Human behaviors: a threat for mosquito control?

Community involvement and the preventive behavior of households are considered to be at the heart of vector-control strategies. In this work, we consider a simple theoretical model that enables us to take into account human behaviors that may interfere with vector control. The model reflects the trade-off between perceived costs and observed efficacy. Our theoretical results emphasize that households may reduce their protective behavior in response to mechanical elimination techniques piloted by a public agent, leading to an increase of the total number of mosquitoes in the surrounding environment and generating a barrier for vector-borne diseases control. Our study is sufficiently generic to be applied to different arboviral diseases. It also shows that vector-control models and strategies have to take into account human behaviors.Comment: 27 pages, 7 figure

Modelling vector-borne diseases: epidemic and inter-epidemic activities with application to Rift Valley fever

A Thesis submitted to the Faculty of Science in ful lment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, School of Computer Science and Applied Mathematics. Johannesburg, 2016.In this thesis in order to study the complex dynamics of Rift Valley fever (RVF) we combine two modelling approaches: equation-based and simulation-based modelling. In the first approach we first formulate a deterministic model that includes two vector populations, Aedes and Culex mosquitoes with one host population (livestock), while considering both horizontal and vertical transmissions. An easy applicable expression of the basic reproduction number, R0 is derived for both periodic and non-periodic environment. Both time invariant and time varying uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the model is carried out for quantifying the attribution of model output variations to input parameters over time and novel relationships between R0 and vertical transmission are determined providing important information useful for improving disease management. Then, we analytically derive conditions for stability of both disease-free and endemic equilibria. Using techniques of numerical simulations we perform bifurcation and chaos analysis of the model under periodic environment for evaluating the effects of climatic conditions on the characteristic pattern of disease outbreaks. Moreover, extending this model including vectors other than mosquitoes (such as ticks) we evaluate the possible role of ticks in the spread and persistence of the disease pointing out relevant model parameters that require further attention from experimental ecologists to further determine the actual role of ticks and other biting insects on the dynamics of RVF. Additionally, a novel host-vector stochastic model with vertical transmission is used to analytically determine the dominant period of disease outbreaks with respect to vertical transmission efficiency. Then, novel relationships among vertical transmission, invasion and extinction probabilities and R0 are determined. In the second approach a novel individual-based model (IBM) of complete mosquito life cycle built under daily temperature and rainfall data sets is designed and simulated. The model is applied for determining correlation between abundance of mosquito populations and rainfall regimes and is then used for studying disease inter-epidemic activities. We find that indeed rainfall is responsible for creating intra- and inter-annual variations observed in the abundance of adult mosquitoes and the length of gonotrophic cycle, number of eggs laid per blood meal, adults age-dependent survival and fight behaviour are among the most important features of the mosquito life cycle with great epidemiological impacts in the dynamics of RVF transmission. These indicators could be of great epidemiological significance by allowing disease control program managers to focus their e orts on specific features of vector life cycle including vertical transmission ability and diapause. We argue that our IBM model is an ideal extendible framework useful for further investigations of other relevant host-vector ecological and epidemiological questions for providing additional knowledge important for improving the length and quality of life of humans and domestic animals.LG201

The Effect of Temperature on West Nile Virus Transmission Dynamics

West Nile virus (WNV) is a vector-borne disease that first appeared in New York in 1999, then in Southern Ontario, Canada in 2002. Since its arrival, WNV has rapidly spread across the North American continent to establish itself as a seasonal endemic infection. Among other environmental variables, temperature is the primary determinant of WNV transmission dynamics. In this dissertation, the relationship between temperature and WNV transmission dynamics is investigated and a single-season predictive model that explicitly accounts for temperature in various biological and epidemiological processes is proposed. First, we develop a mosquito abundance model where temperature is the driving force behind mosquito development, survival, and diapause. Then, the model is extended to include the WNV transmission cycle between mosquitoes and birds. Under simplifying assumptions, we derive an expression for the basic reproduction number and analyze its dependence on temperature. The transmission model was applied to the Peel Region in Southern Ontario for validation. Numerical results demonstrate the capacity of the model to capture the within-season trends of mosquito- and WNV- surveillance data. The proposed model can potentially be used as a real-time predictive tool to inform public health policy

Emergence and Prevalence of Human Vector-Borne Diseases in Sink Vector Populations

