Limits to solar cycle predictability: Cross-equatorial flux plumes

Within the Babcock-Leighton framework for the solar dynamo, the strength of a cycle is expected to depend on the strength of the dipole moment or net hemispheric flux during the preceding minimum, which depends on how much flux was present in each hemisphere at the start of the previous cycle and how much net magnetic flux was transported across the equator during the cycle. Some of this transport is associated with the random walk of magnetic flux tubes subject to granular and supergranular buffeting, some of it is due to the advection caused by systematic cross-equatorial flows such as those associated with the inflows into active regions, and some crosses the equator during the emergence process. We aim to determine how much of the cross-equatorial transport is due to small-scale disorganized motions (treated as diffusion) compared with other processes such as emergence flux across the equator. We measure the cross-equatorial flux transport using Kitt Peak synoptic magnetograms, estimating both the total and diffusive fluxes. Occasionally a large sunspot group, with a large tilt angle emerges crossing the equator, with flux from the two polarities in opposite hemispheres. The largest of these events carry a substantial amount of flux across the equator (compared to the magnetic flux near the poles). We call such events cross-equatorial flux plumes. There are very few such large events during a cycle, which introduces an uncertainty into the determination of the amount of magnetic flux transported across the equator in any particular cycle. As the amount of flux which crosses the equator determines the amount of net flux in each hemisphere, it follows that the cross-equatorial plumes introduce an uncertainty in the prediction of the net flux in each hemisphere. This leads to an uncertainty in predictions of the strength of the following cycle.Comment: A&A, accepte

Magnetic flux generation and transport in cool stars

The Sun and other cool stars harbouring outer convection zones manifest magnetic activity in their atmospheres. The connection between this activity and the properties of a deep-seated dynamo generating the magnetic flux is not well understood. By employing physical models, we study the spatial and temporal characteristics of the observable surface field for various stellar parameters. We combine models for magnetic flux generation, buoyancy instability, and transport, which encompass the entire convection zone. The model components are: (1) a thin-layer alpha-Omega dynamo at the base of the convection zone; (2) buoyancy instabilities and the rise of flux tubes through the convection zone in 3D, which provides a physically consistent determination of emergence latitudes and tilt angles; and (3) horizontal flux transport at the surface. For solar-type stars and rotation periods longer than about 10 days, the latitudinal dynamo waves generated by the deep-seated alpha-Omega dynamo are faithfully reflected by the surface distribution of magnetic flux. For rotation periods of the order of two days, however, Coriolis acceleration of rising flux loops leads to surface flux emergence at much higher latitudes than the dynamo waves at the bottom of the convection zone reach. A similar result is found for a K0V star with a rotation period of two days. In the case of a rapidly rotating K1 subgiant, overlapping dynamo waves lead to noisy activity cycles and mixed-polarity fields at high latitudes.Comment: 14 pages, 14 figures. Accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysic

Generalized four-point characterization method for resistive and capacitive contacts

In this paper, a four-point characterization method is developed for resistive samples connected to either resistive or capacitive contacts. Provided the circuit equivalent of the complete measurement system is known including coaxial cable and connector capacitances as well as source output and amplifier input impedances, a frequency range and capacitive scaling factor can be determined, whereby four-point characterization can be performed. The technique is demonstrated with a discrete element test sample over a wide frequency range using lock-in measurement techniques from 1 Hz - 100 kHz. The data fit well with a circuit simulation of the entire measurement system. A high impedance preamplifier input stage gives best results, since lock-in input impedances may differ from manufacturer specifications. The analysis presented here establishes the utility of capacitive contacts for four-point characterizations at low frequency.Comment: 21 pages, 10 figure

Cost analysis and related factors in patients with traumatic hand injury

The aim of this study was to measure the direct and indirect costs and factors influencing these costs in patients presenting following traumatic hand injury. We assessed patients aged 18-65 years who were in work. Hand injury severity and functional status were assessed. Direct costs, including medical care expenses, and indirect costs, including lost productivity, were calculated. Seventy-nine patients of a mean age of 32 years were included. The mean direct cost for each patient was $1772 (47$1891 (53% of total cost). Injury severity, time to return to work, and hospitalization time were the main parameters of increased total cost in a linear regression analysis. © The Author(s) 2012

Roles of inventory and reserve capacity in mitigating supply chain disruption risk

This research focuses on managing disruption risk in supply chains using inventory and reserve capacity under stochastic demand. While inventory can be considered as a speculative risk mitigation lever, reserve capacity can be used in a reactive fashion when a disruption occurs. We determine optimal inventory levels and reserve capacity production rates for a firm that is exposed to supply chain disruption risk. We fully characterize four main risk mitigation strategies: inventory strategy, reserve capacity strategy, mixed strategy and passive acceptance. We illustrate how the optimal risk mitigation strategy depends on product characteristics (functional versus innovative) and supply chain characteristics (agile versus efficient). This work is inspired from a risk management problem of a leading pharmaceutical company

Observing and modelling the young solar analogue EK Draconis: starspot distribution, elemental abundances, and evolutionary status

