Analysis of Decision Support Systems of Industrial Relevance: Application Potential of Fuzzy and Grey Set Theories

The present work articulates few case empirical studies on decision making in industrial context. Development of variety of Decision Support System (DSS) under uncertainty and vague information is attempted herein. The study emphases on five important decision making domains where effective decision making may surely enhance overall performance of the organization. The focused territories of this work are i) robot selection, ii) g-resilient supplier selection, iii) third party logistics (3PL) service provider selection, iv) assessment of supply chain’s g-resilient index and v) risk assessment in e-commerce exercises. Firstly, decision support systems in relation to robot selection are conceptualized through adaptation to fuzzy set theory in integration with TODIM and PROMETHEE approach, Grey set theory is also found useful in this regard; and is combined with TODIM approach to identify the best robot alternative. In this work, an attempt is also made to tackle subjective (qualitative) and objective (quantitative) evaluation information simultaneously, towards effective decision making. Supplier selection is a key strategic concern for the large-scale organizations. In view of this, a novel decision support framework is proposed to address g-resilient (green and resilient) supplier selection issues. Green capability of suppliers’ ensures the pollution free operation; while, resiliency deals with unexpected system disruptions. A comparative analysis of the results is also carried out by applying well-known decision making approaches like Fuzzy- TOPSIS and Fuzzy-VIKOR. In relation to 3PL service provider selection, this dissertation proposes a novel ‘Dominance- Based’ model in combination with grey set theory to deal with 3PL provider selection, considering linguistic preferences of the Decision-Makers (DMs). An empirical case study is articulated to demonstrate application potential of the proposed model. The results, obtained thereof, have been compared to that of grey-TOPSIS approach. Another part of this dissertation is to provide an integrated framework in order to assess gresilient (ecosilient) performance of the supply chain of a case automotive company. The overall g-resilient supply chain performance is determined by computing a unique ecosilient (g-resilient) index. The concepts of Fuzzy Performance Importance Index (FPII) along with Degree of Similarity (DOS) (obtained from fuzzy set theory) are applied to rank different gresilient criteria in accordance to their current status of performance. The study is further extended to analyze, and thereby, to mitigate various risk factors (risk sources) involved in e-commerce exercises. A total forty eight major e-commerce risks are recognized and evaluated in a decision making perspective by utilizing the knowledge acquired from the fuzzy set theory. Risk is evaluated as a product of two risk quantifying parameters viz. (i) Likelihood of occurrence and, (ii) Impact. Aforesaid two risk quantifying parameters are assessed in a subjective manner (linguistic human judgment), rather than exploring probabilistic approach of risk analysis. The ‘crisp risk extent’ corresponding to various risk factors are figured out through the proposed fuzzy risk analysis approach. The risk factor possessing high ‘crisp risk extent’ score is said be more critical for the current problem context (toward e-commerce success). Risks are now categorized into different levels of severity (adverse consequences) (i.e. negligible, minor, marginal, critical and catastrophic). Amongst forty eight risk sources, top five risk sources which are supposed to adversely affect the company’s e-commerce performance are recognized through such categorization. The overall risk extent is determined by aggregating individual risks (under ‘critical’ level of severity) using Fuzzy Inference System (FIS). Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) is then used to obtain structural relationship amongst aforementioned five risk sources. An appropriate action requirement plan is also suggested, to control and minimize risks associated with e-commerce exercises

A methodological integrated approach to analyse climate change effects in agri-food sector: The TIMES water-energy-food module

The European Union’s 2030 climate and energy policy and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development underline the commitment to mitigate climate change and reduce its impacts by supporting sustainable use of resources. This commitment has become stricter in light of the ambitious climate neutrality target set by the European Green Deal for 2050. Water, Energy and Food are the key variables of the “Nexus Thinking” which face the sustainability challenge with a multi-sectoral approach. The aim of the paper is to show the methodological path toward the implementation of an integrated modeling platform based on the Nexus approach and consolidated energy system analysis methods to represent the agri-food system in a circular economy perspective (from the use of water, energy, biomass, and land to food production). The final aim is to support decision-making connected to climate change mitigation. The IEA-The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) model generator was used to build up the Basilicata Water, Energy and Food model (TIMES-WEF model), which allows users a comprehensive evaluation of the impacts of climate change on the Basilicata agri-food system in terms of land use, yields and water availability and a critical comparison of these indicators in different scenarios. The paper focuses on the construction of the model’s Reference Energy and Material System of the TIMES model, which integrates water and agricultural commodities into the energy framework, and on the results obtained through the calibration of the model β version to statistical data on agricultural activities.publishersversionpublishe

