hp-adaptive Galerkin Time Stepping Methods for Nonlinear Initial Value Problems

This work is concerned with the derivation of an a posteriori error estimator for Galerkin approximations to nonlinear initial value problems with an emphasis on finite-time existence in the context of blow-up. The structure of the derived estimator leads naturally to the development of both h and hp versions of an adaptive algorithm designed to approximate the blow-up time. The adaptive algorithms are then applied in a series of numerical experiments, and the rate of convergence to the blow-up time is investigated

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

In Depth Characterization of Repetitive DNA in 23 Plant Genomes Reveals Sources of Genome Size Variation in the Legume Tribe Fabeae

The differential accumulation and elimination of repetitive DNA are key drivers of genome size variation in flowering plants, yet there have been few studies which have analysed how different types of repeats in related species contribute to genome size evolution within a phylogenetic context. This question is addressed here by conducting large-scale comparative analysis of repeats in 23 species from four genera of the monophyletic legume tribe Fabeae, representing a 7.6-fold variation in genome size. Phylogenetic analysis and genome size reconstruction revealed that this diversity arose from genome size expansions and contractions in different lineages during the evolution of Fabeae. Employing a combination of low-pass genome sequencing with novel bioinformatic approaches resulted in identification and quantification of repeats making up 55-83% of the investigated genomes. In turn, this enabled an analysis of how each major repeat type contributed to the genome size variation encountered. Differential accumulation of repetitive DNA was found to account for 85% of the genome size differences between the species, and most (57%) of this variation was found to be driven by a single lineage of Ty3/gypsy LTR-retrotransposons, the Ogre elements. Although the amounts of several other lineages of LTR-retrotransposons and the total amount of satellite DNA were also positively correlated with genome size, their contributions to genome size variation were much smaller (up to 6%). Repeat analysis within a phylogenetic framework also revealed profound differences in the extent of sequence conservation between different repeat types across Fabeae. In addition to these findings, the study has provided a proof of concept for the approach combining recent developments in sequencing and bioinformatics to perform comparative analyses of repetitive DNAs in a large number of non-model species without the need to assemble their genomes

The evolutionary significance of polyploidy

Polyploidy, or the duplication of entire genomes, has been observed in prokaryotic and eukaryotic organisms, and in somatic and germ cells. The consequences of polyploidization are complex and variable, and they differ greatly between systems (clonal or non-clonal) and species, but the process has often been considered to be an evolutionary 'dead end'. Here, we review the accumulating evidence that correlates polyploidization with environmental change or stress, and that has led to an increased recognition of its short-term adaptive potential. In addition, we discuss how, once polyploidy has been established, the unique retention profile of duplicated genes following whole-genome duplication might explain key longer-term evolutionary transitions and a general increase in biological complexity

Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3.5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers.Peer reviewe