Producing policy-relevant science by enhancing robustness and model integration for the assessment of global environmental change

We use the flexible model coupling technology known as the bespoke framework generator to link established existing modules representing dynamics in the global economy (GEMINI_E3), the energy system (TIAM-WORLD), the global and regional climate system (MAGICC6, PLASIM-ENTS and ClimGEN), the agricultural system, the hydrological system and ecosystems (LPJmL), together in a single integrated assessment modelling (IAM) framework, building on the pre-existing framework of the Community Integrated Assessment System. Next, we demonstrate the application of the framework to produce policy-relevant scientific information. We use it to show that when using carbon price mechanisms to induce a transition from a high-carbon to a low-carbon economy, prices can be minimised if policy action is taken early, if burden sharing regimes are used, and if agriculture is intensified. Some of the coupled models have been made available for use at a secure and user-friendly web portal

Producing Policy-relevant Science by Enhancing Robustness and Model Integration for the Assessment of Global Environmental Change

We use the flexible model coupling technology known as the bespoke framework generator to link established existing modules representing dynamics in the global economy (GEMINI_E3), the energy system (TIAM-WORLD), the global and regional climate system (MAGICC6, PLASIM-ENTS and ClimGEN), the agricultural system, the hydrological system and ecosystems (LPJmL), together in a single integrated assessment modelling (IAM) framework, building on the pre-existing framework of the Community Integrated Assessment System. Next, we demonstrate the application of the framework to produce policy-relevant scientific information. We use it to show that when using carbon price mechanisms to induce a transition from a high-carbon to a low-carbon economy, prices can be minimised if policy action is taken early, if burden sharing regimes are used, and if agriculture is intensified. Some of the coupled models have been made available for use at a secure and user-friendly web portal. © 2018 The Author

Identifying robust response options to manage environmental change using an ecosystem approach:a stress-testing case study for the UK

A diverse range of response options was evaluated in terms of their utility for sustaining ecosystem services in the UK. Robustness of response options was investigated by applying a ‘stress-testing’ method which evaluated expected performance against combined scenarios of socioeconomic and climate change. Based upon stakeholder feedback, a reference scenario representing current trends in climate and socioeconomic drivers (‘business-as-usual’) was used as a dynamic baseline against which to compare results of other scenarios. The robustness of response options was evaluated by their utility in different environmental and social contexts as represented by the scenarios, and linked to their adaptability to adjust to changing conditions. Key findings demonstrate that adaptability becomes increasingly valuable as the magnitude and rate of future change diverges from current trends. Stress-testing also revealed that individual responses in isolation are unlikely to be robust meaning there are advantages from integrating cohesive combinations (bundles) of response options to maximise their individual strengths and compensate for weaknesses. This identifies a role for both top-down and bottom-up responses, including regulation, spatial targeting, incentives and partnership initiatives, and their use in combination through integrated assessment and planning consistent with the adoption of an Ecosystem Approach. Stress-testing approaches can have an important role in future-proofing policy appraisals but important knowledge gaps remain, especially for cultural and supporting ecosystem services. Finally, barriers and enablers to the implementation of more integrated long-term adaptive responses were identified drawing on the ‘4 Is’ (Institutions, Information, Incentives, Identity) conceptual framework. This highlighted the crucial but usually understated role of identity in promoting ownership and uptake of responses

Interdisciplinarity and research on local issues: evidence from a developing country

This paper examines the role of interdisciplinarity on research pertaining to local issues. Using Colombian publications from 1991 until 2011 in the Web of Science, we investigate the relationship between the degree of interdisciplinarity and the local orientation of the articles. We find that a higher degree of interdisciplinarity in a publication is associated with a greater emphasis on local issues. In particular, our results support the view that research that combines cognitively disparate disciplines, what we refer to as distal interdisciplinarity, is associated with more local focus of research. We discuss the policy implications of these results in the context of national research assessments targeting excellence and socio-economic impact

Towards a reflexive turn in the governance of global environmental expertise the cases of the IPCC and the IPBES

The role and design of global expert organizations such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) or the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) needs rethinking. Acknowledging that a one-size-fits-all model does not exist, we suggest a reflexive turn that implies treating the governance of expertise as a matter of political contestation

A multiple-uncertainty analysis framework for integrated assessment modelling of several sustainable development goals

This research introduces a two-level integration of climate-economy modelling and portfolio analysis, to simulate technological subsidisation with implications for multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), across socioeconomic trajectories and considering different levels of uncertainties. We use integrated assessment modelling outputs relevant for progress across three SDGs namely air pollution-related mortality (SDG3), access to clean energy (SDG7) and greenhouse gas emissions (SDG13) calculated with the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) for different subsidy levels for six sustainable technologies, across three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), feeding them into a portfolio analysis model. Optimal portfolios that are robust in the individual socioeconomic scenarios as well as across the socioeconomic scenarios are identified, by means of an SSP-robustness score. A second link between the two models is established, by feeding portfolio analysis results back into GCAM. Application in a case study for Eastern Africa confirms that most SSP-robust portfolios show smaller output ranges among scenarios

Ex Ante Impact Assessment of Policies Affecting Land Use, Part B: Application of the Analytical Framework