The South African Regulatory System: Past, Present, and Future

The drive for improved regulatory systems and the establishment of a more effective regulatory framework in South Africa has been evident for the past two decades but despite political intentions and legislative revisions success has been limited to date. Efforts to address the increasing volume of applications that have been received have to date failed and resources have been stretched to capacity resulting in the development of a significant backlog and extended timelines for product registration. The promulgation of the recently amended Medicines and Related Substance Act of 1965 triggered the establishment of the South African Health Products Regulatory Authority (SAHPRA) as a separate juristic person outside of the National Department of Health to replace the former medicine regulatory authority the Medicines Control Council (MCC). The aim of this review is to provide the historical context supporting the new regulatory environment in South Africa and the transition from the MCC to SAHPRA. Key recommendations to SAHPRA to ensure the full potential of the new regulatory environment in South Africa include: establishing a quality management system to safeguard accountability, consistency and transparency and to streamline the implementation of good review practices including quality decisionmaking practices and benefit-risk assessment; the measurement and monitoring of regulatory performance, targets for overall approval time and key review milestones to instill a culture of accurate metrics collection and measurement of key performance indicators and their continuous improvement and the employment of a risk-based approach to the evaluation of medical products and codify the use of facilitated regulatory pathways in policy and culture. The application of a risk-based approach to regulatory review commensurate with a product’s risk to patients will facilitate the application of increased resources for pharmacovigilance activities and to support the reliance and recognition of reference agencies.Peer reviewe

Information technology and urban green analysis

It is well recognized that green area plays a pivotal role in improving urban environment, such as preserving water and soil, controlling temperature and humidity of air, preventing pollution, flood prevention, functioning as buffers between incompatible land uses, preserving natural habitat, and providing space for recreation and relaxation. However, due to pressures from new development both in urban fringes and urban centres, urban green and open spaces are seen to be rapidly declining in term of allocated spaces and quality. Without careful urban land use planning, many open spaces will be filled with residential and commercial buildings. Therefore, there is a need for proper planning control to ensure that the provisions of green spaces are adequately being conserved for current and future generations. The need for an urban green information system is particularly important for strategic planning at macro level and local planning at the micro level. The advent of information technology has created an opportunity for the development of new approaches in preserving and monitoring the development of urban green and open spaces. This paper will discuss the use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) incorporated with other data sources such as remote sensing images and aerial photographs in providing innovative and alternative solutions in the management and monitoring of urban green. GIS is widely accepted in urban landscape planning as it can provide better understanding on the spatial pattern and changes of land use in an area. This paper will primarily focus on digital database that are developed to assist in monitoring urban green and open spaces at regional and local context. The application of GIS in the Klang Valley region or better known as AGISwlk developed since mid-1990's is currently being used by various organisations in the region. The focus of AGISwlk is not merely in providing relevant database to its stakeholders but more importantly, assist in making specific and relevant decisions with regard to spatial planning. It is also used to monitor the loss of green areas by using several temporal data sets. The method of classifying green and open spaces in the region is also being discussed. This paper demonstrates that GIS can be an effective tool in preserving and monitoring green and open spaces in an urban area. The contribution of urban green digital database in someway may leads toward landscape sustainability as to satisfy the ever changing society

