Past, present, and future geo-biosphere interactions on the Tibetan Plateau and implications for permafrost

This manuscript resulted from a Workshop in 2019 at the Senckenberg Research Institute and Natural History Museum Frankfurt, Germany, supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA20100300). J. Liu also thanks the support of the Henan Provincial Key Laboratory of Hydrosphere and Watershed Water Security. T. Ehlers thanks the California Institute of Technology Moore Distinguished Scholar Program for support in completing this manuscript during a sabbatical. J. Liu and T. Bolch thank the support from the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (grants no. XDA20060402, XDA20100300). We thank the German Science Foundation (DFG) for support of the TiP (Tibetan Plateau: Formation-Climate-Ecoystems) priority research program (SPP-1372) for initiating the collaborations that led to this manuscript.Interactions between the atmosphere, biosphere, cryosphere, hydrosphere, and geosphere are most active in the critical zone, a region extending from the tops of trees to the top of unweathered bedrock. Changes in one or more of these spheres can result in a cascade of changes throughout the system in ways that are often poorly understood. Here we investigate how past and present climate change have impacted permafrost, hydrology, and ecosystems on the Tibetan Plateau. We do this by compiling existing climate, hydrologic, cryosphere, biosphere, and geologic studies documenting change over decadal to glacial-interglacial timescales and longer. Our emphasis is on showing present-day trends in environmental change and how plateau ecosystems have largely flourished under warmer and wetter periods in the geologic past. We identify two future pathways that could lead to either a favorable greening or unfavorable degradation and desiccation of plateau ecosystems. Both paths are plausible given the available evidence. We contend that the key to which pathway future generations experience lies in what, if any, human intervention measures are implemented. We conclude with suggested management strategies that can be implemented to facilitate a future greening of the Tibetan Plateau.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Uplift, Climate and Biotic Changes at the Eocene-Oligocene Transition in Southeast Tibet

The uplift history of southeastern Tibet is crucial to understanding processes driving the tectonic evolution of the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding areas. Underpinning existing palaeoaltimetric studies has been regional mapping based in large part on biostratigraphy that assumes a Neogene modernisation of the highly diverse, but threatened, Asian biota. Here, with new radiometric dating and newly-collected plant fossil archives, we quantify the surface height of part of Tibet’s southeastern margin of Tibet in the latest Eocene (~34 Ma) to be ~3 km and rising, possibly attaining its present elevation (3.9 km) in the early Oligocene. We also find that the Eocene-Oligocene transition in southeastern Tibet witnessed leaf size diminution and a floral composition change from sub-tropical/warm temperate to cool temperate, likely reflective of both uplift and secular climate change, and that by the latest Eocene floral modernization on Tibet had already taken place implying modernization was deeply-rooted in the Paleogene

Drought events and their effects on vegetation productivity in China

Many parts of the world have experienced frequent and severe droughts during the last few decades. Most previous studies examined the effects of specific drought events on vegetation productivity. In this study, we characterized the drought events in China from 1982 to 2012 and assessed their effects on vegetation productivity inferred from satellite data. We first assessed the occurrence, spatial extent, frequency, and severity of drought using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). We then examined the impacts of droughts on China\u27s terrestrial ecosystems using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). During the period 1982–2012, China\u27s land area (%) experiencing drought showed an insignificant trend. However, the drought conditions had been more severe over most regions in northern parts of China since the end of the 1990s, indicating that droughts hit these regions more frequently due to the drier climate. The severe droughts substantially reduced annual and seasonal NDVI. The magnitude and direction of the detrended NDVI under drought stress varied with season and vegetation type. The inconsistency between the regional means of PDSI and detrended NDVI could be attributed to different responses of vegetation to drought and the timing, duration, severity, and lag effects of droughts. The negative effects of droughts on vegetation productivity were partly offset by the enhancement of plant growth resulting from factors such as lower cloudiness, warming climate, and human activities (e.g., afforestation, improved agricultural management practices)

Linkages between Atmospheric Circulation, Weather, Climate, Land Cover and Social Dynamics of the Tibetan Plateau