Vector-borne diseases represent a major public health concern in most tropical and subtropical areas, and an emerging threat for more developed countries. Our understanding of the ecology, evolution and control of these diseases relies predominantly on theory and data on pathogen transmission in large self-sustaining ‘source’ populations of vectors representative of highly endemic areas. However, there are numerous places where environmental conditions are less favourable to vector populations, but where immigration allows them to persist. We built an epidemiological model to investigate the dynamics of six major human vector borne-diseases in such non self-sustaining ‘sink’ vector populations. The model was parameterized through a review of the literature, and we performed extensive sensitivity analysis to look at the emergence and prevalence of the pathogen that could be encountered in these populations. Despite the low vector abundance in typical sink populations, all six human diseases were able to spread in 15–55% of cases after accidental introduction. The rate of spread was much more strongly influenced by vector longevity, immigration and feeding rates, than by transmission and virulence of the pathogen. Prevalence in humans remained lower than 5% for dengue, leishmaniasis and Japanese encephalitis, but substantially higher for diseases with longer duration of infection; malaria and the American and African trypanosomiasis. Vector-related parameters were again the key factors, although their influence was lower than on pathogen emergence. Our results emphasize the need for ecology and evolution to be thought in the context of metapopulations made of a mosaic of sink and source habitats, and to design vector control program not only targeting areas of high vector density, but working at a larger spatial scale

Natural, persistent oscillations in a spatial multi-strain disease system with application to dengue.

This is a freely-available open access publication. Please cite the published version which is available via the DOI link in this record.Many infectious diseases are not maintained in a state of equilibrium but exhibit significant fluctuations in prevalence over time. For pathogens that consist of multiple antigenic types or strains, such as influenza, malaria or dengue, these fluctuations often take on the form of regular or irregular epidemic outbreaks in addition to oscillatory prevalence levels of the constituent strains. To explain the observed temporal dynamics and structuring in pathogen populations, epidemiological multi-strain models have commonly evoked strong immune interactions between strains as the predominant driver. Here, with specific reference to dengue, we show how spatially explicit, multi-strain systems can exhibit all of the described epidemiological dynamics even in the absence of immune competition. Instead, amplification of natural stochastic differences in disease transmission, can give rise to persistent oscillations comprising semi-regular epidemic outbreaks and sequential dominance of dengue's four serotypes. Not only can this mechanism explain observed differences in serotype and disease distributions between neighbouring geographical areas, it also has important implications for inferring the nature and epidemiological consequences of immune mediated competition in multi-strain pathogen systems.Fundacao para a Ciencia e TecnologiaSiemens PortugalRoyal Societ

The effect of time delay in plant-pathogen interactions with host demography

Background: There is a need for valid and comprehensive measures of parental influence on children's energy balance-related behaviours (EBRB). Such measures should be based on a theoretical framework, acknowledging the dynamic and complex nature of interactions occurring within a family. The aim of the Family & Dietary habits (F&D) project was to develop a conceptual framework identifying important and changeable family processes influencing dietary behaviours of 13-15 year olds. A second aim was to develop valid and reliable questionnaires for adolescents and their parents (both mothers and fathers) measuring these processes. Methods: A stepwise approach was used; (1) preparation of scope and structure, (2) development of the F&D questionnaires, (3) the conducting of pilot studies and (4) the conducting of validation studies (assessing internal reliability, test-retest reliability and confirmatory factor analysis) using data from a cross-sectional study. Results: The conceptual framework includes psychosocial concepts such as family functioning, cohesion, conflicts, communication, work-family stress, parental practices and parental style. The physical characteristics of the home environment include accessibility and availability of different food items, while family meals are the sociocultural setting included. Individual characteristics measured are dietary intake (vegetables and sugar-sweetened beverages) and adolescents' impulsivity. The F&D questionnaires developed were tested in a test-retest (54 adolescents and 44 of their parents) and in a cross-sectional survey including 440 adolescents (13-15 year olds), 242 mothers and 155 fathers. The samples appear to be relatively representative for Norwegian adolescents and parents. For adolescents, mothers and fathers, the test-retest reliability of the dietary intake, frequencies of (family) meals, work-family stress and communication variables was satisfactory (ICC: 0.53-0.99). Barratt Impulsiveness Scale-Brief (BIS-Brief) was included, assessing adolescent's impulsivity. The internal reliability (Cronbach's alphas: 0.77/0.82) and test-retest reliability values (ICC: 0.74/0.77) of BIS-Brief were good. Conclusions: The conceptual framework developed may be a useful tool in guiding measurement and assessment of the home food environment and family processes related to adolescents' dietary habits, in particular and for EBRBs more generally. The results support the use of the F&D questionnaires as psychometrically sound tools to assess family characteristics and adolescent's impulsivity

A threshold policy to interrupt transmission of West Nile Virus to birds

This paper proposes a model of West Nile Virus (WNV) with a Filippov-type control strategy of culling mosquitoes implemented once the number of infected birds exceeds a threshold level. The long-term dynamical behaviour of the proposed non-smooth system is investigated. It is shown hat as the threshold value varies, model solutions ultimately approach either one of two endemic equilibria for two subsystems or a pseudo-equilibrium on the switching surface, which is a novel steady state. The results indicate that a previously chosen level of infected birds can be maintained when the threshold policy and other parameters are chosen properly. Numerical studies show that under the threshold policy, strengthening mosquito culling together with protecting bird population is beneficial to curbing the spread of WNV