Evaluating Ecosystem Investments

This report focuses on what was learned about best practices for evaluating the effects of ecosystem investments along with examples of how others are using these practicesin their work.MethodologyThree research questions guided this engagement:What are the new / best practices in evaluating the effects of ecosystem invest­ments?Which organizations are evaluating these investments well? What can they teach us?What relevant outcomes and indicators could Omidyar Network use to evaluate its ecosystem investments?To answer these questions, FSG conducted the following activities, in addition to drawing on our experience supporting strategic learning and evaluation in complex environments. Appendix A includes a complete list of grants reviewed and interviewees.Grants analysis: FSG analyzed Omidyar Network's Initiative Results Architecture frameworks and 23 grants within its ecosystem investment portfolio. These docu­ments helped ground our research in an understanding of the different types of ecosystem investments Omidyar Network is making, as well as how the organiza­tion currently evaluates the impact of its ecosystem investments.Literature review: FSG reviewed more than 60 publications to identify best practices in evaluating ecosystem investments—these publications included both peer-reviewed journal articles and "grey literature" (conference presentations, blog posts) by organizations employing advocacy-type strategies.Interviews: FSG conducted interviews with nine external experts (listed in Appen­dix A) to more deeply understand effective practices in evaluating the effects of eco­system investments and to identify leading organizations in this area. Interviewees were identified to glean best practices from both within and outside the traditional social sector

Pathways to Coastal Resiliency: the Adaptive Gradients Framework

Current and future climate-related coastal impacts such as catastrophic and repetitive flooding, hurricane intensity, and sea level rise necessitate a new approach to developing and managing coastal infrastructure. Traditional “hard” or “grey” engineering solutions are proving both expensive and inflexible in the face of a rapidly changing coastal environment. Hybrid solutions that incorporate natural, nature-based, structural, and non-structural features may better achieve a broad set of goals such as ecological enhancement, long-term adaptation, and social benefits, but broad consideration and uptake of these approaches has been slow. One barrier to the widespread implementation of hybrid solutions is the lack of a relatively quick but holistic evaluation framework that places these broader environmental and societal goals on equal footing with the more traditional goal of exposure reduction. To respond to this need, the Adaptive Gradients Framework was developed and pilot-tested as a qualitative, flexible, and collaborative process guide for organizations to understand, evaluate, and potentially select more diverse kinds of infrastructural responses. These responses would ideally include natural, nature-based, and regulatory/cultural approaches, as well as hybrid designs combining multiple approaches. It enables rapid expert review of project designs based on eight metrics called “gradients”, which include exposure reduction, cost efficiency, institutional capacity, ecological enhancement, adaptation over time, greenhouse gas reduction, participatory process, and social benefits. The framework was conceptualized and developed in three phases: relevant factors and barriers were collected from practitioners and experts by survey; these factors were ranked by importance and used to develop the initial framework; several case studies were iteratively evaluated using this technique; and the framework was finalized for implementation. The article presents the framework and a pilot test of its application, along with resources that would enable wider application of the framework by practitioners and theorists

Identifying robust response options to manage environmental change using an ecosystem approach:a stress-testing case study for the UK

A diverse range of response options was evaluated in terms of their utility for sustaining ecosystem services in the UK. Robustness of response options was investigated by applying a ‘stress-testing’ method which evaluated expected performance against combined scenarios of socioeconomic and climate change. Based upon stakeholder feedback, a reference scenario representing current trends in climate and socioeconomic drivers (‘business-as-usual’) was used as a dynamic baseline against which to compare results of other scenarios. The robustness of response options was evaluated by their utility in different environmental and social contexts as represented by the scenarios, and linked to their adaptability to adjust to changing conditions. Key findings demonstrate that adaptability becomes increasingly valuable as the magnitude and rate of future change diverges from current trends. Stress-testing also revealed that individual responses in isolation are unlikely to be robust meaning there are advantages from integrating cohesive combinations (bundles) of response options to maximise their individual strengths and compensate for weaknesses. This identifies a role for both top-down and bottom-up responses, including regulation, spatial targeting, incentives and partnership initiatives, and their use in combination through integrated assessment and planning consistent with the adoption of an Ecosystem Approach. Stress-testing approaches can have an important role in future-proofing policy appraisals but important knowledge gaps remain, especially for cultural and supporting ecosystem services. Finally, barriers and enablers to the implementation of more integrated long-term adaptive responses were identified drawing on the ‘4 Is’ (Institutions, Information, Incentives, Identity) conceptual framework. This highlighted the crucial but usually understated role of identity in promoting ownership and uptake of responses