are relevant for studies on climate change impact in agriculture, tourism, health, transportation, road and building infrastructure.This work was carried out as part of the project KLIMAT "Impact of climate change on the society, the environment and the economy (changes, effects and ways of limiting them, conclusions for science and engineering practice and economic planning)". No POIG.01.03.01- 14-011/08 in frames of the Operational Programme Innovative Economy, co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund. Authors thank anonymous reviewers for valuable comments

Counter-Terrorist Financing: A Good Policy Going too Far?

'The money trail' of terrorist activity has become a focus of counterterrorist policy. There has been major success in implementing international standards to prevent and detect terrorist financing. Available evidence suggests that these efforts have contributed to a decrease in transnational terrorist activity. In the wake, they are likely to have contributed to a shift from transnational to "home grown" terrorism. Partly because of this change, and partly because of the continuous expansion of counter-terroristfinancing costs have begun to outweigh the costs of additional measures

The Role of Effectiveness and Efficiency in the European Union's Counterterrorism Policy: The Case of Terrorist Financing

European Union policy to counter terrorist financing is marked by uncertainty about causes and consequences. The paper addresses the role of evaluations of the effectiveness and efficiency of counter terrorist financing policies performed by international standard setting organizations in such a policy environment. It is found that assessments of effectiveness have shaped counter terrorist financing, but partially in a way biased towards their extension without strong evidence of their effectiveness. Assessments of the comprehensiveness of a regulatory framework and its implementation have been frequent while evaluations of the impact of activities on terrorist activities are largely lacking. As a result, there is much pressure to expand activities in the field without much knowledge about their impact. Considerations of financial and non-financial costs of counter terrorist financing measures have limited their extension, albeit again rarely based on evidence of their effectiveness. The paper's results confirm the proposition that policies in high risk fields tend to be expansive. Assessment of effectiveness and efficiency emphasizing output and outcome of measures rather than impact play an important role in shaping such expansion

Surveying Immigrants: The Role of Language Attrition and Language Change in the Application of Questionnaires

Quantitative questionnaires are increasingly applied across different languages and cultures. They play an important role in research on immigrant communities as well as in surveys of the general population of which immigrants are a significant part. Because immigrants have often limited proficiency of the language of the host country, usually questionnaires in their first language ("mother tongue") are needed. For this purpose, it is common to use questionnaires developed or adapted for the population of the respective countries which immigrants originate from. The applicability of these questionnaires, however, may be limited because of differences between both populations in terms of language usage, amongst others resulting from language attrition. This, for example, can be illustrated by means of the Revised Illness Perception Questionnaire (IPQ-R) applied to Turks in Turkey and Turkish immigrants residing in Germany. Questionnaires, therefore, must be thoroughly tested and often re-adapted to the language style and level of language proficiency of immigrants to avoid different forms of bias. An analytical framework of questionnaire equivalence can guide the process of testing and re-adaptation

Security Economics in the European Context: Implications of the EUSECON Project

This paper presents key aspects and policy implications of a multi-annual research project on economic analyses of European security issues (EUSECON), with an emphasis on intentional threats of organised crime, piracy and terrorism. The first part argues that rational models can provide significant insights on the emergence and current patterns of terrorism and piracy. These findings could lead to new priorities or to more nuanced interventions in response to these threats. The second part focuses on the direct and indirect costs of both terrorism and organised crime. EUSECON provided new data about the scope of related illegal economic activities and explored the sensitivity of markets, societies and polities in the aftermath of terrorist attacks. It emerges that political actors are at greatest risk of over-responding, whereas mature economies display a high degree of resilience. Finally, the third part discusses economic approaches to policy evaluation. EUSECON clarified the benefits of transnational security cooperation, but also highlights the difficulties of rigorous costeffectiveness and cost-benefit calculations. Therefore, a more evidence-based approach to security policymaking, which is increasingly touted by EU decision-makers, remains elusive. In conclusion, European security policy needs further scrutiny from an economic perspective, in order to answer the increasing complexity of security challenges under the increasing financial or political constraints.

Spectral Properties of the Hata Tree

The Hata tree is the unique self-similar set in the complex plane determined by the contractions φ0(z) = cz and φ1(z) = (1-|c|2)z+|c|2, where c is a complex number such that |c| and |1-c| are in (0,1). There are four main results in the paper. First, by applying linear algebra and spectral theory it is possible to construct a dynamical system that can compute the eigenvalues of the probabilistic Laplacian on graph approximations to the Hata tree. Conclusions are made about the spectrum of the Laplacian on the limiting graphs. Second, the Sabot theory (c.f. [29]) is applied to construct a simpler dynamical system to compute the eigenvalues of a class of normalized graph Laplacians (including the probabilistic Laplacian) on these approximating graphs. Third, it is possible to reconstruct the Hata tree as the union of two copies of a mixed affine nested fractal identified at a point. Using techniques from [13], some results are stated on the spectral asymptotics of the eigenvalue counting function of a certain class of Laplacians (not including the probabilistic Laplacian) on this mixed affine nested fractal. In the final part, a spectral analysis is performed on graph approximations to the Basilica Julia set of the polynomial z2-1. In [5], the authors give a dynamical system that can be used to construct finite approximations and classify the different possible infinite blow-ups. In this paper, the techniques from the first part are used to construct a dynamical system that can compute the eigenvalues of Laplacian operators on these finite graph approximations. In addition, it is shown that the spectrum of the Laplacian on blow-ups satisfying certain conditions is pure point