Optimal leverage from non-ergodicity

In modern portfolio theory, the balancing of expected returns on investments against uncertainties in those returns is aided by the use of utility functions. The Kelly criterion offers another approach, rooted in information theory, that always implies logarithmic utility. The two approaches seem incompatible, too loosely or too tightly constraining investors' risk preferences, from their respective perspectives. The conflict can be understood on the basis that the multiplicative models used in both approaches are non-ergodic which leads to ensemble-average returns differing from time-average returns in single realizations. The classic treatments, from the very beginning of probability theory, use ensemble-averages, whereas the Kelly-result is obtained by considering time-averages. Maximizing the time-average growth rates for an investment defines an optimal leverage, whereas growth rates derived from ensemble-average returns depend linearly on leverage. The latter measure can thus incentivize investors to maximize leverage, which is detrimental to time-average growth and overall market stability. The Sharpe ratio is insensitive to leverage. Its relation to optimal leverage is discussed. A better understanding of the significance of time-irreversibility and non-ergodicity and the resulting bounds on leverage may help policy makers in reshaping financial risk controls.Comment: 17 pages, 3 figures. Updated figures and extended discussion of ergodicit

Probiotics, prematurity and neurodevelopment: Follow-up of a randomised trial

Objective: To determine the impact of one probiotics combination on the neurodevelopment of very preterm children at 2–5 years corrected gestational age (CA). Design: Follow-up study of survivors of a double-blinded, placebo-controlled, randomised trial of probiotic effects on late-onset sepsis in very preterm infants that found reduced necrotising enterocolitis. Setting: 10 tertiary perinatal centres in Australia and New Zealand. Patients: 1099 very preterm infants born <32 weeks’ gestation and weighing <1500 g. Intervention: Probiotics (Bifidobacterium infantis, Streptococcus thermophilus and Bifidobacterium lactis) or placebo administered from birth until discharge home or term CA, whichever came sooner. Main outcome measures: Major neurodevelopmental impairment comprised any of moderate/severe cerebral palsy (Gross Motor Function Classification System score 2–5), motor impairment (Bayley-III Motor Composite Scale <–2SD or Movement Assessment Battery for Children <15th centile if ≫42 months’ CA), cognitive impairment (Bayley-III Composite Cognitive or Language Scales <–2SD or Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence Full Scale Intelligence Quotient <–2SD if ≫42 months’ CA), blindness or deafness. Results: Outcome data were available for 735 (67%) participants, with 71 deaths and 664/1028 survivors assessed at a mean age of 30 months. Survival free of major neurodevelopmental impairment was comparable between groups (probiotics 281 (75.3%) vs placebo 271 (74.9%); relative risk 1.01 (95% CI 0.93 to 1.09)). Rates of deafness were lower in probiotic-treated children (0.6% vs 3.4%). Conclusion: Administration of the probiotics combination Bifidobacterium infantis, Streptococcus thermophilus and Bifidobacterium lactis to very preterm babies from soon after birth until discharge home or term CA did not adversely affect neurodevelopment or behaviour in early childhood

Restrictions in the T-cell repertoire of chronic lymphocytic leukemia: high-throughput immunoprofiling supports selection by shared antigenic elements

Immunoglobulin (IG) gene repertoire restrictions strongly support antigen selection in the pathogenesis of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). Given the emerging multifarious interactions between CLL and bystander T cells, we sought to determine whether antigen(s) are also selecting T cells in CLL. We performed a large-scale, next-generation sequencing (NGS) study of the T-cell repertoire, focusing on major stereotyped subsets representing CLL subgroups with undisputed antigenic drive, but also included patients carrying non-subset IG rearrangements to seek for T-cell immunogenetic signatures ubiquitous in CLL. Considering the inherent limitations of NGS, we deployed bioinformatics algorithms for qualitative curation of T-cell receptor rearrangements, and included multiple types of controls. Overall, we document the clonal architecture of the T-cell repertoire in CLL. These T-cell clones persist and further expand overtime, and can be shared by different patients, most especially patients belonging to the same stereotyped subset. Notably, these shared clonotypes appear to be disease-specific, as they are found in neither public databases nor healthy controls. Altogether, these findings indicate that antigen drive likely underlies T-cell expansions in CLL and may be acting in a CLL subset-specific context. Whether these are the same antigens interacting with the malignant clone or tumor-derived antigens remains to be elucidated

Search for supersymmetric particles in scenarios with a gravitino LSP and stau NLSP

Sleptons, neutralinos and charginos were searched for in the context of scenarios where the lightest supersymmetric particle is the gravitino. It was assumed that the stau is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle. Data collected with the DELPHI detector at a centre-of-mass energy near 189 GeV were analysed combining the methods developed in previous searches at lower energies. No evidence for the production of these supersymmetric particles was found. Hence, limits were derived at 95% confidence level.Comment: 31 pages, 14 figure

