Global Models, The Biospheric Approach (Theory of the Noosphere)

The problem of the coevolution of mankind and the biosphere, i.e., the relationship between the process of the evolution of the biosphere and the evolution of human activity which provides a homeostasis for human civilization, has become one of the principal problems of human ecology. The first step in an extensive program of interdisciplinary research is the creation of a system of mathematical models which would serve as a framework for planning international research programs. The research described herein has two stages. The first stage, a still primitive system of models was constructed and analyzed, using systems dynamics techniques. This system of models, outlined in the second section of the paper, has already helped the authors in their contacts with experts in biology, soil science, etc., and the creation of an information base has in essence, turned into a discussion of plans for future work. Studies connected with simulating the evolution of the biosphere were developed in three directions: simulation of processes of a biotic nature, simulation of climate, and simulation of human activity. Experimental results obtained using this system in the "if...then" mode, may be helpful for understanding, at least on a qualitative basis, possible impacts of human activity on the evolution of the biosphere assuming that the present day trends remain unchanged. This system of models is at present programmed at IIASA and is ready to be used for simulation experiments. The second step in the research is based on an understanding of the fact that the systems dynamic approach is not sufficient for the elaboration and study of the system of models which describes human activity. Furthermore, it is necessary to analyze and coordinate models developed by experts in varied branches of science -- biologists, climatologists, economists, etc. Thus, it is necessary to elaborate new mathematical techniques that can be used in the investigation of global coevolution problems. Some principles for the development of these techniques were formulated at the Computing Center of the USSR Academy of Sciences and are presented herein. The three main principles are: (1) Linear parametrization of comprehensive submodels; (2) Models of human activity are split into two levels -- the decision-making level and the technological level -- and a description of the system of models at the technological level only; (3) Analysis and coordination of the system of models by constructing a set of all reachable values of performance indices (The Generalized Reachable Sets Approach). The linear parametrization procedure for a climate model which is essentially the Mintz-Arakawa global atmospheric circulation model as described by Gates et al. (1971) and modified to account for the climatic trends due to the influence of anthropogenic factors, is described in the third section of the paper. The problems of modeling human activity and the main features of the Generalized Reachable Sets approach, as well as the general scheme of analysis of global biospheric models, are presented in the fourth section of the paper. This work, which is now in the early stages, calls for a great deal of scientific effort over a long period of time. The authors anticipate that the importance of the research in this direction will be internationally recognized and supported

Giant Cyclones in Gaseous Discs of Spiral Galaxies

We report detection of giant cyclonic vortices in the gaseous disc of the spiral galaxy NGC 3631 in the reference frame rotating with the spiral pattern. A presence of such structures was predicted by the authors for galaxies, where the radial gradient of the perturbed velocity exceeds that of the rotational velocity. This situation really takes place in NGC 3631.Comment: 13 pages, 4 EPS and 3 PS figure

Inner Polar Rings and Disks: Observed Properties

A list of galaxies with inner regions revealing polar (or strongly inclined to the main galactic plane) disks and rings is compiled from the literature data. The list contains 47 galaxies of all morphological types, from E to Irr. We consider the statistics of the parameters of polar structures known from observations. The radii of the majority of them do not exceed 1.5 kpc. The polar structures are equally common in barred and unbarred galaxies. At the same time, if a galaxy has a bar (or a triaxial bulge), this leads to the polar disk stabilization - its axis of rotation usually coincides with the major axis of the bar. More than two thirds of all considered galaxies reveal one or another sign of recent interaction or merging. This fact indicates a direct relation between the external environment and the presence of an inner polar structure.Comment: 12 pages, 3 figures, accepted to Astrophysical Bulletin. Minor changes and corrections are still possibl

