Historic 2005 toxic bloom of Alexandrium fundyense in the western Gulf of Maine : 2. Coupled biophysical numerical modeling

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 113 (2008): C07040, doi:10.1029/2007JC004602.A coupled physical/biological modeling system was used to hindcast a massive Alexandrium fundyense bloom that occurred in the western Gulf of Maine in 2005 and to investigate the relative importance of factors governing the bloom's initiation and development. The coupled system consists of a state-of-the-art, free-surface primitive equation Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) tailored for the Gulf of Maine (GOM) using a multinested configuration, and a population dynamics model for A. fundyense. The system was forced by realistic momentum and buoyancy fluxes, tides, river runoff, observed A. fundyense benthic cyst abundance, and climatological nutrient fields. Extensive comparisons were made between simulated (both physical and biological) fields and in situ observations, revealing that the hindcast model is capable of reproducing the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of the 2005 bloom. Sensitivity experiments were then performed to distinguish the roles of three major factors hypothesized to contribute to the bloom: (1) the high abundance of cysts in western GOM sediments; (2) strong ‘northeaster' storms with prevailing downwelling-favorable winds; and (3) a large amount of fresh water input due to abundant rainfall and heavy snowmelt. Model results suggest the following. (1) The high abundance of cysts in western GOM was the primary factor of the 2005 bloom. (2) Wind-forcing was an important regulator, as episodic bursts of northeast winds caused onshore advection of offshore populations. These downwelling favorable winds accelerated the alongshore flow, resulting in transport of high cell concentrations into Massachusetts Bay. A large regional bloom would still have happened, however, even with normal or typical winds for that period. (3) Anomalously high river runoff in 2005 resulted in stronger buoyant plumes/currents, which facilitated the transport of cell population to the western GOM. While affecting nearshore cell abundance in Massachusetts Bay, the buoyant plumes were confined near to the coast, and had limited impact on the gulf-wide bloom distribution.Research support was provided through the Woods Hole Center for Oceans and Human Health, National Science Foundation (NSF) grant OCE-0430723 and National Institute of Environmental Health Science (NIEHS) grant 1-P50-ES012742-01, ECOHAB program through NSF grant OCE-9808173 and NOAA grant NA96OP0099, and GOMTOX program through NOAA grant NA06NOS4780245

Variational analysis of drifter positions and model outputs for the reconstruction of surface currents in the central Adriatic during fall 2002

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 113 (2008): C04004, doi:10.1029/2007JC004148.In this paper we present an application of a variational method for the reconstruction of the velocity field in a coastal flow in the central Adriatic Sea, using in situ data from surface drifters and outputs from the ROMS circulation model. The variational approach, previously developed and tested for mesoscale open ocean flows, has been improved and adapted to account for inhomogeneities on boundary current dynamics over complex bathymetry and coastline and for weak Lagrangian persistence in coastal flows. The velocity reconstruction is performed using nine drifter trajectories over 45 d, and a hierarchy of indirect tests is introduced to evaluate the results as the real ocean state is not known. For internal consistency and impact of the analysis, three diagnostics characterizing the particle prediction and transport, in terms of residence times in various zones and export rates from the boundary current toward the interior, show that the reconstruction is quite effective. A qualitative comparison with sea color data from the MODIS satellite images shows that the reconstruction significantly improves the description of the boundary current with respect to the ROMS model first guess, capturing its main features and its exchanges with the interior when sampled by the drifters.Four of the authors are supported by the Office of Naval Research, V.T. and A.G. under grants N00014-05-1-0094 and N00014-05-1-0095, P.M.P. under grant N00014-03-1-0291, and S.C. under grant N00014-05-1-0730. CNR-ISMAR activity was partially supported by P.O.R. ‘‘CAINO’’ (Regione Puglia), VECTOR (Italian MIUR) project, and ECOOP (EU project)