Search for CP violation in D+→ϕπ+ and D+s→K0Sπ+ decays

A search for CP violation in D + → ϕπ + decays is performed using data collected in 2011 by the LHCb experiment corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.0 fb−1 at a centre of mass energy of 7 TeV. The CP -violating asymmetry is measured to be (−0.04 ± 0.14 ± 0.14)% for candidates with K − K + mass within 20 MeV/c 2 of the ϕ meson mass. A search for a CP -violating asymmetry that varies across the ϕ mass region of the D + → K − K + π + Dalitz plot is also performed, and no evidence for CP violation is found. In addition, the CP asymmetry in the D+s→K0Sπ+ decay is measured to be (0.61 ± 0.83 ± 0.14)%

Nicotinic acetylcholine receptor subunit variants are associated with blood pressure; findings in the Old Order Amish and replication in the Framingham Heart Study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Systemic blood pressure, influenced by both genetic and environmental factors, is regulated via sympathetic nerve activity. We assessed the role of genetic variation in three subunits of the neuromuscular nicotinic acetylcholine receptor positioned on chromosome 2q, a region showing replicated evidence of linkage to blood pressure.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We sequenced <it>CHRNA1</it>, <it>CHRND </it>and <it>CHRNG </it>in 24 Amish subjects from the Amish Family Diabetes Study (AFDS) and identified 20 variants. We then performed association analysis of non-redundant variants (n = 12) in the complete AFDS cohort of 1,189 individuals, and followed by genotyping blood pressure-associated variants (n = 5) in a replication sample of 1,759 individuals from the Framingham Heart Study (FHS).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The minor allele of a synonymous coding SNP, rs2099489 in <it>CHRNG</it>, was associated with higher systolic blood pressure in both the Amish (p = 0.0009) and FHS populations (p = 0.009) (minor allele frequency = 0.20 in both populations).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p><it>CHRNG </it>is currently thought to be expressed only during fetal development. These findings support the Barker hypothesis, that fetal genotype and intra-uterine environment influence susceptibility to chronic diseases later in life. Additional studies of this variant in other populations, as well as the effect of this variant on acetylcholine receptor expression and function, are needed to further elucidate its potential role in the regulation of blood pressure. This study suggests for the first time in humans, a possible role for genetic variation in the neuromuscular nicotinic acetylcholine receptor, particularly the gamma subunit, in systolic blood pressure regulation.</p

Observing convective aggregation

Convective self-aggregation, the spontaneous organization of initially scattered convection into isolated convective clusters despite spatially homogeneous boundary conditions and forcing, was first recognized and studied in idealized numerical simulations. While there is a rich history of observational work on convective clustering and organization, there have been only a few studies that have analyzed observations to look specifically for processes related to self-aggregation in models. Here we review observational work in both of these categories and motivate the need for more of this work. We acknowledge that self-aggregation may appear to be far-removed from observed convective organization in terms of time scales, initial conditions, initiation processes, and mean state extremes, but we argue that these differences vary greatly across the diverse range of model simulations in the literature and that these comparisons are already offering important insights into real tropical phenomena. Some preliminary new findings are presented, including results showing that a self-aggregation simulation with square geometry has too broad a distribution of humidity and is too dry in the driest regions when compared with radiosonde records from Nauru, while an elongated channel simulation has realistic representations of atmospheric humidity and its variability. We discuss recent work increasing our understanding of how organized convection and climate change may interact, and how model discrepancies related to this question are prompting interest in observational comparisons. We also propose possible future directions for observational work related to convective aggregation, including novel satellite approaches and a ground-based observational network

Symbolic Dynamic Analysis of Relations Between Cardiac and Breathing Cycles in Patients on Weaning Trials

Traditional time-domain techniques of data analysis are often not sufficient to characterize the complex dynamics of the cardiorespiratory interdependencies during the weaning trials. In this paper, the interactions between the heart rate (HR) and the breathing rate (BR) were studied using joint symbolic dynamic analysis. A total of 133 patients on weaning trials from mechanical ventilation were analyzed: 94 patients with successful weaning (group S) and 39 patients that failed to maintain spontaneous breathing (group F). The word distribution matrix enabled a coarse-grained quantitative assessment of short-term nonlinear analysis of the cardiorespiratory interactions. The histogram of the occurrence probability of the cardiorespiratory words presented a higher homogeneity in group F than in group S, measured with a higher number of forbidden words in group S as well as a higher number of words whose probability of occurrence is higher than a probability threshold in group S. The discriminant analysis revealed the best results when applying symbolic dynamic variables. Therefore, we hypothesize that joint symbolic dynamic analysis provides enhanced information about different interactions between HR and BR, when comparing patients with successful weaning and patients that failed to maintain spontaneous breathing in the weaning procedure