A novel hybrid algorithm for mean-CVaR portfolio selection with real-world constraints

In this paper, we employ the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) to measure the portfolio risk, and propose a mean-CVaR portfolio selection model. In addition, some real-world constraints are considered. The constructed model is a non-linear discrete optimization problem and difficult to solve by the classic optimization techniques. A novel hybrid algorithm based particle swarm optimization (PSO) and artificial bee colony (ABC) is designed for this problem. The hybrid algorithm introduces the ABC operator into PSO. A numerical example is given to illustrate the modeling idea of the paper and the effectiveness of the proposed hybrid algorithm

Bayesian Cointegrated Vector Autoregression models incorporating Alpha-stable noise for inter-day price movements via Approximate Bayesian Computation

We consider a statistical model for pairs of traded assets, based on a Cointegrated Vector Auto Regression (CVAR) Model. We extend standard CVAR models to incorporate estimation of model parameters in the presence of price series level shifts which are not accurately modeled in the standard Gaussian error correction model (ECM) framework. This involves developing a novel matrix variate Bayesian CVAR mixture model comprised of Gaussian errors intra-day and Alpha-stable errors inter-day in the ECM framework. To achieve this we derive a novel conjugate posterior model for the Scaled Mixtures of Normals (SMiN CVAR) representation of Alpha-stable inter-day innovations. These results are generalized to asymmetric models for the innovation noise at inter-day boundaries allowing for skewed Alpha-stable models. Our proposed model and sampling methodology is general, incorporating the current literature on Gaussian models as a special subclass and also allowing for price series level shifts either at random estimated time points or known a priori time points. We focus analysis on regularly observed non-Gaussian level shifts that can have significant effect on estimation performance in statistical models failing to account for such level shifts, such as at the close and open of markets. We compare the estimation accuracy of our model and estimation approach to standard frequentist and Bayesian procedures for CVAR models when non-Gaussian price series level shifts are present in the individual series, such as inter-day boundaries. We fit a bi-variate Alpha-stable model to the inter-day jumps and model the effect of such jumps on estimation of matrix-variate CVAR model parameters using the likelihood based Johansen procedure and a Bayesian estimation. We illustrate our model and the corresponding estimation procedures we develop on both synthetic and actual data.Comment: 30 page

Multiobjective Approach to Portfolio Optimization in the Light of the Credibility Theory

[EN] The present research proposes a novel methodology to solve the problems faced by investors who take into consideration different investment criteria in a fuzzy context. The approach extends the stochastic mean-variance model to a fuzzy multiobjective model where liquidity is considered to quantify portfolio's performance, apart from the usual metrics like return and risk. The uncertainty of the future returns and the future liquidity of the potential assets are modelled employing trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. The decision process of the proposed approach considers that portfolio selection is a multidimensional issue and also some realistic constraints applied by investors. Particularly, this approach optimizes the expected return, the risk and the expected liquidity of the portfolio, considering bound constraints and cardinality restrictions. As a result, an optimization problem for the constraint portfolio appears, which is solved by means of the NSGA-II algorithm. This study defines the credibilistic Sortino ratio and the credibilistic STARR ratio for selecting the optimal portfolio. An empirical study on the S&P100 index is included to show the performance of the model in practical applications. The results obtained demonstrate that the novel approach can beat the index in terms of return and risk in the analyzed period, from 2008 until 2018.García García, F.; González-Bueno, J.; Guijarro, F.; Oliver-Muncharaz, J.; Tamosiuniene, R. (2020). Multiobjective Approach to Portfolio Optimization in the Light of the Credibility Theory. Technological and Economic Development of Economy (Online). 26(6):1165-1186. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2020.13189S11651186266Acerbi, C., & Tasche, D. (2002). On the coherence of expected shortfall. Journal of Banking & Finance, 26(7), 1487-1503. doi:10.1016/s0378-4266(02)00283-2Ahmed, A., Ali, R., Ejaz, A., & Ahmad, I. (2018). 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A two-stage stochastic mixed-integer program modelling and hybrid solution approach to portfolio selection problems

In this paper, we investigate a multi-period portfolio selection problem with a comprehensive set of real-world trading constraints as well as market random uncertainty in terms of asset prices. We formulate the problem into a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer program (SMIP) with recourse. The set of constraints is modelled as mixed-integer program, while a set of decision variables to rebalance the portfolio in multiple periods is explicitly introduced as the recourse variables in the second stage of stochastic program. Although the combination of stochastic program and mixed-integer program leads to computational challenges in finding solutions to the problem, the proposed SMIP model provides an insightful and flexible description of the problem. The model also enables the investors to make decisions subject to real-world trading constraints and market uncertainty. To deal with the computational difficulty of the proposed model, a simplification and hybrid solution method is applied in the paper. The simplification method aims to eliminate the difficult constraints in the model, resulting into easier sub-problems compared to the original one. The hybrid method is developed to integrate local search with Branch-and-Bound (B&B) to solve the problem heuristically. We present computational results of the hybrid approach to analyse the performance of the proposed method. The results illustrate that the hybrid method can generate good solutions in a reasonable amount of computational time. We also compare the obtained portfolio values against an index value to illustrate the performance and strengths of the proposed SMIP model. Implications of the model and future work are also discussed

Equity portfolio management with cardinality constraints and risk parity control using multi-objective particle swarm optimization

The financial crisis and the market uncertainty of the last years have pointed out the shortcomings of traditional portfolio theory to adequately manage the different sources of risk of the investment process. This paper addresses the issue by developing an alternative portfolio design, that integrates risk parity into the cardinality constrained portfolio optimization model. The resulting mixed integer programming problem is handled by an improved multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm. Three hybrid approaches, based on a repair mechanism and different versions of the constrained-domination principle, are proposed to handle constraints. The efficiency of the algorithm and the effectiveness of the solution approaches are assessed through a set of numerical examples. Moreover, the benefits of adopting the proposed strategy instead of the cardinality constrained mean-variance approach are validated in an out-of-sample experiment

