436 research outputs found

    An ecological time-series study of heat-related mortality in three European cities

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    BACKGROUND: Europe has experienced warmer summers in the past two decades and there is a need to describe the determinants of heat-related mortality to better inform public health activities during hot weather. We investigated the effect of high temperatures on daily mortality in three cities in Europe (Budapest, London, and Milan), using a standard approach. METHODS: An ecological time-series study of daily mortality was conducted in three cities using Poisson generalized linear models allowing for over-dispersion. Secular trends in mortality and seasonal confounding factors were controlled for using cubic smoothing splines of time. Heat exposure was modelled using average values of the temperature measure on the same day as death (lag 0) and the day before (lag 1). The heat effect was quantified assuming a linear increase in risk above a cut-point for each city. Socio-economic status indicators and census data were linked with mortality data for stratified analyses. RESULTS: The risk of heat-related death increased with age, and females had a greater risk than males in age groups > or =65 years in London and Milan. The relative risks of mortality (per degrees C) above the heat cut-point by gender and age were: (i) Male 1.10 (95%CI: 1.07-1.12) and Female 1.07 (1.05-1.10) for 75-84 years, (ii) M 1.10 (1.06-1.14) and F 1.08 (1.06-1.11) for > or = or =85 years in Budapest (> or =24 degrees C); (i) M 1.03 (1.01-1.04) and F 1.07 (1.05-1.09), (ii) M 1.05 (1.03-1.07) and F 1.08 (1.07-1.10) in London (> or =20 degrees C); and (i) M 1.08 (1.03-1.14) and F 1.20 (1.15-1.26), (ii) M 1.18 (1.11-1.26) and F 1.19 (1.15-1.24) in Milan (> or =26 degrees C). Mortality from external causes increases at higher temperatures as well as that from respiratory and cardiovascular disease. There was no clear evidence of effect modification by socio-economic status in either Budapest or London, but there was a seemingly higher risk for affluent non-elderly adults in Milan. CONCLUSION: We found broadly consistent determinants (age, gender, and cause of death) of heat related mortality in three European cities using a standard approach. Our results are consistent with previous evidence for individual determinants, and also confirm the lack of a strong socio-economic gradient in heat health effects currently in Europe

    Impact of daily artificial gravity on autonomic cardiovascular control following 60-day head-down tilt bed rest

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    Impaired cardiovascular autonomic control following space flight or immobilization may limit the ability to cope with additional hemodynamic stimuli. Head-down tilt bedrest is an established terrestrial analog for space flight and offers the opportunity to test potential countermeasures for autonomic cardiovascular deconditioning. Previous studies revealed a possible benefit of daily artificial gravity on cardiovascular autonomic control following head-down tilt bedrest, but there is a need for efficiency in a long-term study before an artificial gravity facility would be brought to space. We hypothesized that artificial gravity through short-arm centrifugation attenuates functional adaptions of autonomic function during head-down tilt bed rest. 24 healthy persons (8 women, 33.4 ± 9.3 years, 24.3 ± 2.1 kg/m²) participated in the 60-day head-down tilt bed rest (AGBRESA) study. They were assigned to three groups, 30 min/day continuous, or 6(5 min intermittent short-arm centrifugation, or a control group. We assessed autonomic cardiovascular control in the supine position and in 5 minutes 80° head-up tilt position before and immediately after bed rest. We computed heart rate variability (HRV) in the time (rmssd) and frequency domain, blood pressure variability, and baroreflex sensitivity (BRS). RR interval corrected rmssd was reduced supine (p = 0.0358) and during HUT (p = 0.0161). Heart rate variability in the high-frequency band (hf-RRI; p = 0.0004) and BRS (p < 0.0001) decreased, whereas blood pressure variability in the low-frequency band (lf-SBP, p = 0.0008) increased following bedrest in all groups. We did not detect significant interactions between bedrest and interventions. We conclude that up to daily 30 min of artificial gravity on a short-arm centrifuge with 1Gz at the center of mass do not suffice to prevent changes in autonomic cardiovascular control following 60-day of 6° head-down tilt bed res

    Effects of daily artificial gravity training on orthostatic tolerance following 60-day strict head-down tilt bedrest

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    Purpose: Orthostatic intolerance commonly occurs following immobilization or space flight. We hypothesized that daily artificial gravity training through short-arm centrifugation could help to maintain orthostatic tolerance following head-down tilt bedrest, which is an established terrestrial model for weightlessness. Methods: We studied 24 healthy persons (eight women; age 33.3 ± 9.0 years; BMI 24.3 ± 2.1 kg/m²) who participated in the 60-days head-down tilt bedrest (AGBRESA) study. They were assigned to 30 min/day continuous or 6 × 5 min intermittent short-arm centrifugation with 1Gz at the center of mass or a control group. We performed head-up tilt testing with incremental lower-body negative pressure until presyncope before and after bedrest. We recorded an electrocardiogram, beat-to-beat finger blood pressure, and brachial blood pressure and obtained blood samples from an antecubital venous catheter. Orthostatic tolerance was defined as time to presyncope. We related changes in orthostatic tolerance to changes in plasma volume determined by carbon dioxide rebreathing. Results: Compared with baseline measurements, supine and upright heart rate increased in all three groups following head-down tilt bedrest. Compared with baseline measurements, time to presyncope decreased by 323 ± 235 s with continuous centrifugation, by 296 ± 508 s with intermittent centrifugation, and by 801 ± 354 s in the control group (p = 0.0249 between interventions). The change in orthostatic tolerance was not correlated with changes in plasma volume. Conclusions: Daily artificial gravity training on a short-arm centrifuge attenuated the reduction in orthostatic tolerance after 60 days of head-down tilt bedrest

    The state of the Martian climate

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    60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes

    Time-calibrated phylogenetic trees establish a lag between polyploidisation and diversification in Nicotiana (Solanaceae)

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    We investigate the timing of diversification in allopolyploids of Nicotiana (Solanaceae) utilising sequence data of maternal and paternal origin to look for evidence of a lag phase during which diploidisation took place. Bayesian relaxed clock phylogenetic methods show recent allopolyploids are a result of several unique polyploidisation events, and older allopolyploid sections have undergone subsequent speciation at the polyploid level (i.e. a number of these polyploid species share a singular origin). The independently formed recent polyploid species in the genus all have mean age estimates below 1 million years ago (Ma). Nicotiana  section Polydicliae (two species) evolved 1.5 Ma, N. section Repandae (four species) formed 4 Ma, and N. section Suaveolentes (*35 species) is about 6 million years old. A general trend of higher speciation rates in older polyploids is evident, but diversification dramatically increases at approximately 6 Ma (in section Suaveolentes). Nicotiana sect. Suaveolentes has spectacularly radiated to form 35 species in Australia and some Pacific islands following a lag phase of almost 6 million years. Species have filled new ecological niches and undergone extensive diploidisation (e.g. chromosome fusions bringing the ancestral allotetraploid number, n = 24, down to n = 15 and ribosomal loci numbers back to diploid condition). Considering the progenitors of Suaveolentes inhabit South America, this represents the colonisation of Australia by polyploids that have subsequently undergone a recent radiation into new environments. To our knowledge, this study is the first report of a substantial lag phase being investigated below the family level

    On conditional skewness with applications to environmental data

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    The statistical literature contains many univariate and multivariate skewness measures that allow two datasets to be compared, some of which are defined in terms of quantile values. In most situations, the comparison between two random vectors focuses on univariate comparisons of conditional random variables truncated in quantiles; this kind of comparison is of particular interest in the environmental sciences. In this work, we describe a new approach to comparing skewness in terms of the univariate convex transform ordering proposed by van Zwet (Convex transformations of random variables. Mathematical Centre Tracts, Amsterdam, 1964), associated with skewness as well as concentration. The key to these comparisons is the underlying dependence structure of the random vectors. Below we describe graphical tools and use several examples to illustrate these comparisons.The research of Félix Belzunce, Julio Mulero and José María Ruíz is partially funded by the Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (Spain) under Grant MTM2012-34023-FEDER. Alfonso Suárez-Llorens acknowledges support received from the Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (Spain) under Grant MTM2014-57559-P
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