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is an important landmass that plays a significant role in both regional and global climates. In recent decades, the TP has undergone significant changes due to climate and human activities. Since the 1980s anthropogenic activities, such as the stocking of livestock, land cover change, permafrost degradation, urbanization, highway construction, deforestation and desertification, and unsustainable land management practices, have greatly increased over the TP. As a result, grasslands have undergone rapid degradation and have altered the land surface which in turn has altered the exchange of heat and moisture properties between land and the atmosphere. But gaps still exist in our knowledge of land-atmosphere interactions in the TP and their impacts on weather and climate around the TP, making it difficult to understand the complete energy and water cycles over the region. Moreover, human, and ecological systems are interlinked, and the drivers of change include biophysical, economic, political, social, and cultural elements that operate at different temporal and spatial scales. Current studies do not holistically reflect the complex social-ecological dynamics of the Tibetan Plateau. To increase our understanding of this coupled human-natural system, there is a need for an integrated approach to rendering visible the deep interconnections between the biophysical and social systems of the TP. There is a need for an integrative framework to study the impacts of sedentary and individualized production systems on the health and livelihoods of local communities in the context of land degradation and climate change. To do so, there is a need to understand better the spatial variability and landscape patterns in grassland degradation across the TP. Therefore, the main goal of this dissertation is to contribute to our understanding of the changes over the land surface and how these changes impact the plateau\u27s weather, climate, and social dynamics. This dissertation is structured as three interrelated manuscripts, which each explore specific research questions relating to this larger goal. These manuscripts constitute the three primary papers of this dissertation. The first paper documents the significant association of surface energy flux with vegetation cover, as measured by satellite based AVHRR GIMMS3g normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, during the early growing season of May in the western region of the Tibetan Plateau. In addition, a 1°K increase in the temperature at the 500 hPa level was observed. Based on the identified positive effects of vegetation on the temperature associated with decreased NDVI in the western region of the Tibetan Plateau, I propose a positive energy process for land-atmosphere associations. In the second paper, an increase in Landsat-derived NDVI, i.e., a greening, is identified within the TP, especially during 1990 to 2018 and 2000 to 2018 time periods. Larger median growing season NDVI change values were observed for the Southeast Tibet shrublands and meadows and Tibetan Plateau Alpine Shrublands and Meadows grassland regions, in comparison to the other three regions studied. Land degradation is prominent in the lower and intermediate hillslope positions in comparison to the higher relative topographic positions, and change is more pronounced in the eastern Southeast Tibet shrublands and meadows and Tibetan Plateau Alpine Shrublands and Meadows grasslands. Geomorphons were found to be an effective spatial unit for analysis of hillslope change patterns. Through the extensive literature review presented in third paper, this dissertation recommends using critical physical geography (CPG) to study environmental and social issues in the TP. The conceptual model proposed provides a framework for analysis of the dominant controls, feedback, and interactions between natural, human, socioeconomic, and governance activities, allowing researchers to untangle climate change, land degradation, and vulnerability in the Tibetan Plateau. CPG will further help improve our understanding of the exposure of local people to climate and socio-economic and political change and help policy makers devise appropriate strategies to combat future grassland degradation and to improve the lives and strengthen livelihoods of the inhabitants of the TP

Changes in plant species richness distribution in Tibetan alpine grasslands under different precipitation scenarios

Species richness is the core of biodiversity-ecosystem functioning (BEF) research. Nevertheless, it is difficult to accurately predict changes in plant species richness under different climate scenarios, especially in alpine biomes. In this study, we surveyed plant species richness from 2009 to 2017 in 75 alpine meadows (AM), 199 alpine steppes (AS), and 71 desert steppes (DS) in the Tibetan Autonomous Region, China. Along with 20 environmental factors relevant to species settlement, development, and survival, we first simulated the spatial pattern of plant species richness under current climate conditions using random forest modelling. Our results showed that simulated species richness matched well with observed values in the field, showing an evident decrease from meadows to steppes and then to deserts. Summer precipitation, which ranked first among the 20 environmental factors, was further confirmed to be the most critical driver of species richness distribution. Next, we simulated and compared species richness patterns under four different precipitation scenarios, increasing and decreasing summer precipitation by 20% and 10%, relative to the current species richness pattern. Our findings showed that species richness in response to altered precipitation was grassland-type specific, with meadows being sensitive to decreasing precipitation, steppes being sensitive to increasing precipitation, and deserts remaining resistant. In addition, species richness at low elevations was more sensitive to decreasing precipitation than to increasing precipitation, implying that droughts might have stronger influences than wetting on species composition. In contrast, species richness at high elevations (also in deserts) changed slightly under different precipitation scenarios, likely due to harsh physical conditions and small species pools for plant recruitment and survival. Finally, we suggest that policymakers and herdsmen pay more attention to alpine grasslands in central Tibet and at low elevations where species richness is sensitive to precipitation changes

