Longitudinal microbiome investigation throughout prion disease course reveals pre- and symptomatic compositional perturbations linked to short-chain fatty acid metabolism and cognitive impairment in mice

Commensal intestinal bacteria shape our microbiome and have decisive roles in preserving host metabolic and immune homeostasis. They conspicuously impact disease development and progression, including amyloid-beta (Aβ) and alpha (α)-synuclein pathology in neurodegenerative diseases, conveying the importance of the brain–gut–microbiome axis in such conditions. However, little is known about the longitudinal microbiome landscape and its potential clinical implications in other protein misfolding disorders, such as prion disease. We investigated the microbiome architecture throughout prion disease course in mice. Fecal specimens were assessed by 16S ribosomal RNA sequencing. We report a temporal microbiome signature in prion disease and uncovered alterations in Lachnospiraceae, Ruminococcaceae, Desulfovibrionaceae, and Muribaculaceae family members in this disease. Moreover, we determined the enrichment of Bilophila, a microorganism connected to cognitive impairment, long before the clinical manifestation of disease symptoms. Based on temporal microbial abundances, several associated metabolic pathways and resulting metabolites, including short-chain fatty acids, were linked to the disease. We propose that neuroinflammatory processes relate to perturbations of the intestinal microbiome and metabolic state by an interorgan brain–gut crosstalk. Furthermore, we describe biomarkers possibly suitable for early disease diagnostics and anti-prion therapy monitoring. While our study is confined to prion disease, our discoveries might be of equivalent relevance in other proteinopathies and central nervous system pathologies

AGMEMOD Outlook for Agricultural and Food Markets in EU Member States 2018-2030

Policy, administration and industry need medium-term projections of the expected developments in the agri-food markets for their decision-making processes. The EU Commission presents such projections for the EU as a whole in December of each year. Those projections and their assumptions regarding policy and macroeconomic developments are depicted to the level of individual EU Member States with the exception of Luxembourg, which is included in the figures of Belgium, by applying the partial equilibrium model AGMEMOD. The working paper briefly describes the approach to establish projections for the EU Member States. The projections cover the markets of main agricultural products, in particular for cereals and oilseeds (rapeseed and sunflower seed), livestock (cattle, pigs, goats and sheep), meat (beef, pork, and poultry), milk and dairy products (drinking milk, butter, cheese, skimmed milk powder, whole milk and semiskimmed milk powder). The outcomes comprise items like areas, livestock numbers, yields, production, trade and use, as well as prices. The individual projection results are displayed in tables

Longitudinal microbiome investigation throughout prion disease course reveals pre- and symptomatic compositional perturbations linked to short-chain fatty acid metabolism and cognitive impairment in mice

Commensal intestinal bacteria shape our microbiome and have decisive roles in preserving host metabolic and immune homeostasis. They conspicuously impact disease development and progression, including amyloid-beta (Aβ) and alpha (α)-synuclein pathology in neurodegenerative diseases, conveying the importance of the brain–gut–microbiome axis in such conditions. However, little is known about the longitudinal microbiome landscape and its potential clinical implications in other protein misfolding disorders, such as prion disease. We investigated the microbiome architecture throughout prion disease course in mice. Fecal specimens were assessed by 16S ribosomal RNA sequencing. We report a temporal microbiome signature in prion disease and uncovered alterations in Lachnospiraceae, Ruminococcaceae, Desulfovibrionaceae, and Muribaculaceae family members in this disease. Moreover, we determined the enrichment of Bilophila, a microorganism connected to cognitive impairment, long before the clinical manifestation of disease symptoms. Based on temporal microbial abundances, several associated metabolic pathways and resulting metabolites, including short-chain fatty acids, were linked to the disease. We propose that neuroinflammatory processes relate to perturbations of the intestinal microbiome and metabolic state by an interorgan brain–gut crosstalk. Furthermore, we describe biomarkers possibly suitable for early disease diagnostics and anti-prion therapy monitoring. While our study is confined to prion disease, our discoveries might be of equivalent relevance in other proteinopathies and central nervous system pathologies

Risk assessment of aflatoxins in food

© 2020 European Food Safety Authority. EFSA Journal published by John Wiley and Sons Ltd on behalf of European Food Safety Authority.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Annexes to the Update of the risk assessment of nickel in food and drinking water

Annex A – Benchmark dose analysis The Annex is provided as a separate pdf file containing the detailed results of the benchmark dose analyses from which no reference point was selected. Annex B – Dietary surveys per country and age group available in the EFSA Comprehensive Database, considered in the exposure assessment The Annex is provided as a separate Excel file containing the dietary surveys per country and age group. Annex C – Occurrence data on nickel in food and drinking water The Annex is provided as a separate Excel file containing summary statistics on occurrence data on nickel. Annex D – Chronic and acute dietary exposure to nickel and the contribution of different food groups to the dietary exposure The Annex is provided as a separate Excel file containing the chronic and acute dietary exposure to nickel per survey and the contribution of different food groups to the dietary exposure.Peer reviewe

Multidisciplinary consensus on screening for, diagnosis and management of fetal growth restriction in the Netherlands

Screening for, diagnosis and management of intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) is often performed in multidisciplinary collaboration. However, variation in screening methods, diagnosis and management of IUGR may lead to confusion. In the Netherlands two monodisciplinary guidelines on IUGR do not fully align. To facilitate effective collaboration between different professionals in perinatal care, we undertook a Delphi study with uniform recommendations as our primary result, focusing on issues that are not aligned or for which specifications are lacking in the current guidelines. We conducted a Delphi study in three rounds. A purposively sampled selection of 56 panellists participated: 27 representing midwife-led care and 29 obstetrician-led care. Consensus was defined as agreement between the professional groups on the same answer and among at least 70% of the panellists within groups. Per round 51 or 52 (91% - 93%) panellists responded. This has led to consensus on 27 issues, leading to four consensus based recommendations on screening for IUGR in midwife-led care and eight consensus based recommendations on diagnosis and eight on management in obstetrician-led care. The multidisciplinary project group decided on four additional recommendations as no consensus was reached by the panel. No recommendations could be made about induction of labour versus expectant monitoring, nor about the choice for a primary caesarean section. We reached consensus on recommendations for care for IUGR within a multidisciplinary panel. These will be implemented in a study on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of routine third trimester ultrasound for monitoring fetal growth. Research is needed to evaluate the effects of implementation of these recommendations on perinatal outcomes. NTR436

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress