Earthquakes and active tectonics of the South Caspian region, Central Asia

The study of earthquakes and active faulting is vitally important at multiple scales. At a local level, analysis of past earthquakes and surface ruptures provides insight and source parameters that are critically important for effective seismic hazard assessment. More regionally, understanding characteristic earthquakes and active faulting helps reveal plate tectonic motion that influences deformation and sedimentation. Globally, as populations have expanded the number of people effected by earthquakes and active faulting has increased. By working in regions where environmental conditions allow earthquake and active fault signals to be well preserved, insight into fundamental earthquake rupture processes and complex rupture patterns can be gained. I investigate single complex events, such as the 1948 Ashgabat M 7.3 earthquake, using a combination of seismic and geomorphic data. I find that this is one of the most devastating earthquakes in the 20th Century occurring on a secondary active fault with a complicated rupture. From analysis of digitised seismograms, the earthquake had a strike-slip focal mechanism and had a hypocentroidal depth of 12 km. I examine geomorphic displacements and identify active faults in Ashgabat using high resolution satellite imagery. After reviewing historical records, imagery and rupture maps, I determine that the earthquake did not rupture the main tectonic fault (Main Kopeh Dagh Fault) in the region, but a secondary right-lateral strike-slip fault southeast of Ashgabat. Further west from Ashgabat, I look to use our understanding of active faulting to help constrain regional landscape evolution and paleoclimate signals. I investigate geomorphic displacements and stratigraphy along the Main Kopeh Dagh Fault and in the east Caspian lowlands. I build the first late-Quaternary stratigraphy in the Turkmen Kopeh Dagh and east Caspian lowlands, observing five different generations of alluvial fan deposits. I recalculate the geologic slip-rate on the Main Kopeh Dagh Fault to 9.2 ± 1.5 mm/yr and develop a new method that uses measurements of offset drainage channels and the geologic slip-rate to constrain the timing of alluvial fan incision. I find clusters of drainage channel displacements that I date, using the slip-rates, at 2 – 3 ka, 3 – 4 ka, 8 – 12 ka, 24 – 33 ka, 38 – 52 ka, 56 – 78 ka and 94 – 130 ka. I interpret these special and temporal clusters as periods on heightened incision, providing insights into the regional environment during the Holocene and late-Pleistocene. On the west and northwest margins of the South Caspian Basin I provide the first robust geomorphic evidence for active right-lateral strike-slip faulting. The Shirvan fault is one of several parallel to sub-parallel strands showing several right-laterally deflected stream channels and follows mud volcano alignments. I show that mud volcanoes predominately occur at fault bends and anticlinal folding along fault traces. By mapping the mud volcano distribution and alignment I estimate the total length of the fault at ~ 150 km. I estimate the slip-rate at 3.9 - 4.8 mm/yr based on a displaced terrace riser of assumed age. Two paleoseismic trenches reveal between four and six surface rupturing events. Quaternary dating constrains these events to the last 3000 years, and therefore an average recurrence of 500 – 750 years. From earthquake scaling relationships I expect rupture of the entire fault length to produce Mw 7.5 events with average slip of 3 m, which is consistent with the smaller lateral offsets (2-3 m) that I identify in imagery. However, a lack of historical earthquakes combined with inferences on fault behaviour within the fluid-rich Kura basin sediments leads to speculation that the ruptures may represent aseismic slip events. The Shirvan and adjacent strike-slip faults play an important role in accommodating tectonic plate motion at the margin of the South Caspian Basin, presenting a significant seismic hazard for communities and infrastructure in the vicinity

