Regeneration in gap models: priority issues for studying forest responses to climate change

Recruitment algorithms in forest gap models are examined with particular regard to their suitability for simulating forest ecosystem responses to a changing climate. The traditional formulation of recruitment is found limiting in three areas. First, the aggregation of different regeneration stages (seed production, dispersal, storage, germination and seedling establishment) is likely to result in less accurate predictions of responses as compared to treating each stage separately. Second, the relatedassumptions that seeds of all species are uniformly available and that environmental conditions are homogeneous, are likely to cause overestimates of future species diversity and forest migration rates. Third, interactions between herbivores (ungulates and insect pests) and forest vegetation are a big unknown with potentially serious impacts in many regions. Possible strategies for developing better gap model representations for the climate-sensitive aspects of each of these key areas are discussed. A working example of a relatively new model that addresses some of these limitations is also presented for each case. We conclude that better models of regeneration processes are desirable for predicting effects of climate change, but that it is presently impossible to determine what improvements can be expected without carrying out rigorous tests for each new formulation

An Agent-Based Model of Mortality Shocks, Intergenerational Effects, and Urban Crime

Rational criminals choose crime over lawfulness because it pays better; hence poverty correlates to criminal behavior. This correlation is an insufficient historical explanation. An agent-based model of urban crime, mortality, and exogenous population shocks supplements the standard economic story, closing the gap with an empirical reality that often breaks from trend. Agent decision making within the model is built around a career maximization function, with life expectancy as the key independent variable. Rational choice takes the form of a local information heuristic, resulting in subjectively rational suboptimal decision making. The effects of population shocks are explored using the Crime and Mortality Simulation (CAMSIM), with effects demonstrated to persist across generations. Past social trauma are found to lead to higher crime rates which subsequently decline as the effect degrades, though \'aftershocks\' are often experienced.Agent-Based Model, Crime, Bounded Rationality, Life Expectancy, Rational Choice

Measurements, Models, Systems and Design

531 s.

Computation Approaches for Continuous Reinforcement Learning Problems

Optimisation theory is at the heart of any control process, where we seek to control the behaviour of a system through a set of actions. Linear control problems have been extensively studied, and optimal control laws have been identified. But the world around us is highly non-linear and unpredictable. For these dynamic systems, which don’t possess the nice mathematical properties of the linear counterpart, the classic control theory breaks and other methods have to be employed. But nature thrives by optimising non-linear and over-complicated systems. Evolutionary Computing (EC) methods exploit nature’s way by imitating the evolution process and avoid to solve the control problem analytically. Reinforcement Learning (RL) from the other side regards the optimal control problem as a sequential one. In every discrete time step an action is applied. The transition of the system to a new state is accompanied by a sole numerical value, the “reward” that designate the quality of the control action. Even though the amount of feedback information is limited into a sole real number, the introduction of the Temporal Difference method made possible to have accurate predictions of the value-functions. This paved the way to optimise complex structures, like the Neural Networks, which are used to approximate the value functions. In this thesis we investigate the solution of continuous Reinforcement Learning control problems by EC methodologies. The accumulated reward of such problems throughout an episode suffices as information to formulate the required measure, fitness, in order to optimise a population of candidate solutions. Especially, we explore the limits of applicability of a specific branch of EC, that of Genetic Programming (GP). The evolving population in the GP case is comprised from individuals, which are immediately translated to mathematical functions, which can serve as a control law. The major contribution of this thesis is the proposed unification of these disparate Artificial Intelligence paradigms. The provided information from the systems are exploited by a step by step basis from the RL part of the proposed scheme and by an episodic basis from GP. This makes possible to augment the function set of the GP scheme with adaptable Neural Networks. In the quest to achieve stable behaviour of the RL part of the system a modification of the Actor-Critic algorithm has been implemented. Finally we successfully apply the GP method in multi-action control problems extending the spectrum of the problems that this method has been proved to solve. Also we investigated the capability of GP in relation to problems from the food industry. These type of problems exhibit also non-linearity and there is no definite model describing its behaviour

Combining literature-based and data-driven fuzzy models to predict brown trout (salmo trutta l.) spawning habitat degradation induced by climate change

[EN] A fuzzy rule-based system combining empirical data on hydraulic preferences and literature information on temperature requirements was used to foresee the brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) spawning habitat degradation induced by climate change. The climatic scenarios for the Cabriel River (Eastern Iberian Peninsula) corresponded to two Representative Concentration Pathways (4.5 and 8.5) for the short (2011¿2040) and mid (2041¿2070) term horizons. The hydraulic and hydrologic modelling were undertaken with process-based numerical models (i.e., River2D© and HBV-light) while the water temperature was modelled by assembling the predictions of three machine learning techniques (M5, Multi-Adaptive Regression Splines and Support Vector Regression). The predicted rise in the water temperature will not be compensated by the more benign lower flows. Consequently, the suitable spawning habitat will be reduced between 15.4¿48.7%. The entire population shall suffer the effects of climate change and will probably be extirpated from the downstream segments of the river.The study has been partially funded by the IMPADAPT project (CGL2013-48424-C2-1-R) with Spanish MINECO (Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad) and FEDER funds and by the Confederación Hidrográfica del Júcar (Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Environment). The authors thank AEMET and UC for the data provided for this work (dataset Spain02). Finally, we are grateful to the colleagues who worked in the field and in preliminary data analyses; especially Marcello Minervini (funded by the EU programme of Erasmus Traineeships, at the Dept. of Hydraulic Engineering and Environment, Universitat Politècnica de València).Muñoz Mas, R.; Marcos-García, P.; Lopez-Nicolas, A.; Martínez-García, F.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Martinez-Capel, F. (2018). Combining literature-based and data-driven fuzzy models to predict brown trout (salmo trutta l.) spawning habitat degradation induced by climate change. Ecological Modelling. 386:98-114. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.08.012S9811438

Modelling approaches for mixed forests dynamics prognosis. Research gaps and opportunities

Aim of study: Modelling of forest growth and dynamics has focused mainly on pure stands. Mixed-forest management lacks systematic procedures to forecast the impact of silvicultural actions. The main objective of the present work is to review current knowledge and forest model developments that can be applied to mixed forests.Material and methods: Primary research literature was reviewed to determine the state of the art for modelling tree species mixtures, focusing mainly on temperate forests.Main results: The essential principles for predicting stand growth in mixed forests were identified. Forest model applicability in mixtures was analysed. Input data, main model components, output and viewers were presented. Finally, model evaluation procedures and some of the main model platforms were described.Research highlights: Responses to environmental changes and management activities in mixed forests can differ from pure stands. For greater insight into mixed-forest dynamics and ecology, forest scientists and practitioners need new theoretical frameworks, different approaches and innovative solutions for sustainable forest management in the context of environmental and social changes.Keywords: dynamics, ecology, growth, yield, empirical, classification

A novel heuristic algorithm for the modeling and risk assessment of the covid-19 pandemic phenomenon

The modeling and risk assessment of a pandemic phenomenon such as COVID-19 is an important and complicated issue in epidemiology, and such an attempt is of great interest for public health decision-making. To this end, in the present study, based on a recent heuristic algorithm proposed by the authors, the time evolution of COVID-19 is investigated for six different countries/states, namely New York, California, USA, Iran, Sweden and UK. The number of COVID-19-related deaths is used to develop the proposed heuristic model as it is believed that the predicted number of daily deaths in each country/state includes information about the quality of the health system in each area, the age distribution of population, geographical and environmental factors as well as other conditions. Based on derived predicted epidemic curves, a new 3D-epidemic surface is proposed to assess the epidemic phenomenon at any time of its evolution. This research highlights the potential of the proposed model as a tool which can assist in the risk assessment of the COVID-19. Mapping its development through 3D-epidemic surface can assist in revealing its dynamic nature as well as differences and similarities among different districts

Forecasting in Mathematics

Mathematical probability and statistics are an attractive, thriving, and respectable part of mathematics. Some mathematicians and philosophers of science say they are the gateway to mathematics’ deepest mysteries. Moreover, mathematical statistics denotes an accumulation of mathematical discussions connected with efforts to most efficiently collect and use numerical data subject to random or deterministic variations. Currently, the concept of probability and mathematical statistics has become one of the fundamental notions of modern science and the philosophy of nature. This book is an illustration of the use of mathematics to solve specific problems in engineering, statistics, and science in general