The Numerical Simulation and Experiment of Typhoon Wave and Cold Wave in Taiwan Strait

本文运用第三代近岸海浪模式SWAN对三场台风在三种不同台风模型风场下引起的台风浪进行数值模拟；通过两个数值实验得到台风中心分别停留在福建沿岸或台湾岛中部时，台风浪有效波高的分布规律；利用经实测资料校正的卫星遥感数据模拟2013年初2次寒潮浪。 运用SWAN对0813号“森拉克”、0815号“蔷薇”和0908号“莫拉克”三场台风的台风浪数值模拟结果显示：用“台湾海峡台风风场模型（陈德文，2006）”计算的有效波高与实测的有效波高符合最好，三场台风浪有效波高的平均绝对误差为0.65m，其中灾害性海浪峰值的平均绝对误差为0.16m，说明该模拟方案对台风浪尤其是灾害性台风浪的模拟是成功的。进而运用该...The third generation wave model SWAN was applied to simulate 3 typhoon waves in Taiwan Strait driven by different typhoon wind models. Then the distribution of typhoon wave was simulated when typhoon stayed in the Fujian coast or the middle of Taiwan Island. Two cold waves early in 2013 was also simulated using remote sensing wind which is corrected by the buoy measured wind. The simulation of ty...学位：理学硕士院系专业：海洋与环境学院_物理海洋学学号：2242010115135

Typhoon Wind Field Model Based on the Radii of Wind Circle

首先用JElESnIAnSkI台风风场模型及美国联合台风警报中心(JTWC)整编的台风资料,计算10级和7级风圈半径,并与气象部门的发布值相比,发现两者存在较大误差.进而,在JElESnIAnSkI台风风场模型的基础上,提出一种基于最大风速半径、10级和7级风圈半径的台风风场模型,并比较两种台风风场模型的风速剖面.结果表明:该模型比包括被广泛应用的JElESnIAnSkI台风风场模型在内的前人提出的台风风场模型都更接近台风风场实况,其中10级和7级风圈半径与气象部门的发布值是一致的.The wind radii of level ten and level seven were calculated by Jelesnianski typhoon wind field model with typhoon data from Joint Typhoon Warning Center(JTWC).The error was considerable when compared to the release value of meteorological department.Thus a new typhoon wind filed model,which was based on the radii of maximum、level ten and level seven wind speed was proposed referring to Jelesnianski model.Then the wind profiles of the two models were compared.The result showed that the typhoon wind field calculated by the new model was more closer to reality than by any other models include the Jelesnianski model,which was popular used.And the wind radii of level ten and level seven in the new model were the same to the release value of meteorological department.海洋公益性行业科研专项(200905013-7

The Simulation of Typhoon Waves in Taiwan Strait

采用第3代海浪模式SWAn(SIMulATIOn WAVES nEArSHOrE),在考虑了波浪折射、底摩擦、破碎、白浪、风能输入、非线性波波相互作用等物理过程的基础上,分别应用JElESnIAnSkI模型风场、藤田气压公式计算的梯度风场以及考虑台湾海峡和台湾岛地形影响的台风风场(陈德文台风风场)模型,数值模拟了0813号“森拉克“、0815号“蔷薇“和0908号“莫拉克“3场台风过程在台湾海峡产生的台风浪,并与浮标观测结果对比.结果表明,陈德文台风风场模型数值模拟的台风浪结果与实测符合较好,其中模拟结果的有效波高平均绝对误差为0.55M,有效波高峰值平均绝对误差为0.19M,说明其对台风浪的模拟尤其是灾害性台风浪的模拟是成功的.The third generation wave model SWAN(simulation waves nearshore)was applied to simulate the typhoon waves in Taiwan Strait,during the 0813 "Sinlaku",the 0815 "Jangmi",and the 0908 " Morakot".The model considered wave refraction,bottom friction,wave breaking,whitecapping,wind input,and nonlinear wave-wave interactions.Three kinds of wind models,Jelesnianski wind model,Fujita wind model,and the wind model that considered the Taiwan Strait and Taiwan′s topographic effects(Chen De Wen typhoon wind model),were adopted to derive the input wind velocities for SWAN wave model respectively.Compared with the buoy data,the significant wave height driven by Chen typhoon wind model showed relatively high consistence,with the mean absolute error of significant wave height and the peak significant wave height of 0.55mand 0.19mrespectively.This indicated that the simulation of typhoon waves in this study was successful.海洋公益性行业科研专项(200905013-7