“New” manufacturing industry: the development area factory

This thesis considers the industrial aspects of regional policy, in particular the concept of transferring work to the workers. An in depth study, based in the North-East of England, analyses in detail two "new" factories. These factories are studied in terms of the demands made by groups of managers and employees of their employment. These demands are analysed, both through the working agreement, and a categorisation of 'types' of employee and groups of managers. The rational behind such a study is as follows. Links are drawn between the concept of transferring work to the workers and the ideology of "pluralism". It is suggested that the industrial aspects of regional planning have their basis in a pluralist definition of, and solution to the regional problem. Also it is outlined that this pluralist base results in a failure to consider or investigate the details of "new" manufacturing plants. It is assumed by policy makers that "new" industry will solve the regional problem. To rectify such a failing this study of two "new" plants is carried out. Several tentative conclusions suggest criticisms of the simplistic pluralist approach to "new" manufacturing employment. Doubt is also cast upon the accuracy of the pluralist definition of the regional problem

The Labour Market Impact of the Run on Northern Rock: Continuity and Evolution in an old Industrial Region

The Northern Rock mortgage bank was a high profile casualty of the credit crunch in 2007. A longitudinal investigation focused on the redundancy and resettlement of employees at the bank provides a case study of the labour market impact of the banking crisis on the North East of England. An evolutionary geographical political economy approach indicates that Northern RockÕs growth and decline was shaped by its location in an old industrial region, and echoes the historical position of the peripheral region in the spatial division of labour. The Northern Rock case highlights the enduring occupational structure of the regionÕs labour market, and suggests older industrial regions may suffer from a process of Ôoccupational disadvantageÕ that restricts their ability to adapt to economic change.Financial crisis, Northern Rock, Labour market impact, Evolutionary geographical political economy

Reviews

The following publications have been reviewed by the mentioned authors;Getting Things Right Design and Realization by Adrian Marden, reviewed by Michael RobertsVisual Messages: An Introduction to Graphics by C. J. Breckon, L. J. Jones and C. E. Moorhouse, reviewed by John BaleErgonomics in the Computerized Office by Etienne Grandjean, reviewed by T. LawleyTeaching GCSE Craft, Design and Technology by David Rees, reviewed by Brian OppenheimComputers at Work by H. Scott, B. Frost, S. Alexander and G. Bowie, reviewed by S.R. St. J. NeillScience Report for Teachers: 10 Metals at age 15, reviewed by David BarlexThe Anti-Colouring Book by Susan Striker & Edward Kimmel, reviewed by Marshall HughesUnderstanding and Using Technology by A. Todd, C. McRory and D. Todd, reviewed by David Perry

Correlations in Two-Dimensional Vortex Liquids

We report on a high temperature perturbation expansion study of the superfluid-density spatial correlation function of a Ginzburg-Landau-model superconducting film in a magnetic field. We have derived a closed form which expresses the contribution to the correlation function from each graph of the perturbation theory in terms of the number of Euler paths around appropriate subgraphs. We have enumerated all graphs appearing out to 10-th order in the expansion and have evaluated their contributions to the correlation function. Low temperature correlation functions, obtained using Pad\'{e} approximants, are in good agreement with Monte Carlo simulation results and show that the vortex-liquid becomes strongly correlated at temperatures well above the vortex solidification temperature.Comment: 18 pages (RevTeX 3.0) and 4 figures, available upon request, IUCM93-01

Surface rupturing earthquakes of the Greater Caucasus frontal thrusts, Azerbaijan

Here we present the results of the first paleoseismic study of the Kura fold-thrust belt in Azerbaijan based on field mapping, fault trenching, and Quaternary dating. Convergence at rates of ∼10 mm/yr between the Arabian and Eurasian Plates is largely accommodated by the Kura fold-thrust belt which stretches between central Azerbaijan and Georgia along the southern front of the Greater Caucasus (45–48°E). Although destructive historic earthquakes are known here, little is known about the active faults responsible for these earthquakes. A paleoseismic trench was excavated across a 2-m-high fault scarp near Agsu revealing evidence of two surface rupturing earthquakes. Radiocarbon dating of the faulted sediments limits the earthquake timing to AD 1713–1895 and AD 1872–2003. Allowing for uncertainties in dating, the two events likely correspond to historical destructive M ∼ 7 earthquakes near Shamakhi, Azerbaijan in AD 1668 and 1902. A second trench 60 km west of Agsu was excavated near Goychay also revealing evidence of at least one event that occurred 334–118 BC. Holocene shortening and dip-slip rates for the Kura fold-thrust belt are ∼8.0 and 8.5 mm/yr, respectively, based on an uplifted strath terrace west of Agsu. The only known historical devastating (M > ∼7) earthquakes in the Kura region, west of Shamakhi, occurred in 1139 and possibly 1668. The lack of reported historical ruptures from the past 4–8 centuries in the Kura, in contrast with the numerous recorded destructive earthquakes in Shamakhi, suggests that the Kura fold-thrust belt may have accumulated sufficient strain to produce a M > 7.7 earthquake