Tidal stream energy site assessment via three-dimensional model and measurements

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2012. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier B.V. for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Applied Energy 102 (2013): 510-519, doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2012.08.040.A methodology for assessment of the potential impacts of extraction of energy associated with astronomical tides is described and applied to a site on the Beaufort River in coastal South Carolina, U.S.A. Despite its name, the site features negligible freshwater inputs; like many in the region, it is a tidal estuary that resembles a river. A three-dimensional, numerical, hydrodynamic model was applied for a period exceeding a lunar month, allowing quantification of harmonic constituents of water level and velocity, and comparison to values derived from measurements, recorded at a location within the model domain. The measurement campaign included surveys of bathymetry and velocity fields during ebb and flood portions of a tidal cycle for model validation. Potential far-field impacts of a generic tidal energy conversion device were simulated by introducing an additional drag force in the model to enhance dissipation, resulting in 10-60% dissipation of the pre-existing kinetic power within a flow cross-section. The model reveals e ffects of the dissipation on water levels and velocities in adjacent areas, which are relatively small even at the 60% dissipation level. A method is presented to estimate the optimal vertical location for the energy conversion device and the potential power sacrificed by moving to a di fferent altitude.This work was supported by the U.S.Marine Corps, whose support is gratefully acknowledged

ENSO’s impact on the gap wind regions of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 25 (2012): 3549–3565, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00320.1.The recently released NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) is used to examine the response to ENSO in the northeast tropical Pacific Ocean (NETP) during 1979–2009. The normally cool Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) associated with wind jets through the gaps in the Central American mountains at Tehuantepec, Papagayo, and Panama are substantially warmer (colder) than the surrounding ocean during El Niño (La Niña) events. Ocean dynamics generate the ENSO-related SST anomalies in the gap wind regions as the surface fluxes damp the SSTs anomalies, while the Ekman heat transport is generally in quadrature with the anomalies. The ENSO-driven warming is associated with large-scale deepening of the thermocline; with the cold thermocline water at greater depths during El Niño in the NETP, it is less likely to be vertically mixed to the surface, particularly in the gap wind regions where the thermocline is normally very close to the surface. The thermocline deepening is enhanced to the south of the Costa Rica Dome in the Papagayo region, which contributes to the local ENSO-driven SST anomalies. The NETP thermocline changes are due to coastal Kelvin waves that initiate westward-propagating Rossby waves, and possibly ocean eddies, rather than by local Ekman pumping. These findings were confirmed with regional ocean model experiments: only integrations that included interannually varying ocean boundary conditions were able to simulate the thermocline deepening and localized warming in the NETP during El Niño events; the simulation with variable surface fluxes, but boundary conditions that repeated the seasonal cycle, did not.This research was supported by grants from the NOAA office of Global Programs and the NSF Climate and Global Dynamics Division.2012-11-1

Variability of Iberian upwelling implied by ERA-40 and ERA-Interim reanalyses

The Regional Ocean Modeling System ocean model is used to simulate the decadal evolution of the regional waters in offshore Iberia in response to atmospheric fields given by ECMWF ERA-40 (1961–2001) and ERA-Interim (1989–2008) reanalyses. The simulated sea surface temperature (SST) fields are verified against satellite AVHRR SST, and they are analysed to characterise the variability and trends of coastal upwelling in the region. Opposing trends in upwelling frequency are found at the northern limit, where upwelling has been decreasing in recent decades, and at its southern edge, where there is some evidence of increased upwelling. These results confirm previous observational studies and, more importantly, indicate that observed SST trends are not only due to changes in radiative or atmospheric heat fluxes alone but also due to changes in upwelling dynamics, suggesting that such a process may be relevant in climate change scenarios