树轮记录的吉尔吉斯斯坦东部过去百年干湿变化/Changes of wet and dry in the past hundred years in eastern Kyrgyzstan by tree-ring[J]

利用吉尔吉斯斯坦东部chon-kyzyl-suu附近的两个树轮宽度年表,与CRU气温、降水资料和PDSI资料进行相关分析和响应分析,重建该地区过去百年的降水和PDSI,分析近百年吉尔吉斯斯坦东部干湿变化特征.结果表明:(1)该地区树轮宽度对降水和PDSI响应较好,利用树轮宽度年表可以较好地重建该地区过去百年上年7月到当年6月的降水和PDSI序列;(2)近百年该地区干湿变化具有明显的6a、13a和21a左右的变化准周期;在1913年前后、1943年前后和1972年前后发生了由多到少的气候突变,在1950年前后发生了由少到多的气候突变;(3)吉尔吉斯斯坦东部过去百年干湿变化与中国境内天山山区降水变化一致:1890s偏干,1900s是最为湿润的10a,1910s是最为干旱的1Oa,1917年是近百年来最干旱的1a,1920s-1930s偏湿,1940s偏于,1950s-1960s偏湿,1970s偏干,1980s-2000s偏湿,尤其是1980年以后到现在,天山山区经历了近百年最为漫长的增湿期;重建的近百年吉尔吉斯斯坦东部干湿变化能较好的代表西天山大部分区域尤其是西天山北坡吉尔吉斯斯坦境内的干湿变化

Aripiprazole versus other atypical antipsychotics for schizophrenia

BACKGROUND: In most western industrialised countries, second generation (atypical) antipsychotics are recommended as first line drug treatments for people with schizophrenia. In this review we specifically examine how the efficacy and tolerability of one such agent - aripiprazole - differs from that of other comparable second generation antipsychotics. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effects of aripiprazole compared with other atypical antipsychotics for people with schizophrenia and schizophrenia-like psychoses. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Schizophrenia Group Trials Register (November 2011), inspected references of all identified studies for further trials, and contacted relevant pharmaceutical companies, drug approval agencies and authors of trials for additional information. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included all randomised clinical trials (RCTs) comparing aripiprazole (oral) with oral and parenteral forms of amisulpride, clozapine, olanzapine, quetiapine, risperidone, sertindole, ziprasidone or zotepine for people with schizophrenia or schizophrenia-like psychoses. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We extracted data independently. For dichotomous data we calculated risk ratios (RR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) on an intention-to-treat basis based on a random-effects model. Where possible, we calculated illustrative comparative risks for primary outcomes. For continuous data, we calculated mean differences (MD), again based on a random-effects model. We assessed risk of bias for each included study. MAIN RESULTS: We included 12 trials involving 6389 patients. Aripiprazole was compared to olanzapine, risperidone and ziprasidone. All trials were sponsored by an interested drug manufacturer. The overall number of participants leaving studies early was 30% to 40%, limiting validity (no differences between groups).When compared with olanzapine no differences were apparent for global state (no clinically important change: n = 703, 1 RCT, RR short-term 1.00 95% CI 0.81 to 1.22; n = 317, 1 RCT, RR medium-term 1.08 95% CI 0.95 to 1.22) but mental state tended to favour olanzapine (n = 1360, 3 RCTs, MD total Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) 4.68 95% CI 2.21 to 7.16). There was no significant difference in extrapyramidal symptoms (n = 529, 2 RCTs, RR 0.99 95% CI 0.62 to 1.59) but fewer in the aripiprazole group had increased cholesterol levels (n = 223, 1 RCT, RR 0.32 95% CI 0.19 to 0.54) or weight gain of 7% or more of total body weight (n = 1095, 3 RCTs, RR 0.39 95% CI 0.28 to 0.54).When compared with risperidone, aripiprazole showed no advantage in terms of global state (n = 384, 2 RCTs, RR no important improvement 1.14 95% CI 0.81 to 1.60) or mental state (n = 372, 2 RCTs, MD total PANSS 1.50 95% CI -2.96 to 5.96).One study compared aripiprazole with ziprasidone (n = 247) and both the groups reported similar change in the global state (n = 247, 1 RCT, MD average change in Clinical Global Impression-Severity (CGI-S) score -0.03 95% CI -0.28 to 0.22) and mental state (n = 247, 1 RCT, MD change PANSS -3.00 95% CI -7.29 to 1.29).When compared with any one of several new generation antipsychotic drugs the aripiprazole group showed improvement in global state in energy (n = 523, 1 RCT, RR 0.69 95% CI 0.56 to 0.84), mood (n = 523, 1 RCT, RR 0.77 95% CI 0.65 to 0.92), negative symptoms (n = 523, 1 RCT, RR 0.82 95% CI 0.68 to 0.99), somnolence (n = 523, 1 RCT, RR 0.80 95% CI 0.69 to 0.93) and weight gain (n = 523, 1 RCT, RR 0.84 95% CI 0.76 to 0.94). Significantly more people given aripiprazole reported symptoms of nausea (n = 2881, 3 RCTs, RR 3.13 95% CI 2.12 to 4.61) but weight gain (7% or more of total body weight) was less common in people allocated aripiprazole (n = 330, 1 RCT, RR 0.35 95% CI 0.19 to 0.64). Aripiprazole may have value in aggression but data are limited. This will be the focus of another review. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Information on all comparisons are of limited quality, are incomplete and problematic to apply clinically. Aripiprazole is an antipsychotic drug with a variant but not absent adverse effect profile. Long-term data are sparse and there is considerable scope for another update of this review as new data emerges from the many Chinese studies as well as from ongoing larger, independent pragmatic trials