Spatiotemporal Water Yield Variations and Influencing Factors in the Lhasa River Basin, Tibetan Plateau

Understanding the spatiotemporal characteristics of water yield and its influencing factors is important for water resources management. In this study, we used the seasonal water yield model (SWYM) to assess the spatiotemporal water yield changes of the Lhasa River Basin from 1990 to 2015, and analyzed its influencing factors by focusing on precipitation, land cover, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) change. We first examined the model through Morris screening sensitivity analysis and validated it with the observed flow data. Spatiotemporal variation of three indices of water yield, baseflow, quick flow, and local recharge were then assessed. Results showed that from 1990 to 2015, the baseflow, local recharge, and quick flow decreased by 67.03%, 80.21%, and 37.03%, respectively. The spatial pattern of water yield remained mostly unchanged. According to the contribution analysis, precipitation and NDVI change were the main factors affecting water yield in the Lhasa River Basin, while land cover change began to exert greater influence after 2010. A combination of climate change and human activities therefore drive water yield change, especially through vegetation change. Water resources management strategies should thus take into account the combination of rapidly changing climate and human activities

Water use efficiency of China\u27s terrestrial ecosystems and responses to drought

Water use efficiency (WUE) measures the trade-off between carbon gain and water loss of terrestrial ecosystems, and better understanding its dynamics and controlling factors is essential for predicting ecosystem responses to climate change. We assessed the magnitude, spatial patterns, and trends of WUE of China’s terrestrial ecosystems and its responses to drought using a process-based ecosystem model. During the period from 2000 to 2011, the national average annual WUE (net primary productivity (NPP)/evapotranspiration (ET)) of China was 0.79 g C kg−1 H2O. Annual WUE decreased in the southern regions because of the decrease in NPP and the increase in ET and increased in most northern regions mainly because of the increase in NPP. Droughts usually increased annual WUE in Northeast China and central Inner Mongolia but decreased annual WUE in central China. “Turning-points” were observed for southern China where moderate and extreme droughts reduced annual WUE and severe drought slightly increased annual WUE. The cumulative lagged effect of drought on monthly WUE varied by region. Our findings have implications for ecosystem management and climate policy making. WUE is expected to continue to change under future climate change particularly as drought is projected to increase in both frequency and severity

Energy and Water Cycles in the Third Pole

As the most prominent and complicated terrain on the globe, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is often called the “Roof of the World”, “Third Pole” or “Asian Water Tower”. The energy and water cycles in the Third Pole have great impacts on the atmospheric circulation, Asian monsoon system and global climate change. On the other hand, the TP and the surrounding higher elevation area are also experiencing evident and rapid environmental changes under the background of global warming. As the headwater area of major rivers in Asia, the TP’s environmental changes—such as glacial retreat, snow melting, lake expanding and permafrost degradation—pose potential long-term threats to water resources of the local and surrounding regions. To promote quantitative understanding of energy and water cycles of the TP, several field campaigns, including GAME/Tibet, CAMP/Tibet and TORP, have been carried out. A large amount of data have been collected to gain a better understanding of the atmospheric boundary layer structure, turbulent heat fluxes and their coupling with atmospheric circulation and hydrological processes. The focus of this reprint is to present recent advances in quantifying land–atmosphere interactions, the water cycle and its components, energy balance components, climate change and hydrological feedbacks by in situ measurements, remote sensing or numerical modelling approaches in the “Third Pole” region