New Structures in Galactic Disks: Predictions and Discoveries

Original paper can be found at http://www.astrosociety.org/pubs/cs/222-252.html--Copyright Astronomical Society of the Pacific --Our main goal is to review: 1) some physical mechanisms which form the observed structures in galactic disks; 2) the discovery of new galactic structures predicted earlier. Specifically in the first part of the paper we discuss some questions associated with spiral structure. The second part is devoted to the prediction and discovery of giant vortices in gaseous disks of the grand design spiral galaxies using method of reconstruction of the full three-component velocity field from the observed line-of-sight velocity field. In the third part, we give some arguments in favour of existence of the slow bars in the grand design spiral galaxies

Constraints on Dark Matter Annihilation in Clusters of Galaxies with the Fermi Large Area Telescope

Nearby clusters and groups of galaxies are potentially bright sources of high-energy gamma-ray emission resulting from the pair-annihilation of dark matter particles. However, no significant gamma-ray emission has been detected so far from clusters in the first 11 months of observations with the Fermi Large Area Telescope. We interpret this non-detection in terms of constraints on dark matter particle properties. In particular for leptonic annihilation final states and particle masses greater than ~200 GeV, gamma-ray emission from inverse Compton scattering of CMB photons is expected to dominate the dark matter annihilation signal from clusters, and our gamma-ray limits exclude large regions of the parameter space that would give a good fit to the recent anomalous Pamela and Fermi-LAT electron-positron measurements. We also present constraints on the annihilation of more standard dark matter candidates, such as the lightest neutralino of supersymmetric models. The constraints are particularly strong when including the fact that clusters are known to contain substructure at least on galaxy scales, increasing the expected gamma-ray flux by a factor of ~5 over a smooth-halo assumption. We also explore the effect of uncertainties in cluster dark matter density profiles, finding a systematic uncertainty in the constraints of roughly a factor of two, but similar overall conclusions. In this work, we focus on deriving limits on dark matter models; a more general consideration of the Fermi-LAT data on clusters and clusters as gamma-ray sources is forthcoming.Comment: accepted to JCAP, Corresponding authors: T.E. Jeltema and S. Profumo, minor revisions to be consistent with accepted versio

Measurement of (anti)deuteron and (anti)proton production in DIS at HERA

The first observation of (anti)deuterons in deep inelastic scattering at HERA has been made with the ZEUS detector at a centre-of-mass energy of 300--318 GeV using an integrated luminosity of 120 pb-1. The measurement was performed in the central rapidity region for transverse momentum per unit of mass in the range 0.3<p_T/M<0.7. The particle rates have been extracted and interpreted in terms of the coalescence model. The (anti)deuteron production yield is smaller than the (anti)proton yield by approximately three orders of magnitude, consistent with the world measurements.Comment: 26 pages, 9 figures, 5 tables, submitted to Nucl. Phys.

Status of the GAMMA-400 Project

The preliminary design of the new space gamma-ray telescope GAMMA-400 for the energy range 100 MeV - 3 TeV is presented. The angular resolution of the instrument, 1-2{\deg} at E{\gamma} ~100 MeV and ~0.01^{\circ} at E{\gamma} > 100 GeV, its energy resolution ~1% at E{\gamma} > 100 GeV, and the proton rejection factor ~10E6 are optimized to address a broad range of science topics, such as search for signatures of dark matter, studies of Galactic and extragalactic gamma-ray sources, Galactic and extragalactic diffuse emission, gamma-ray bursts, as well as high-precision measurements of spectra of cosmic-ray electrons, positrons, and nuclei.Comment: 6 pages, 1 figure, 1 table, submitted to Advances in Space Researc

Albiglutide and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease (Harmony Outcomes): a double-blind, randomised placebo-controlled trial

Background: Glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists differ in chemical structure, duration of action, and in their effects on clinical outcomes. The cardiovascular effects of once-weekly albiglutide in type 2 diabetes are unknown. We aimed to determine the safety and efficacy of albiglutide in preventing cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke. Methods: We did a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial in 610 sites across 28 countries. We randomly assigned patients aged 40 years and older with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease (at a 1:1 ratio) to groups that either received a subcutaneous injection of albiglutide (30–50 mg, based on glycaemic response and tolerability) or of a matched volume of placebo once a week, in addition to their standard care. Investigators used an interactive voice or web response system to obtain treatment assignment, and patients and all study investigators were masked to their treatment allocation. We hypothesised that albiglutide would be non-inferior to placebo for the primary outcome of the first occurrence of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke, which was assessed in the intention-to-treat population. If non-inferiority was confirmed by an upper limit of the 95% CI for a hazard ratio of less than 1·30, closed testing for superiority was prespecified. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02465515. Findings: Patients were screened between July 1, 2015, and Nov 24, 2016. 10 793 patients were screened and 9463 participants were enrolled and randomly assigned to groups: 4731 patients were assigned to receive albiglutide and 4732 patients to receive placebo. On Nov 8, 2017, it was determined that 611 primary endpoints and a median follow-up of at least 1·5 years had accrued, and participants returned for a final visit and discontinuation from study treatment; the last patient visit was on March 12, 2018. These 9463 patients, the intention-to-treat population, were evaluated for a median duration of 1·6 years and were assessed for the primary outcome. The primary composite outcome occurred in 338 (7%) of 4731 patients at an incidence rate of 4·6 events per 100 person-years in the albiglutide group and in 428 (9%) of 4732 patients at an incidence rate of 5·9 events per 100 person-years in the placebo group (hazard ratio 0·78, 95% CI 0·68–0·90), which indicated that albiglutide was superior to placebo (p&lt;0·0001 for non-inferiority; p=0·0006 for superiority). The incidence of acute pancreatitis (ten patients in the albiglutide group and seven patients in the placebo group), pancreatic cancer (six patients in the albiglutide group and five patients in the placebo group), medullary thyroid carcinoma (zero patients in both groups), and other serious adverse events did not differ between the two groups. There were three (&lt;1%) deaths in the placebo group that were assessed by investigators, who were masked to study drug assignment, to be treatment-related and two (&lt;1%) deaths in the albiglutide group. Interpretation: In patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease, albiglutide was superior to placebo with respect to major adverse cardiovascular events. Evidence-based glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists should therefore be considered as part of a comprehensive strategy to reduce the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes. Funding: GlaxoSmithKline

Does the impact of COVID-19 on patients with systemic sclerosis change over time?

ObjectiveThe outcome of patients with COVID-19 improved over the pandemic, including patients with systemic rheumatic diseases. However, data on patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc) are lacking. This study aimed to assess the outcome of patients with both SSc and COVID-19 over several waves.MethodsPatients with both SSc and COVID-19 who were registered in the European Scleroderma Trials and Research group (EUSTAR) were collected between April 2020 and April 2021. Patients were assigned to waves 1, 2, or 3 depending on the date of their COVID-19 diagnosis. Primary endpoints were death, intensive care unit stay, or ventilatory support (severe outcome). Subgroup analyses of patients who were hospitalized or died were conducted. General and SSc-specific characteristics and treatment were compared over the waves. Descriptive statistics and multivariate logistic regression were applied.ResultsA total of 333 patients were included; 57 patients (17%) had a severe outcome, and 30 patients (9%) died. Compared to wave 1, significantly fewer patients with SSc suffered from severe COVID-19 in waves 2 and 3 (28.2% vs 9.8% and 12.7%; P P P = 0.001), and fewer patients died (15.7% vs 5.0% and 7.5%; P = 0.011). Patients were significantly younger, more often men, had less frequent arterial hypertension, and less SSc cardiac involvement over waves 1 to 3. Patients received significantly less medium to high doses of corticosteroids as they did SSc treatment.ConclusionThe outcome of patients with both SSc and COVID-19 improved significantly over time because of intrinsic and extrinsic factors.Pathophysiology and treatment of rheumatic disease