Canary in the Forest?—Tree mortality and canopy dieback of western redcedar linked to drier and warmer summers

Aim: Forest dieback is increasing from unfavourable climate conditions. Western redcedar (WRC)—a culturally, ecologically and economically important species—has recently experienced anomalously high mortality rates and partial canopy dieback. We investigated how WRC tree growth and dieback responded to climate variability and drought using tree-ring methods. Location: Pacific Northwest, USA. Taxon: Western redcedar (Thuja plicata). Methods: We collected tree cores from three tree health status groups (no canopy dieback, partial canopy dieback, and dead trees) at 11 sites in coastal (maritime climate) and interior (continental climate) WRC populations. From growth rates, we computed four growth indices that assessed the resilience to drought and estimated the year of death. Results: Warmer and drier climate conditions in May/June that extended the annual July-to- September dry season reduced radial growth in 9 of 11 sites (1975–2020). WRC trees recovered growth to pre-drought rates within 3 years when post-drought climate conditions were cooler/wetter than average. However, recovery from drought was slower or absent when warmer/drier conditions occurred during the post-drought recovery period, possibly leading to the recent and widespread mortality across the coastal population. WRC mortality was portended by 4–5 years of declining growth. Annually-resolved mortality in coastal populations predominately occurred in 2017–2018 (80% of sampled dead trees), a period that coincided with exceedingly hot temperatures and the longest regionally dry period from May to September (1970–2020). In interior populations, mortality was dispersed among years but associated with warmer and drier conditions from August to September. Main conclusions: Our findings forewarn that a warming climate and more frequent and severe summer droughts, especially in consecutive years, will likely increase the vulnerability of WRC to canopy dieback and mortality and possibly other drought-sensitive trees in one of the world\u27s largest forest carbon sinks

Reduced fire severity offers near-term buffer to climate-driven declines in conifer resilience across the western United States

Increasing fire severity and warmer, drier postfire conditions are making forests in the western United States (West) vulnerable to ecological transformation. Yet, the relative importance of and interactions between these drivers of forest change remain unresolved, particularly over upcoming decades. Here, we assess how the interactive impacts of changing climate and wildfire activity influenced conifer regeneration after 334 wildfires, using a dataset of postfire conifer regeneration from 10,230 field plots. Our findings highlight declining regeneration capacity across the West over the past four decades for the eight dominant conifer species studied. Postfire regeneration is sensitive to high-severity fire, which limits seed availability, and postfire climate, which influences seedling establishment. In the near-term, projected differences in recruitment probability between low- and high-severity fire scenarios were larger than projected climate change impacts for most species, suggesting that reductions in fire severity, and resultant impacts on seed availability, could partially offset expected climate-driven declines in postfire regeneration. Across 40 to 42% of the study area, we project postfire conifer regeneration to be likely following low-severity but not high-severity fire under future climate scenarios (2031 to 2050). However, increasingly warm, dry climate conditions are projected to eventually outweigh the influence of fire severity and seed availability. The percent of the study area considered unlikely to experience conifer regeneration, regardless of fire severity, increased from 5% in 1981 to 2000 to 26 to 31% by mid-century, highlighting a limited time window over which management actions that reduce fire severity may effectively support postfire conifer regeneration. © 2023 the Author(s)

Reduced fire severity offers near-term buffer to climate-driven declines in conifer resilience across the western United States

Increasing fire severity and warmer, drier postfire conditions are making forests in the western United States (West) vulnerable to ecological transformation. Yet, the relative importance of and interactions between these drivers of forest change remain unresolved, particularly over upcoming decades. Here, we assess how the interactive impacts of changing climate and wildfire activity influenced conifer regeneration after 334 wildfires, using a dataset of postfire conifer regeneration from 10,230 field plots. Our findings highlight declining regeneration capacity across the West over the past four decades for the eight dominant conifer species studied. Postfire regeneration is sensitive to high-severity fire, which limits seed availability, and postfire climate, which influences seedling establishment. In the near-term, projected differences in recruitment probability between low- and high-severity fire scenarios were larger than projected climate change impacts for most species, suggesting that reductions in fire severity, and resultant impacts on seed availability, could partially offset expected climate-driven declines in postfire regeneration. Across 40 to 42% of the study area, we project postfire conifer regeneration to be likely following low-severity but not high-severity fire under future climate scenarios (2031 to 2050). However, increasingly warm, dry climate conditions are projected to eventually outweigh the influence of fire severity and seed availability. The percent of the study area considered unlikely to experience conifer regeneration, regardless of fire severity, increased from 5% in 1981 to 2000 to 26 to 31% by mid-century, highlighting a limited time window over which management actions that reduce fire severity may effectively support postfire conifer regeneration