GONADOTROPHIN RESPONSES TO GnRH PULSES IN HYPOGONADOTROPHIC HYPOGONADISM: LH RESPONSIVENESS IS MAINTAINED IN THE PRESENCE OF LUTEAL PHASE CONCENTRATIONS OF OESTROGEN AND PROGESTERONE

LH pulse secretion changes during the menstrual cycle from a rapid regular pattern in the follicular phase to a slower and irregular pattern in the luteal phase. To determine whether the irregular LH pulse pattern in the luteal phase reflects altered GnRH secretion or altered pituitary responsiveness to GnRH, we gave low dose GnRH pulses (25 ng/kg i.v.) every 2 h or every hour for 10 or 12 d to three women with isolated GnRH deficiency. After 4 d of GnRH alone, oestradiol (E 2 ) was given and after 6 d progesterone (P) was added to mimic the hormonal milieu of the luteal phase. LH and FSH were measured every 4 h throughout and also every 20 min for 6 or 12 h, before and after GnRH alone (day 0 and day 4), after E 2 (day 6), and after E 2 + P (day 10 and day 12). Both GnRH pulse frequencies resulted in a rapid increase in plasma FSH to peaks on day 4 (every 2 h) and day 2 and 3 (every hour). FSH concentrations then declined as plasma E 2 rose to 50–80 pg/ml reflecting the selective inhibitory effect of E 2 on FSH release. Plasma LH was also increased after the hourly GnRH injections and this regimen was associated with a more rapid rise in E 2 reflecting follicular maturation. In contrast to the differences in mean hormone concentrations, administration of GnRH at both frequencies resulted in sustained one-on-one responsiveness of LH that was maintained in the presence of both oestrogen and progesterone at mid-luteal phase concentrations. We conclude that the slow frequency of LH pulses observed during the luteal phase reflects decreased GnRH pulse frequency rather than impaired pituitary responsiveness to GnRH.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/74947/1/j.1365-2265.1987.tb00786.x.pd

Landscape-scale drivers of glacial ecosystem change in the montane forests of the eastern Andean flank, Ecuador

Understanding the impact of landscape-scale disturbance events during the last glacial period is vital in accu- rately reconstructing the ecosystem dynamics of montane environments. Here, a sedimentary succession from the tropical montane cloud forest of the eastern Andean flank of Ecuador provides evidence of the role of non- climate drivers of vegetation change (volcanic events, fire regime and herbivory) during the late-Pleistocene. Multiproxy analysis (pollen, non-pollen palynomorphs, charcoal, geochemistry and carbon content) of the se- diments, radiocarbon dated to ca. 45–42 ka, provide a snap shot of the depositional environment, vegetation community and non-climate drivers of ecosystem dynamics. The geomorphology of the Vinillos study area, along with the organic‐carbon content, and aquatic remains suggest deposition took place near a valley floor in a swamp or shallow water environment. The pollen assemblage initially composed primarily of herbaceous types (Poaceae-Asteraceae-Solanaceae) is replaced by assemblages characterised by Andean forest taxa, (first Melastomataceae-Weinmannia-Ilex, and later, Alnus-Hedyosmum-Myrica). The pollen assemblages have no modern analogues in the tropical montane cloud forest of Ecuador. High micro-charcoal and rare macro-charcoal abundances co-occur with volcanic tephra deposits suggesting transportation from extra-local regions and that volcanic eruptions were an important source of ignition in the wider glacial landscape. The presence of the coprophilous fungi Sporormiella reveals the occurrence of herbivores in the glacial montane forest landscape. Pollen analysis indicates a stable regional vegetation community, with changes in vegetation population co- varying with large volcanic tephra deposits suggesting that the structure of glacial vegetation at Vinillos was driven by volcanic activity

