317 research outputs found

    Implications of Middle School Behavior Problems for High School Graduation and Employment Outcomes of Young Adults: Estimation of a Recursive Model

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    The potentially serious adverse impacts of behavior problems during adolescence on employment outcomes in adulthood provide a key economic rationale for early intervention programs. However, the extent to which lower educational attainment accounts for the total impact of adolescent behavior problems on later employment remains unclear As an initial step in exploring this issue, we specify and estimate a recursive bivariate probit model that 1) relates middle school behavior problems to high school graduation and 2) models later employment in young adulthood as a function of these behavior problems and of high school graduation. Our model thus allows for both a direct effect of behavior problems on later employment as well as an indirect effect that operates via graduation from high school. Our empirical results, based on analysis of data from the NELS, suggest that the direct effects of externalizing behavior problems on later employment are not significant but that these problems have important indirect effects operating through high school graduation.

    Transitions in Gambling Participation During Late Adolescence and Young Adulthood

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    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to examine transitions in gambling participation from late adolescence into emerging adulthood and to identify factors (i.e., gender, race, intervention status, lunch status, conduct disorder, parental monitoring, neighborhood environment, and substance use) that might influence these transitions. Methods: Markov modeling was used to describe the movement between past-year gambling states (i.e., nongambling and gambling) across 5 years. Annual data on the past-year gambling behavior and substance use were collected from 515 young men and women starting at the age of 17 years. Results: Past-year gambling declined from 51% prevalence at the age of 17 years to 21% prevalence at the age of 22 years. Participants who reported no past-year gambling at a particular annual assessment had more than an 80% probability of also reporting no past-year gambling at the following assessment. Men were 1.07–2.82 times more likely than women to transition from past-year nongambling to gambling year to year, and women were 1.27–5.26 times more likely than men to transition from past-year gambling to nongambling year to year. In addition, gender and past-year tobacco use interacted such that men who used tobacco were most likely (and men who did not use tobacco least likely) to gamble at baseline. Conclusions: Transition rates between gambling states appear to be relatively stable over time from late adolescence into emerging adulthood; however, men and those who engage in substance use may be at an increased risk of gambling participation

    Transitions in Gambling Participation During Late Adolescence and Young Adulthood

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    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to examine transitions in gambling participation from late adolescence into emerging adulthood and to identify factors (i.e., gender, race, intervention status, lunch status, conduct disorder, parental monitoring, neighborhood environment, and substance use) that might influence these transitions. Methods: Markov modeling was used to describe the movement between past-year gambling states (i.e., nongambling and gambling) across 5 years. Annual data on the past-year gambling behavior and substance use were collected from 515 young men and women starting at the age of 17 years. Results: Past-year gambling declined from 51% prevalence at the age of 17 years to 21% prevalence at the age of 22 years. Participants who reported no past-year gambling at a particular annual assessment had more than an 80% probability of also reporting no past-year gambling at the following assessment. Men were 1.07–2.82 times more likely than women to transition from past-year nongambling to gambling year to year, and women were 1.27–5.26 times more likely than men to transition from past-year gambling to nongambling year to year. In addition, gender and past-year tobacco use interacted such that men who used tobacco were most likely (and men who did not use tobacco least likely) to gamble at baseline. Conclusions: Transition rates between gambling states appear to be relatively stable over time from late adolescence into emerging adulthood; however, men and those who engage in substance use may be at an increased risk of gambling participation

    Satellite detection, long-range transport, and air quality impacts of volcanic sulfur dioxide from the 2014–2015 flood lava eruption at Bárðarbunga (Iceland)

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    The 2014–2015 Bárðarbunga-Veiðivötn fissure eruption at Holuhraun produced about 1.5 km3 of lava, making it the largest eruption in Iceland in more than 200 years. Over the course of the eruption, daily volcanic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions exceeded daily SO2 emissions from all anthropogenic sources in Europe in 2010 by at least a factor of 3. We present surface air quality observations from across Northern Europe together with satellite remote sensing data and model simulations of volcanic SO2 for September 2014. We show that volcanic SO2 was transported in the lowermost troposphere over long distances and detected by air quality monitoring stations up to 2750 km away from the source. Using retrievals from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI), we calculate an average daily SO2 mass burden of 99 ± 49 kilotons (kt) of SO2 from OMI and 61 ± 18 kt of SO2 from IASI for September 2014. This volcanic burden is at least a factor of 2 greater than the average SO2 mass burden between 2007 and 2009 due to anthropogenic emissions from the whole of Europe. Combining the observational data with model simulations using the United Kingdom Met Office's Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment model, we are able to constrain SO2 emission rates to up to 120 kilotons per day (kt/d) during early September 2014, followed by a decrease to 20–60 kt/d between 6 and 22 September 2014, followed by a renewed increase to 60–120 kt/d until the end of September 2014. Based on these fluxes, we estimate that the eruption emitted a total of 2.0 ± 0.6 Tg of SO2 during September 2014, in good agreement with ground-based remote sensing and petrological estimates. Although satellite-derived and model-simulated vertical column densities of SO2 agree well, the model simulations are biased low by up to a factor of 8 when compared to surface observations of volcanic SO2 on 6–7 September 2014 in Ireland. These biases are mainly due to relatively small horizontal and vertical positional errors in the simulations of the volcanic plume occurring over transport distances of thousands of kilometers. Although the volcanic air pollution episodes were transient and lava-dominated volcanic eruptions are sporadic events, the observations suggest that (i) during an eruption, volcanic SO2 measurements should be assimilated for near real-time air quality forecasting and (ii) existing air quality monitoring networks should be retained or extended to monitor SO2 and other volcanic pollutants

    The state of the Martian climate

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    60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes

    Child/Adolescent Anxiety Multimodal Study (CAMS): rationale, design, and methods

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    <p>Abstract</p> <p>Objective</p> <p>To present the design, methods, and rationale of the Child/Adolescent Anxiety Multimodal Study (CAMS), a recently completed federally-funded, multi-site, randomized placebo-controlled trial that examined the relative efficacy of cognitive-behavior therapy (CBT), sertraline (SRT), and their combination (COMB) against pill placebo (PBO) for the treatment of separation anxiety disorder (SAD), generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) and social phobia (SoP) in children and adolescents.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Following a brief review of the acute outcomes of the CAMS trial, as well as the psychosocial and pharmacologic treatment literature for pediatric anxiety disorders, the design and methods of the CAMS trial are described.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>CAMS was a six-year, six-site, randomized controlled trial. Four hundred eighty-eight (N = 488) children and adolescents (ages 7-17 years) with DSM-IV-TR diagnoses of SAD, GAD, or SoP were randomly assigned to one of four treatment conditions: CBT, SRT, COMB, or PBO. Assessments of anxiety symptoms, safety, and functional outcomes, as well as putative mediators and moderators of treatment response were completed in a multi-measure, multi-informant fashion. Manual-based therapies, trained clinicians and independent evaluators were used to ensure treatment and assessment fidelity. A multi-layered administrative structure with representation from all sites facilitated cross-site coordination of the entire trial, study protocols and quality assurance.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>CAMS offers a model for clinical trials methods applicable to psychosocial and psychopharmacological comparative treatment trials by using state-of-the-art methods and rigorous cross-site quality controls. CAMS also provided a large-scale examination of the relative and combined efficacy and safety of the best evidenced-based psychosocial (CBT) and pharmacologic (SSRI) treatments to date for the most commonly occurring pediatric anxiety disorders. Primary and secondary results of CAMS will hold important implications for informing practice-relevant decisions regarding the initial treatment of youth with anxiety disorders.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00052078.</p
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