The use of science-based tools for impact assessment has increasingly gained focus in addressing the complexity of interactions between environment, society, and economy. For integrated assessment of policies affecting land use, an analytical framework was developed. The aim of our work was to apply the analytical framework for specific scenario cases and in combination with quantitative and qualitative application methods. The analytical framework was tested for two cases involving the ex ante impact assessment of: (1) a European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) financial reform scenario employing a modeling approach and combined with a comprehensive indicator analysis and valuation; and (2) a regional bioenergy policy scenario, employing a fully participatory approach. The results showed that European land use in general is less sensitive to changes in the Common Agricultural Policy, but in the context of regions there can be significant impacts on the functions of land use. In general, the implementation of the analytical framework for impact assessment proved to be doable with both methods, i.e., with the quantitative modeling and with the qualitative participatory approach. A key advantage of using the system of linked quantitative models is that it makes possible the simultaneous consideration of all relevant sectors of the economy without abstaining from a great level of detail for sectors of particular interest. Other advantages lie in the incontestable character of the results. Based on neutral, existing data with a fixed set of settings and regions, an absolute comparability and reproducibility throughout Europe can be maintained. Analyzing the pros and cons of both approaches showed that they could be used complementarily rather than be seen as competing alternatives

Towards resilience through systems-based plant breeding. A review

How the growing world population can feed itself is a crucial, multi-dimensional problem that goes beyond sustainable development. Crop production will be affected by many changes in its climatic, agronomic, economic, and societal contexts. Therefore, breeders are challenged to produce cultivars that strengthen both ecological and societal resilience by striving for six international sustainability targets: food security, safety and quality; food and seed sovereignty; social justice; agrobiodiversity; ecosystem services; and climate robustness. Against this background, we review the state of the art in plant breeding by distinguishing four paradigmatic orientations that currently co-exist: community-based breeding, ecosystem-based breeding, trait-based breeding, and corporate-based breeding, analyzing differences among these orientations. Our main findings are: (1) all four orientations have significant value but none alone will achieve all six sustainability targets; (2) therefore, an overarching approach is needed: “systems-based breeding,” an orientation with the potential to synergize the strengths of the ways of thinking in the current paradigmatic orientations; (3) achieving that requires specific knowledge development and integration, a multitude of suitable breeding strategies and tools, and entrepreneurship, but also a change in attitude based on corporate responsibility, circular economy and true-cost accounting, and fair and green policies. We conclude that systems-based breeding can create strong interactions between all system components. While seeds are part of the common good and the basis of agrobiodiversity, a diversity in breeding approaches, based on different entrepreneurial approaches, can also be considered part of the required agrobiodiversity. To enable systems-based breeding to play a major role in creating sustainable agriculture, a shared sense of urgency is needed to realize the required changes in breeding approaches, institutions, regulations and protocols. Based on this concept of systems-based breeding, there are opportunities for breeders to play an active role in the development of an ecologically and societally resilient, sustainable agriculture

Strategic Research Agenda for organic food and farming

The TP Organics Strategic Research Agenda (SRA) was finalised in December 2009. The purpose of the Strategic Research Agenda (SRA) is to enable research, development and knowledge transfer that will deliver relevant outcomes – results that will contribute to the improvement of the organic sector and other low external input systems. The document has been developed through a dynamic consultative process that ran from 2008 to 2009. It involved a wide range of stakeholders who enthusiastically joined the effort to define organic research priorities. From December 2008 to February; the expert groups elaborated the first draft. The consultative process involved the active participation of many different countries. Consultation involved researchers, advisors, members of inspection/certification bodies, as well as different users/beneficiaries of the research such as farmers, processors, market actors and members of civil society organisations throughout Europe and further afield in order to gather the research needs of the whole organic sector

Multi-Sectoral Uses of Water & Approaches to DSS in Water Management in the NOSTRUM Partner Countries of the Mediterranean

Agriculture contributes an average of about 10% to the GDP of the partner countries of the Mediterranean involved in the project NOSTRUM. On the other hand, industry contributes an average of about 30% in these countries. It is to remark that in almost all countries the weight of industry accounts between 20% and 30% of the national economy, with the exception of Algeria, where this weight is at about 60%, mainly imputable to the great development of oil extraction and energy sector. In the majority of participating countries, agriculture sector is the greatest consumer of water (more than 65% of total water consumption). Although the case from France where agriculture water use is only about 10% of total water consumption and Italy with around 45%, but this may be due to the fact that most countries reporting for their agricultural water consumption do not include the amount of rain-fed to cultivated lands as a part of their agriculture water use. Most agriculture water use is limited to irrigation water from streams/rivers and groundwater. Rain-fed cultivated-lands in France is almost 90% of its total cultivated area. For Croatia, data given in National Report indicate a 0% of water use for agriculture. The average of water use for agriculture for all the basin is of 62.3% but with a great scatter expressed by a high standard deviation (26.8%) that reflects a wide variation range of water use for agriculture among different countries. The average of water use for agriculture is weakly less on northern countries (52.7%) than on southern countries (75.2) but the twice values are still on the range of the average of the all basin and cannot be taken as indication of difference between north and south. Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) plans are currently developed and implemented by various countries to organize the multi-sectoral water uses. On the other hand, the need for Decision Support System (DSS) as a tool in developing and implementing Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) is in growing demand. In spite of the great potential for the research and the development of DSS, the utilization of DSS in water management is not widely spread in the partner countries. In some countries, DSS was planned and developed at the scale of territorial integrated water management. Integration of DSS application to the existing IWRM systems at the partner countries would assist in satisfying the water related Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).Integrated Water Resources Management, Decision Support Systems, Mediterranean Basin