Using Simulation to Compare Established and Emerging Interventions to Reduce Cardiovascular Disease Risk in the United States

IntroductionComputer simulation offers the ability to compare diverse interventions for reducing cardiovascular disease risks in a controlled and systematic way that cannot be done in the real world.MethodsWe used the Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM) to analyze the effect of 50 intervention levers, grouped into 6 (2 x 3) clusters on the basis of whether they were established or emerging and whether they acted in the policy domains of care (clinical, mental health, and behavioral services), air (smoking, secondhand smoke, and air pollution), or lifestyle (nutrition and physical activity). Uncertainty ranges were established through probabilistic sensitivity analysis.ResultsResults indicate that by 2040, all 6 intervention clusters combined could result in cumulative reductions of 49% to 54% in the cardiovascular risk-related death rate and of 13% to 21% in risk factor-attributable costs. A majority of the death reduction would come from Established interventions, but Emerging interventions would also contribute strongly. A slim majority of the cost reduction would come from Emerging interventions.ConclusionPRISM allows public health officials to examine the potential influence of different types of interventions — both established and emerging — for reducing cardiovascular risks. Our modeling suggests that established interventions could still contribute much to reducing deaths and costs, especially through greater use of well-known approaches to preventive and acute clinical care, whereas emerging interventions have the potential to contribute significantly, especially through certain types of preventive care and improved nutrition

Community-Based Interventions to Decrease Obesity and Tobacco Exposure and Reduce Health Care Costs: Outcome Estimates From Communities Putting Prevention to Work for 2010–2020

INTRODUCTION: In 2010, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) launched Communities Putting Prevention to Work (CPPW), a $485 million program to reduce obesity, tobacco use, and exposure to secondhand smoke. CPPW awardees implemented evidence-based policy, systems, and environmental changes to sustain reductions in chronic disease risk factors. This article describes short-term and potential long-term benefits of the CPPW investment. METHODS: We used a mixed-methods approach to estimate population reach and to simulate the effects of completed CPPW interventions through 2020. Each awardee developed a community action plan. We linked plan objectives to a common set of interventions across awardees and estimated population reach as an early indicator of impact. We used the Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM), a systems dynamics model of cardiovascular disease prevention, to simulate premature deaths, health care costs, and productivity losses averted from 2010 through 2020 attributable to CPPW. RESULTS: Awardees completed 73$2.4 billion (in 2010 dollars) in discounted direct medical costs, and $9.5 billion (in 2010 dollars) in discounted lifetime and annual productivity losses through 2020. CONCLUSION: PRISM results suggest that large investments in community preventive interventions, if sustained, could yield cost savings many times greater than the original investment over 10 to 20 years and avert 14,000 premature deaths

Costs of Chronic Diseases at the State Level: The Chronic Disease Cost Calculator

IntroductionMany studies have estimated national chronic disease costs, but state-level estimates are limited. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention developed the Chronic Disease Cost Calculator (CDCC), which estimates state-level costs for arthritis, asthma, cancer, congestive heart failure, coronary heart disease, hypertension, stroke, other heart diseases, depression, and diabetes.MethodsUsing publicly available and restricted secondary data from multiple national data sets from 2004 through 2008, disease-attributable annual per-person medical and absenteeism costs were estimated. Total state medical and absenteeism costs were derived by multiplying per person costs from regressions by the number of people in the state treated for each disease. Medical costs were estimated for all payers and separately for Medicaid, Medicare, and private insurers. Projected medical costs for all payers (2010 through 2020) were calculated using medical costs and projected state population counts.ResultsMedian state-specific medical costs ranged from $410 million (asthma) to$1.8 billion (diabetes); median absenteeism costs ranged from $5 million (congestive heart failure) to$217 million (arthritis).ConclusionCDCC provides methodologically rigorous chronic disease cost estimates. These estimates highlight possible areas of cost savings achievable through targeted prevention efforts or research into new interventions and treatments