Determination of the number of ψ(3686) events taken at BESIII

The number of ψ(3686) events collected by the BESIII detector during the 2021 run period is determined to be (2259.3±11.1)×106 by counting inclusive ψ(3686) hadronic events. The uncertainty is systematic and the statistical uncertainty is negligible. Meanwhile, the numbers of ψ(3686) events collected during the 2009 and 2012 run periods are updated to be (107.7±0.6)×106 and (345.4±2.6)×106, respectively. Both numbers are consistent with the previous measurements within one standard deviation. The total number of ψ(3686) events in the three data samples is (2712.4±14.3)×10^

Prediction of Energy Resolution in the JUNO Experiment

International audienceThis paper presents the energy resolution study in the JUNO experiment, incorporating the latest knowledge acquired during the detector construction phase. The determination of neutrino mass ordering in JUNO requires an exceptional energy resolution better than 3% at 1 MeV. To achieve this ambitious goal, significant efforts have been undertaken in the design and production of the key components of the JUNO detector. Various factors affecting the detection of inverse beta decay signals have an impact on the energy resolution, extending beyond the statistical fluctuations of the detected number of photons, such as the properties of liquid scintillator, performance of photomultiplier tubes, and the energy reconstruction algorithm. To account for these effects, a full JUNO simulation and reconstruction approach is employed. This enables the modeling of all relevant effects and the evaluation of associated inputs to accurately estimate the energy resolution. The study reveals an energy resolution of 2.95% at 1 MeV. Furthermore, the study assesses the contribution of major effects to the overall energy resolution budget. This analysis serves as a reference for interpreting future measurements of energy resolution during JUNO data taking. Moreover, it provides a guideline in comprehending the energy resolution characteristics of liquid scintillator-based detectors

JUNO Sensitivity on Proton Decay p→νˉK+p\to \bar\nu K^+ Searches

The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) is a large liquid scintillator detector designed to explore many topics in fundamental physics. In this paper, the potential on searching for proton decay in $p\to \bar\nu K^+$ mode with JUNO is investigated.The kaon and its decay particles feature a clear three-fold coincidence signature that results in a high efficiency for identification. Moreover, the excellent energy resolution of JUNO permits to suppress the sizable background caused by other delayed signals. Based on these advantages, the detection efficiency for the proton decay via $p\to \bar\nu K^+$ is 36.9% with a background level of 0.2 events after 10 years of data taking. The estimated sensitivity based on 200 kton-years exposure is $9.6 \times 10^{33}$ years, competitive with the current best limits on the proton lifetime in this channel