Observations and modelling of stars with near-solar masses in their early phases of evolution is critical for a better understanding of how dynamos of solar-type stars evolve. We examine the chemical composition and the spot distribution of the pre-main-sequence solar analogue EK Dra. Using spectra from the HERMES Spectrograph (La Palma), we obtain the abundances of 23 elements with respect to the solar ones, which lead to a $[{\rm Fe/H}]=0.03$, with significant overabundance of Li and Ba. The s-process elements Sr, Y, and Ce are marginally overabundant, while Co, Ni, Cu, Zn are marginally deficient compared to solar abundances. The overabundance of Ba is most likely due to the assumption of depth-independent microturbulent velocity. Li abundance is consistent with the age and the other abundances may indicate distinct initial conditions of the pre-stellar nebula. We estimate a mass of 1.04 $M_\odot$ and an age of $27^{+11}_{-8}$\,Myr using various spectroscopic and photometric indicators. We study the surface distribution of dark spots, using 17 spectra collected during 15 nights using the CAFE Spectrograph (Calar Alto). We also conduct flux emergence and transport (FEAT) simulations for EK Dra's parameters and produce 15-day-averaged synoptic maps of the likely starspot distributions. Using Doppler imaging, we reconstruct the surface brightness distributions for the observed spectra and FEAT simulations, which show overall agreement for polar and mid-latitude spots, while in the simulations there is a lack of low-latitude spots compared to the observed image. We find indications that cross-equatorial extensions of mid-latitude spots can be artefacts of the less visible southern-hemisphere activity.Comment: 15 pages, 16 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS; corrections in Abstract and Introductio

Brand elevation in supply chains

In the last decades supply chain management has been explored from different perspectives fueling a myriad of research in the field. Although the literature on supply chain management (SCM) is vast, major gaps requiring scientific exploration still exist. Among these, interaction of branding and supply chain concepts clearly stands out. The aim of this paper is to investigate the power of brand in supply chains by taking literature devoted to supply chain management into consideration, relationship marketing and brand management. This paper explores the power of brand in terms of SCM and it defines the concept of “brand elevation in supply chain”. The objectives of this study are thus twofold: identifying “brand elevation in supply chain” concept and proposing a conceptual model associated to the power of brand in supply chains

Enhanced topical delivery of dexamethasone by β-cyclodextrin decorated thermoresponsive nanogels

Highly hydrophilic, responsive nanogels are attractive as potential systems for the topical delivery of bioactives encapsulated in their three-dimensional polymeric scaffold. Yet, these drug carrier systems suffer from drawbacks for efficient delivery of hydrophobic drugs. Addressing this, β-cyclodextrin (βCD) could be successfully introduced into the drug carrier systems by exploiting its unique affinity toward dexamethasone (DXM) as well as its role as topical penetration enhancer. The properties of βCD could be combined with those of thermoresponsive nanogels (tNGs) based on dendritic polyglycerol (dPG) as a crosslinker and linear thermoresponsive polyglycerol (tPG) inducing responsiveness to temperature changes. Electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) studies localized the drug within the hydrophobic cavity of βCD by differences in its mobility and environmental polarity. In fact, the fabricated carriers combining a particulate delivery system with a conventional penetration enhancer, resulted in an efficient delivery of DXM to the epidermis and the dermis of human skin ex vivo (enhancement compared to commercial DXM cream: ∼2.5 fold in epidermis, ∼30 fold in dermis). Furthermore, DXM encapsulated in βCD tNGs applied to skin equivalents downregulated the expression of proinflammatory thymic stromal lymphopoietin (TSLP) and outperformed a commercially available DXM cream

Surface flux evolution constraints for flux transport dynamos

The surface flux transport (SFT) model of solar magnetic fields involves empirically well-constrained velocity and magnetic fields. The basic evolution of the Sun's large-scale surface magnetic field is well described by this model. The azimuthally averaged evolution of the SFT model can be compared to the surface evolution of the flux transport dynamo (FTD), and the evolution of the SFT model can be used to constrain several near-surface properties of the FTD model. We compared the results of the FTD model with different upper boundary conditions and diffusivity profiles against the results of the SFT model. Among the ingredients of the FTD model, downward pumping of magnetic flux, related to a positive diffusivity gradient, has a significant effect in slowing down the diffusive radial transport of magnetic flux through the solar surface. Provided the pumping was strong enough to give rise to a downflow of a magnetic Reynolds number of 5 in the near-surface boundary layer, the FTD using a vertical boundary condition matches the SFT model based on the average velocities above the boundary layer. The FTD model with a potential field were unable to match the SFT results.Comment: Accepted for A&

Gas and seismicity within the Istanbul seismic gap

Understanding micro-seismicity is a critical question for earthquake hazard assessment. Since the devastating earthquakes of Izmit and Duzce in 1999, the seismicity along the submerged section of North Anatolian Fault within the Sea of Marmara (comprising the “Istanbul seismic gap”) has been extensively studied in order to infer its mechanical behaviour (creeping vs locked). So far, the seismicity has been interpreted only in terms of being tectonic-driven, although the Main Marmara Fault (MMF) is known to strike across multiple hydrocarbon gas sources. Here, we show that a large number of the aftershocks that followed the M 5.1 earthquake of July, 25th 2011 in the western Sea of Marmara, occurred within a zone of gas overpressuring in the 1.5–5 km depth range, from where pressurized gas is expected to migrate along the MMF, up to the surface sediment layers. Hence, gas-related processes should also be considered for a complete interpretation of the micro-seismicity (~M < 3) within the Istanbul offshore domain