Development of an Aggregation Methodology for Risk Analysis in Aerospace Conceptual Vehicle Design

The growing complexity of technical systems has emphasized a need to gather as much information as possible regarding specific systems of interest in order to make robust, sound decisions about their design and deployment. Acquiring as much data as possible requires the use of empirical statistics, historical information and expert opinion. In much of the aerospace conceptual design environment, the lack of historical information and infeasibility of gathering empirical data relegates the data collection to expert opinion. The conceptual design of a space vehicle requires input from several disciplines (weights and sizing, operations, trajectory, etc.). In this multidisciplinary environment, the design variables are often not easily quantified and have a high degree of uncertainty associated with their values. Decision-makers must rely on expert assessments of the uncertainty associated with the design variables to evaluate the risk level of a conceptual design. Since multiple experts are often queried for their evaluation of uncertainty, a means to combine/aggregate multiple expert assessments must be developed. Providing decision-makers with a solitary assessment that captures the consensus of the multiple experts would greatly enhance the ability to evaluate risk associated with a conceptual design. The objective of this research has been to develop an aggregation methodology that efficiently combines the uncertainty assessments of multiple experts in multiple disciplines involved in aerospace conceptual design. Bayesian probability augmented by uncertainty modeling and expert calibration was employed in the methodology construction. Appropriate questionnaire techniques were used to acquire expert opinion; the responses served as input distributions to the aggregation algorithm. Application of the derived techniques were applied as part of a larger expert assessment elicitation and calibration study. Results of this research demonstrate that aggregation of uncertainty assessments in environments where likelihood functions and empirically assessed expert credibility factors are deficient is possible. Validation of the methodology provides evidence that decision-makers find the aggregated responses useful in formulating decision strategies

Ontological clarity and comprehension in health data models

Conceptual modeling forms an important part of systems analysis. If this is done incorrectly or incompletely, there can be serious implications for the resultant system, specifically in terms of rework and useability. One approach to improving the conceptual modelling process is to evaluate how well the model represents reality. Emergence of the Bunge-Wand-Weber (BWW) ontological model introduced a platform to classify and compare the grammar of conceptual modelling languages. This work applies the BWW theory to a real world example in the health arena. The general practice computing group data model was developed using the Barker Entity Relationship Modelling technique. We describe an experiment, grounded in ontological theory, which evaluates how well the GPCG data model is understood by domain experts. The results show that with the exception of the use of entities to represent events, the raw model is better understood by domain expert

Empirical validation of knowledge-based systems for conceptual database design

Conceptual database design is a complex and difficult task for non-expert designers. However, many of the commonly committed errors can be prevented with a knowledge-based (KB) design support system. The interface to such a system can be programmed using one of two strategies: (1) restrictive strategy in which the user is forced to follow a specific problem solving path or (2) the guidance strategy in which the user is advised on possible next steps in the problem solving process. This study involves the development of two versions of a KB system – one with a restrictive interface and other with a guidance interface – and a control system that offers no KB help. In a lab experiment non-expert designers solved a difficult data modeling task using one of the three systems. Analysis of their performance indicates that the KB systems improve the users’ model accuracy. However, there was no significant difference in performance between the two KB system implementations. Subjects in the restrictive interface group rated their system as easier to use than the guidance interface group users

Modeling social information skills

In a modern economy, the most important resource consists in\ud human talent: competent, knowledgeable people. Locating the right person for\ud the task is often a prerequisite to complex problem-solving, and experienced\ud professionals possess the social skills required to find appropriate human\ud expertise. These skills can be reproduced more and more with specific\ud computer software, an approach defining the new field of social information\ud retrieval. We will analyze the social skills involved and show how to model\ud them on computer. Current methods will be described, notably information\ud retrieval techniques and social network theory. A generic architecture and its\ud functions will be outlined and compared with recent work. We will try in this\ud way to estimate the perspectives of this recent domain

Ontological Clarity, Cognitive Engagement, and Conceptual Model Quality Evaluation: An Experimental Investigation

