Market forces influence helping behaviour in cooperatively breeding paper wasps

This is the final version of the article. Available from Nature Publishing Group via the DOI in this record.Biological market theory is potentially useful for understanding helping behaviour in animal societies. It predicts that competition for trading partners will affect the value of commodities exchanged. It has gained empirical support in cooperative breeders, where subordinates help dominant breeders in exchange for group membership, but so far without considering one crucial aspect: outside options. We find support for a biological market in paper wasps, Polistes dominula. We first show that females have a choice of cooperative partners. Second, by manipulating entire subpopulations in the field, we increase the supply of outside options for subordinates, freeing up suitable nesting spots and providing additional nesting partners. We predicted that by intensifying competition for help, our manipulation would force dominants to accept a lower price for group membership. As expected, subordinates reduce their foraging effort following our treatments. We conclude that to accurately predict the amount of help provided, social units cannot be viewed in isolation: the surrounding market must also be considered.This work was funded by Natural Environment Research Council grant NE/K00655X/1 to J.F

Biological markets in cooperative breeders: quantifying outside options

This is the author's accepted manuscriptThe final version is available from The Royal Society via the DOI in this recordA major aim in evolutionary biology is to understand altruistic help and reproductive partitioning in cooperative societies, where subordinate helpers forego reproduction to rear dominant breeders' offspring. Traditional models of cooperation in these societies typically make a key assumption: that the only alternative to staying and helping is solitary breeding, an often unfeasible task. Using large-scale field experiments on paper wasps (Polistes dominula), we show that individuals have high-quality alternative nesting options available that offer fitness payoffs just as high as their actual chosen options, far exceeding payoffs from solitary breeding. Furthermore, joiners could not easily be replaced if they were removed experimentally, suggesting that it may be costly for dominants to reject them. Our results have implications for expected payoff distributions for cooperating individuals, and suggest that biological market theory, which incorporates partner choice and competition for partners, is necessary to understand helping behaviour in societies like that of P. dominula. Traditional models are likely to overestimate the incentive to stay and help, and therefore the amount of help provided, and may underestimate the size of reproductive concession required to retain subordinates. These findings are relevant for a wide range of cooperative breeders where there is dispersal between social groups.This work was funded by Natural Environment Research Council grant no. NE/K00655X/1 to J.F

Surface velocity of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS): assessment of interior velocities derived from satellite data by GPS

The Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS) extends around 600 km upstream from the coast to its onset near the ice divide in interior Greenland. Several maps of surface velocity and topography of interior Greenland exist, but their accuracy is not well constrained by in situ observations. Here we present the results from a GPS mapping of surface velocity in an area located approximately 150 km from the ice divide near the East Greenland Ice-core Project (EastGRIP) deep-drilling site. A GPS strain net consisting of 63 poles was established and observed over the years 2015–2019. The strain net covers an area of 35 km by 40 km, including both shear margins. The ice flows with a uniform surface speed of approximately 55 m a^−1 within a central flow band with longitudinal and transverse strain rates on the order of 10−4 a^−1 and increasing by an order of magnitude in the shear margins. We compare the GPS results to the Arctic Digital Elevation Model and a list of satellite-derived surface velocity products in order to evaluate these products. For each velocity product, we determine the bias in and precision of the velocity compared to the GPS observations, as well as the smoothing of the velocity products needed to obtain optimal precision. The best products have a bias and a precision of ∼0.5 m a^−1. We combine the GPS results with satellite-derived products and show that organized patterns in flow and topography emerge in NEGIS when the surface velocity exceeds approximately 55 m a−1 and are related to bedrock topography

Metabolism of the viable mammalian embryo: quietness revisited

This review examines the ‘Quiet Embryo Hypothesis’ which proposes that viable preimplantation embryos operate at metabolite or nutrient turnover rates distributed within lower ranges than those of their less viable counterparts. The ‘quieter’ metabolism consistent with this hypothesis is considered in terms of (i) ‘functional’ quietness; the contrasting levels of intrinsic metabolic activity in different cell types as a consequence of their specialized functions, (ii) inter-individual embryo/cell differences in metabolism and (iii) loss of quietness in response to environmental stress. Data are reviewed which indicate that gametes and early embryos function in vivo at a lower temperature than core body temperature, which could encourage the expression of a quiet metabolism. We call for research to determine the optimum temperature for mammalian gamete/embryo culture. The review concludes by examining the key role of reactive oxygen species, which can induce molecular damage, trigger a cellular stress response and lead to a loss of quietness

Evidence for solar cycles in a late Holocene speleothem record from Dongge Cave, China

The association between solar activity and Asian monsoon (AM) remains unclear. Here we evaluate the possible connection between them based on a precisely-dated, high-resolution speleothem oxygen isotope record from Dongge Cave, southwest China during the past 4.2 thousand years (ka). Without being adjusted chronologically to the solar signal, our record shows a distinct peak-to-peak correlation with cosmogenic nuclide 14C, total solar irradiance (TSI) and sunspot number (SN) at multi-decadal to centennial timescales. Further cross-wavelet analyses between our calcite δ18O and atmospheric 14C show statistically strong coherence at three typical periodicities of ~80, 200 and 340 years, suggesting important roles of solar activities in modulating AM changes at those timescales. Our result has further indicated a better correlation between our calcite δ18O record and atmospheric 14C than between our record and TSI. This better correlation may imply that the Sun–monsoon connection is dominated most likely by cosmic rays and oceanic circulation (both associated to atmospheric 14C), instead of the direct solar heating (TSI)

Fulvestrant 500 mg versus anastrozole 1 mg for hormone receptor-positive advanced breast cancer (FALCON): an international, randomised, double-blind, phase 3 trial