A multiperiod multiobjective portfolio selection model with fuzzy random returns for large scale securities data

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from IEEE via the DOI in this recordIt is agreed that portfolio selection models are of great importance for the financial market. In this article, a constrained multiperiod multiobjective portfolio model is established. This model introduces several constraints to reflect the trading restrictions and quantifies future security returns by fuzzy random variables to capture fuzzy and random uncertainties in the financial market. Meanwhile, it considers terminal wealth, conditional value at risk (CVaR), and skewness as tricriteria for decision making. Obviously, the proposed model is computationally challenging. This situation gets worse when investors are interested in a larger financial market since the data they need to analyze may constitute typical big data. Whereafter, a novel intelligent hybrid algorithm is devised to solve the presented model. In this algorithm, the uncertain objectives of the model are approximated by a simulated annealing resilient back propagation (SARPROP) neural network which is trained on the data provided by fuzzy random simulation. An improved imperialist competitive algorithm, named IFMOICA, is designed to search the solution space. The intelligent hybrid algorithm is compared with the one obtained by combining NSGA-II, SARPROP neural network, and fuzzy random simulation. The results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm significantly outperforms the compared one not only in the running time but also in the quality of obtained Pareto frontier. To improve the computational efficiency and handle the large scale securities data, the algorithm is parallelized using MPI. The conducted experiments illustrate that the parallel algorithm is scalable and can solve the model with the size of securities more than 400 in an acceptable time

Particle Swarm Optimization with non-smooth penalty reformulation for a complex portfolio selection problem

In the classical model for portfolio selection the risk is measured by the variance of returns. It is well known that, if returns are not elliptically distributed, this may cause inaccurate investment decisions. To address this issue, several alternative measures of risk have been proposed. In this contribution we focus on a class of measures that uses information contained both in lower and in upper tail of the distribution of the returns. We consider a nonlinear mixed-integer portfolio selection model which takes into account several constraints used in fund management practice. The latter problem is NP-hard in general, and exact algorithms for its minimization, which are both effective and efficient, are still sought at present. Thus, to approximately solve this model we experience the heuristics Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). Since PSO was originally conceived for unconstrained global optimization problems, we apply it to a novel reformulation of our mixed-integer model, where a standard exact penalty function is introduced.Portfolio selection, coherent risk measure, fund management constraints, NP-hard mathematical programming problem, PSO, exact penalty method, SP100 index's assets.

Mean univariate- GARCH VaR portfolio optimization: actual portfolio approach

In accordance with Basel Capital Accords, the Capital Requirements (CR) for market risk exposure of banks is a nonlinear function of Value-at-Risk (VaR). Importantly, the CR is calculated based on a bank’s actual portfolio, i.e. the portfolio represented by its current holdings. To tackle mean-VaR portfolio optimization within the actual portfolio framework (APF), we propose a novel mean-VaR optimization method where VaR is estimated using a univariate Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) volatility model. The optimization was performed by employing a Nondominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA-II). On a sample of 40 large US stocks, our procedure provided superior mean-VaR trade-offs compared to those obtained from applying more customary mean-multivariate GARCH and historical VaR models. The results hold true in both low and high volatility samples

A hybrid combinatorial approach to a two-stage stochastic portfolio optimization model with uncertain asset prices

Portfolio optimization is one of the most important problems in the finance field. The traditional Markowitz mean-variance model is often unrealistic since it relies on the perfect market information. In this work, we propose a two-stage stochastic portfolio optimization model with a comprehensive set of real-world trading constraints to address this issue. Our model incorporates the market uncertainty in terms of future asset price scenarios based on asset return distributions stemming from the real market data. Compared with existing models, our model is more reliable since it encompasses real-world trading constraints and it adopts CVaR as the risk measure. Furthermore, our model is more practical because it could help investors to design their future investment strategies based on their future asset price expectations. In order to solve the proposed stochastic model, we develop a hybrid combinatorial approach, which integrates a hybrid algorithm and a linear programming (LP) solver for the problem with a large number of scenarios. The comparison of the computational results obtained with three different metaheuristic algorithms and with our hybrid approach shows the effectiveness of the latter. The superiority of our model is mainly embedded in solution quality. The results demonstrate that our model is capable of solving complex portfolio optimization problems with tremendous scenarios while maintaining high solution quality in a reasonable amount of time and it has outstanding practical investment implications, such as effective portfolio constructions

A survey on financial applications of metaheuristics

Modern heuristics or metaheuristics are optimization algorithms that have been increasingly used during the last decades to support complex decision-making in a number of fields, such as logistics and transportation, telecommunication networks, bioinformatics, finance, and the like. The continuous increase in computing power, together with advancements in metaheuristics frameworks and parallelization strategies, are empowering these types of algorithms as one of the best alternatives to solve rich and real-life combinatorial optimization problems that arise in a number of financial and banking activities. This article reviews some of the works related to the use of metaheuristics in solving both classical and emergent problems in the finance arena. A non-exhaustive list of examples includes rich portfolio optimization, index tracking, enhanced indexation, credit risk, stock investments, financial project scheduling, option pricing, feature selection, bankruptcy and financial distress prediction, and credit risk assessment. This article also discusses some open opportunities for researchers in the field, and forecast the evolution of metaheuristics to include real-life uncertainty conditions into the optimization problems being considered.This work has been partially supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (TRA2013-48180-C3-P, TRA2015-71883-REDT), FEDER, and the Universitat Jaume I mobility program (E-2015-36)