Gravitationally lensed quasars and supernovae in future wide-field optical imaging surveys

Cadenced optical imaging surveys in the next decade will be capable of detecting time-varying galaxy-scale strong gravitational lenses in large numbers, increasing the size of the statistically well-defined samples of multiply-imaged quasars by two orders of magnitude, and discovering the first strongly-lensed supernovae. We carry out a detailed calculation of the likely yields of several planned surveys, using realistic distributions for the lens and source properties and taking magnification bias and image configuration detectability into account. We find that upcoming wide-field synoptic surveys should detect several thousand lensed quasars. In particular, the LSST should find 8000 lensed quasars, 3000 of which will have well-measured time delays, and also ~130 lensed supernovae, which is compared with ~15 lensed supernovae predicted to be found by the JDEM. We predict the quad fraction to be ~15% for the lensed quasars and ~30% for the lensed supernovae. Generating a mock catalogue of around 1500 well-observed double-image lenses, we compute the available precision on the Hubble constant and the dark energy equation parameters for the time delay distance experiment (assuming priors from Planck): the predicted marginalised 68% confidence intervals are \sigma(w_0)=0.15, \sigma(w_a)=0.41, and \sigma(h)=0.017. While this is encouraging in the sense that these uncertainties are only 50% larger than those predicted for a space-based type-Ia supernova sample, we show how the dark energy figure of merit degrades with decreasing knowledge of the the lens mass distribution. (Abridged)Comment: 17 pages, 10 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication in MNRAS; mock LSST lens catalogue may be available at http://kipac-prod.stanford.edu/collab/research/lensing/mocklen

First-year Sloan Digital Sky Survey-II (SDSS-II) Supernova Results: Hubble Diagram and Cosmological Parameters

We present measurements of the Hubble diagram for 103 Type Ia supernovae (SNe) with redshifts 0.04 < z < 0.42, discovered during the first season (Fall 2005) of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey-II (SDSS-II) Supernova Survey. These data fill in the redshift "desert" between low- and high-redshift SN Ia surveys. We combine the SDSS-II measurements with new distance estimates for published SN data from the ESSENCE survey, the Supernova Legacy Survey, the Hubble Space Telescope, and a compilation of nearby SN Ia measurements. Combining the SN Hubble diagram with measurements of Baryon Acoustic Oscillations from the SDSS Luminous Red Galaxy sample and with CMB temperature anisotropy measurements from WMAP, we estimate the cosmological parameters w and Omega_M, assuming a spatially flat cosmological model (FwCDM) with constant dark energy equation of state parameter, w. For the FwCDM model and the combined sample of 288 SNe Ia, we find w = -0.76 +- 0.07(stat) +- 0.11(syst), Omega_M = 0.306 +- 0.019(stat) +- 0.023(syst) using MLCS2k2 and w = -0.96 +- 0.06(stat) +- 0.12(syst), Omega_M = 0.265 +- 0.016(stat) +- 0.025(syst) using the SALT-II fitter. We trace the discrepancy between these results to a difference in the rest-frame UV model combined with a different luminosity correction from color variations; these differences mostly affect the distance estimates for the SNLS and HST supernovae. We present detailed discussions of systematic errors for both light-curve methods and find that they both show data-model discrepancies in rest-frame $U$-band. For the SALT-II approach, we also see strong evidence for redshift-dependence of the color-luminosity parameter (beta). Restricting the analysis to the 136 SNe Ia in the Nearby+SDSS-II samples, we find much better agreement between the two analysis methods but with larger uncertainties.Comment: Accepted for publication by ApJ