Background Aromatase inhibitors are a standard of care for hormone receptor-positive locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer. We investigated whether the selective oestrogen receptor degrader fulvestrant could improve progression-free survival compared with anastrozole in postmenopausal patients who had not received previous endocrine therapy. Methods In this phase 3, randomised, double-blind trial, we recruited eligible patients with histologically confirmed oestrogen receptor-positive or progesterone receptor-positive, or both, locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer from 113 academic hospitals and community centres in 20 countries. Eligible patients were endocrine therapy-naive, with WHO performance status 0–2, and at least one measurable or non-measurable lesion. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to fulvestrant (500 mg intramuscular injection; on days 0, 14, 28, then every 28 days thereafter) or anastrozole (1 mg orally daily) using a computer-generated randomisation scheme. The primary endpoint was progression-free survival, determined by Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors version 1·1, intervention by surgery or radiotherapy because of disease deterioration, or death from any cause, assessed in the intention-to-treat population. Safety outcomes were assessed in all patients who received at least one dose of randomised treatment (including placebo). This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01602380. Findings Between Oct 17, 2012, and July 11, 2014, 524 patients were enrolled to this study. Of these, 462 patients were randomised (230 to receive fulvestrant and 232 to receive anastrozole). Progression-free survival was significantly longer in the fulvestrant group than in the anastrozole group (hazard ratio [HR] 0·797, 95% CI 0·637–0·999, p=0·0486). Median progression-free survival was 16·6 months (95% CI 13·83–20·99) in the fulvestrant group versus 13·8 months (11·99–16·59) in the anastrozole group. The most common adverse events were arthralgia (38 [17%] in the fulvestrant group vs 24 [10%] in the anastrozole group) and hot flushes (26 [11%] in the fulvestrant group vs 24 [10%] in the anastrozole group). 16 (7%) of 228 patients in in the fulvestrant group and 11 (5%) of 232 patients in the anastrozole group discontinued because of adverse events. Interpretation Fulvestrant has superior efficacy and is a preferred treatment option for patients with hormone receptor-positive locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer who have not received previous endocrine therapy compared with a third-generation aromatase inhibitor, a standard of care for first-line treatment of these patients

Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis

One of the main consequences of mean sea level rise (SLR) on human settlements is an increase in flood risk due to an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme sea levels (ESL). While substantial research efforts are directed towards quantifying projections and uncertainties of future global and regional SLR, corresponding uncertainties in contemporary ESL have not been assessed and projections are limited. Here we quantify, for the first time at global scale, the uncertainties in present-day ESL estimates, which have by default been ignored in broad-scale sea-level rise impact assessments to date. ESL uncertainties exceed those from global SLR projections and, assuming that we meet the Paris agreement goals, the projected SLR itself by the end of the century in many regions. Both uncertainties in SLR projections and ESL estimates need to be understood and combined to fully assess potential impacts and adaptation needs

Extending the fabric from the EGRIPice core in space with geophysicalmethods and modelling

Anisotropic crystal fabrics in ice sheets develop as a consequence of deformation and hence record information of past ice flow. Simultaneously, the fabric affects the present-day bulk mechanical properties of glacier ice because the susceptibility of ice crystals to deformation is highly anisotropic. This is particularly relevant in dynamic areas such as fast-flowing glaciers and ice streams, where the formation of strong fabrics might play a critical role in facilitating ice flow. Anisotropy is ignored in most state-of-the-art ice sheet models, and while its importance has long been recognized, accounting for fabric evolution and its impact on the ice viscosity has only recently become feasible. Both the application of such models to ice streams and their verification through in-situ observations are still rare. Ice cores provide direct and detailed information on the crystal fabric, but the logistical cost, technical challenges, particularly in fast-flowing ice and shear margins, difficulty in reconstructing the absolute orientation of the core, and their limitation of being a point measurement, make ice cores impractical for a spatially extensive evaluation of the fabric type. Indirect geophysical methods applied from or above the ice surface create the link between the small scale of laboratory experiments and ice–core observations to the large-scale coverage required for ice flow models and the complete understanding of ice stream dynamics. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis of the distribution of the ice fabric in the upstream part of the North-East Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS). Our results are based on a combination of methods applied to extensive airborne and ground-based radar surveys, ice- and firn-core observations, and numerical ice-flow modelling. They show that in the onset region of NEGIS and around the EGRIP ice core drilling site, the fabric is horizontally strongly anisotropic, forming a horizontal girdle perpendicular to the ice flow, while the horizontal anisotropy reduces quickly over distances of less than five ice thicknesses outside of the ice stream’s shear margins. Downstream of the drill site, the fabric develops into a more vertically symmetric configuration on a time scale of around 2 ka, the first observation of this kind. Our study shows how ice-core based fabric observations, geophysical surveys and ice-flow modelling complement each other to obtain a more comprehensive picture of the spatially strongly varying fabric

North Pacific twentieth century decadal-scale variability is unique for the past 342 years

Reconstructed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) derived from Mg/Ca measurements in nine encrusting coralline algal skeletons from the Aleutian archipelago in the northernmost Pacific Ocean reveal an overall increase in SST from 1665 to 2007. In the Aleutian SST reconstruction, decadal-scale variability is a transient feature present during the 1700s and early 1800s and then fully emerging post-1950. SSTs vary coherently with available instrument records of cyclone variance and vacillate in and out of coherence with multicentennial Pacific Northwest drought reconstructions as a response to SST-driven alterations of storm tracks reaching North America. These results indicate that an influence of decadal-scale variability on the North Pacific storm tracks only became apparent during the midtwentieth century. Furthermore, what has been assumed as natural variability in the North Pacific, based on twentieth century instrumental data, is not consistent with the long-term natural variability evident in reconstructed SSTs predating the anthropogenic influence