Ridinilazole: A novel therapy for Clostridium difficile infection

Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is the leading cause of infectious healthcare-associated diarrhoea. Recurrent CDI increases disease morbidity and mortality, posing a high burden to patients and a growing economic burden to the healthcare system. Thus, there exists a significant unmet and increasing medical need for new therapies for CDI. This review aims to provide a concise summary of CDI in general and a specific update on ridinilazole (formerly SMT19969), a novel antibacterial currently under development for the treatment of CDI. Owing to its highly targeted spectrum of activity and ability to spare the normal gut microbiota, ridinilazole provides significant advantages over metronidazole and vancomycin, the mainstay antibiotics for CDI. Ridinilazole is bactericidal against . C. difficile and exhibits a prolonged post-antibiotic effect. Furthermore, treatment with ridinilazole results in decreased toxin production. A phase 1 trial demonstrated that oral ridinilazole is well tolerated and specifically targets clostridia whilst sparing other faecal bacteria. Phase 2 and 3 trials will hopefully further our understanding of the clinical utility of ridinilazole for the treatment of CDI

State-level medical and absenteeism cost of asthma in the United States

<p><i>Objective:</i> For medically treated asthma, we estimated prevalence, medical and absenteeism costs, and projected medical costs from 2015 to 2020 for the entire population and separately for children in the 50 US states and District of Columbia (DC) using the most recently available data. <i>Methods:</i> We used multiple data sources, including the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, U.S. Census Bureau, Kaiser Family Foundation, Medical Statistical Information System, and Current Population Survey. We used a two-part regression model to estimate annual medical costs of asthma and a negative binomial model to estimate annual school and work days missed due to asthma. <i>Results:</i> Per capita medical costs of asthma ranged from $1,860 (Mississippi) to$2,514 (Michigan). Total medical costs of asthma ranged from $60.7 million (Wyoming) to$3.4 billion (California). Medicaid costs ranged from $4.1 million (Wyoming) to$566.8 million (California), Medicare from $5.9 million (DC) to$446.6 million (California), and costs paid by private insurers ranged from $27.2 million (DC) to$1.4 billion (California). Total annual school and work days lost due to asthma ranged from 22.4 thousand (Wyoming) to 1.5 million days (California) and absenteeism costs ranged from $4.4 million (Wyoming) to$345 million (California). Projected increase in medical costs from 2015 to 2020 ranged from 9% (DC) to 34% (Arizona). <i>Conclusion:</i> Medical and absenteeism costs of asthma represent a significant economic burden for states and these costs are expected to rise. Our study results emphasize the urgency for strategies to strengthen state level efforts to prevent and control asthma attacks.</p

Simulating and Evaluating Local Interventions to Improve Cardiovascular Health

Numerous local interventions for cardiovascular disease are available, but resources to deliver them are limited. Identifying the most effective interventions is challenging because cardiovascular risks develop through causal pathways and gradual accumulations that defy simple calculation. We created a simulation model for evaluating multiple approaches to preventing and managing cardiovascular risks. The model incorporates data from many sources to represent all US adults who have never had a cardiovascular event. It simulates trajectories for the leading direct and indirect risk factors from 1990 to 2040 and evaluates 19 interventions. The main outcomes are first-time cardiovascular events and consequent deaths, as well as total consequence costs, which combine medical expenditures and productivity costs associated with cardiovascular events and risk factors. We used sensitivity analyses to examine the significance of uncertain parameters. A base case scenario shows that population turnover and aging strongly influence the future trajectories of several risk factors. At least 15 of 19 interventions are potentially cost saving and could reduce deaths from first cardiovascular events by approximately 20% and total consequence costs by 26%. Some interventions act quickly to reduce deaths, while others more gradually reduce costs related to risk factors. Although the model is still evolving, the simulated experiments reported here can inform policy and spending decisions