When analysts build information systems, they document their understanding of users’ work domains via conceptual models. Once a model has been developed, analysts should then check it has no defects. The literature provides little guidance about approaches to improve the effectiveness of conceptual model quality evaluation work. In this light, we propose a theory in which two factors have a material impact on the effectiveness of conceptual model quality evaluation work: (a) the ontological clarity of the conceptual models prepared, and (b) the extent to which analysts use a quality evaluation method designed to cognitively engage stakeholders with the semantics of the domain represented by a conceptual model. We tested our theory using an experiment involving forty-eight expert data modeling practitioners. Their task was to find as many defects as possible in a conceptual model. Our results showed that participants who received the conceptual model with greater ontological clarity on average detected more defects. However, participants who were given a quality evaluation method designed to cognitively engage them more with the semantics of the domain did not detect more defects. Nonetheless, during our analysis of participants’ protocols, we found that those who manifested higher levels of cognitive engagement with the model detected more defects. Thus, we believe that our treatment for the level of cognitive engagement evoked by the quality evaluation method did not take effect. Based on our protocol analyses, we argue that cognitive engagement appears to be an important factor that affects the quality of conceptual model evaluation work

Specifications and Development of Interoperability Solution dedicated to Multiple Expertise Collaboration in a Design Framework

This paper describes the specifications of an interoperability platform based on the PPO (Product Process Organization) model developed by the French community IPPOP in the context of collaborative and innovative design. By using PPO model as a reference, this work aims to connect together heterogonous tools used by experts easing data and information exchanges. After underlining the growing needs of collaborative design process, this paper focuses on interoperability concept by describing current solutions and their limits. Then a solution based on the flexibility of the PPO model adapted to the philosophy of interoperability is proposed. To illustrate these concepts, several examples are more particularly described (robustness analysis, CAD and Product Lifecycle Management systems connections)

Knowledge formalization in experience feedback processes : an ontology-based approach

Because of the current trend of integration and interoperability of industrial systems, their size and complexity continue to grow making it more difficult to analyze, to understand and to solve the problems that happen in their organizations. Continuous improvement methodologies are powerful tools in order to understand and to solve problems, to control the effects of changes and finally to capitalize knowledge about changes and improvements. These tools involve suitably represent knowledge relating to the concerned system. Consequently, knowledge management (KM) is an increasingly important source of competitive advantage for organizations. Particularly, the capitalization and sharing of knowledge resulting from experience feedback are elements which play an essential role in the continuous improvement of industrial activities. In this paper, the contribution deals with semantic interoperability and relates to the structuring and the formalization of an experience feedback (EF) process aiming at transforming information or understanding gained by experience into explicit knowledge. The reuse of such knowledge has proved to have significant impact on achieving themissions of companies. However, the means of describing the knowledge objects of an experience generally remain informal. Based on an experience feedback process model and conceptual graphs, this paper takes domain ontology as a framework for the clarification of explicit knowledge and know-how, the aim of which is to get lessons learned descriptions that are significant, correct and applicable

Four facets of a process modeling facilitator

Business process modeling as a practice and research field has received great attention in recent years. However, while related artifacts such as models, tools or grammars have substantially matured, comparatively little is known about the activities that are conducted as part of the actual act of process modeling. Especially the key role of the modeling facilitator has not been researched to date. In this paper, we propose a new theory-grounded, conceptual framework describing four facets (the driving engineer, the driving artist, the catalyzing engineer, and the catalyzing artist) that can be used by a facilitator. These facets with behavioral styles have been empirically explored via in-depth interviews and additional questionnaires with experienced process analysts. We develop a proposal for an emerging theory for describing, investigating, and explaining different behaviors associated with Business Process Modeling Facilitation. This theory is an important sensitizing vehicle for examining processes and outcomes from process modeling endeavors

Model-driven Enterprise Systems Configuration

Enterprise Systems potentially lead to significant efficiency gains but require a well-conducted configuration process. A promising idea to manage and simplify the configuration process is based on the premise of using reference models for this task. Our paper continues along this idea and delivers a two-fold contribution: first, we present a generic process for the task of model-driven Enterprise Systems configuration including the steps of (a) Specification of configurable reference models, (b) Configuration of configurable reference models, (c) Transformation of configured reference models to regular build time models, (d) Deployment of the generated build time models, (e) Controlling of implementation models to provide input to the configuration, and (f) Consolidation of implementation models to provide input to reference model specification. We discuss inputs and outputs as well as the involvement of different roles and validation mechanisms. Second, we present an instantiation case of this generic process for Enterprise Systems configuration based on Configurable EPCs