Dynamics of Wind Setdown at Suez and the Eastern Nile Delta

BACKGROUND: Wind setdown is the drop in water level caused by wind stress acting on the surface of a body of water for an extended period of time. As the wind blows, water recedes from the upwind shore and exposes terrain that was formerly underwater. Previous researchers have suggested wind setdown as a possible hydrodynamic explanation for Moses crossing the Red Sea, as described in Exodus 14. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: This study analyzes the hydrodynamic mechanism proposed by earlier studies, focusing on the time needed to reach a steady-state solution. In addition, the authors investigate a site in the eastern Nile delta, where the ancient Pelusiac branch of the Nile once flowed into a coastal lagoon then known as the Lake of Tanis. We conduct a satellite and modeling survey to analyze this location, using geological evidence of the ancient bathymetry and a historical description of a strong wind event in 1882. A suite of model experiments are performed to demonstrate a new hydrodynamic mechanism that can cause an angular body of water to divide under wind stress, and to test the behavior of our study location and reconstructed topography. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Under a uniform 28 m/s easterly wind forcing in the reconstructed model basin, the ocean model produces an area of exposed mud flats where the river mouth opens into the lake. This land bridge is 3-4 km long and 5 km wide, and it remains open for 4 hours. Model results indicate that navigation in shallow-water harbors can be significantly curtailed by wind setdown when strong winds blow offshore

Do submesoscale frontal processes ventilate the oxygen minimum zone off Peru?

The Peruvian upwelling system encompasses the most intense and shallowest oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) in the ocean. This system shows pronounced submesoscale activity like filaments and fronts. We carried out glider-based observations off Peru during austral summer 2013 to investigate whether submesoscale frontal processes ventilate the Peruvian OMZ. We present observational evidence for the subduction of highly oxygenated surface water in a submesoscale cold filament. The subduction event ventilates the oxycline but does not reach OMZ core waters. In a regional submesoscale-permitting model we study the pathways of newly upwelled water. About 50% of upwelled virtual floats are subducted below the mixed layer within 5 days emphasizing a hitherto unrecognized importance of subduction for the ventilation of the Peruvian oxycline

Decadal-timescale estuarine geomorphic change under future scenarios of climate and sediment supply

© The Authors, 2009. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial License. The definitive version was published in Estuaries and Coasts 33 (2010): 15-29, doi:10.1007/s12237-009-9244-y.Future estuarine geomorphic change, in response to climate change, sea-level rise, and watershed sediment supply, may govern ecological function, navigation, and water quality. We estimated geomorphic changes in Suisun Bay, CA, under four scenarios using a tidal-timescale hydrodynamic/sediment transport model. Computational expense and data needs were reduced using the morphological hydrograph concept and the morphological acceleration factor. The four scenarios included (1) present-day conditions; (2) sea-level rise and freshwater flow changes of 2030; (3) sea-level rise and decreased watershed sediment supply of 2030; and (4) sea-level rise, freshwater flow changes, and decreased watershed sediment supply of 2030. Sea-level rise increased water levels thereby reducing wave-induced bottom shear stress and sediment redistribution during the wind-wave season. Decreased watershed sediment supply reduced net deposition within the estuary, while minor changes in freshwater flow timing and magnitude induced the smallest overall effect. In all future scenarios, net deposition in the entire estuary and in the shallowest areas did not keep pace with sea-level rise, suggesting that intertidal and wetland areas may struggle to maintain elevation. Tidal-timescale simulations using future conditions were also used to infer changes in optical depth: though sea-level rise acts to decrease mean light irradiance, decreased suspended-sediment concentrations increase irradiance, yielding small changes in optical depth. The modeling results also assisted with the development of a dimensionless estuarine geomorphic number representing the ratio of potential sediment import forces to sediment export forces; we found the number to be linearly related to relative geomorphic change in Suisun Bay. The methods implemented here are widely applicable to evaluating future scenarios of estuarine change over decadal timescales.This study was supported by the US Geological Survey’s Priority Ecosystems Science program, CALFED Bay/ Delta Program, and the University of California Center for Water Resources