Introducing the locally stationary dual-tree complex wavelet model

This paper reconciles Kingsbury's dual-tree complex wavelets with Nason and Eckley's locally stationary model. We here establish that the dual-tree wavelets admit an invertible de-biasing matrix and that this matrix can be used to invert the covariance relation. We also show that the added directional selectivity of the proposed model adds utility to the standard two-dimensional local stationary model. Non-stationarity detection on random fields is used as a motivating example. Experiments confirm that the dual-tree model can distinguish anisotropic non-stationarities significantly better than the current model

Regularized Estimation of Piecewise Constant Gaussian Graphical Models:The Group-Fused Graphical Lasso

The time-evolving precision matrix of a piecewise-constant Gaussian graphical model encodes the dynamic conditional dependency structure of a multivariate time-series. Traditionally, graphical models are estimated under the assumption that data are drawn identically from a generating distribution. Introducing sparsity and sparse-difference inducing priors, we relax these assumptions and propose a novel regularized M-estimator to jointly estimate both the graph and changepoint structure. The resulting estimator possesses the ability to therefore favor sparse dependency structures and/or smoothly evolving graph structures, as required. Moreover, our approach extends current methods to allow estimation of changepoints that are grouped across multiple dependencies in a system. An efficient algorithm for estimating structure is proposed. We study the empirical recovery properties in a synthetic setting. The qualitative effect of grouped changepoint estimation is then demonstrated by applying the method on a genetic time-course dataset. Supplementary material for this article is available online

Regularised estimation of 2D-locally stationary wavelet processes

Locally Stationary Wavelet processes provide a flexible way of describing the time/space evolution of autocovariance structure over an ordered field such as an image/time-series. Classically, estimation of such models assume continuous smoothness of the underlying spectra and are estimated via local kernel smoothers. We propose a new model which permits spectral jumps, and suggest a regularised estimator and algorithm which can recover such structure from images. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in a synthetic experiment where it shows desirable estimation properties. We conclude with an application to real images which illustrate the qualitative difference between the proposed and previous methods

The Time-Varying Dependency Patterns of NetFlow Statistics

We investigate where and how key dependency structure between measures of network activity change throughout the course of daily activity. Our approach to data-mining is probabilistic in nature, we formulate the identification of dependency patterns as a regularised statistical estimation problem. The resulting model can be interpreted as a set of time-varying graphs and provides a useful visual interpretation of network activity. We believe this is the first application of dynamic graphical modelling to network traffic of this kind. Investigations are performed on 9 days of real-world network traffic across a subset of IP's. We demonstrate that dependency between features may change across time and discuss how these change at an intra and inter-day level. Such variation in feature dependency may have important consequences for the design and implementation of probabilistic intrusion detection systems

Environmental influence on phytoplankton communities in the northern Benguela ecosystem

An investigation of surface phytoplankton communities was undertaken on the shelf of the northern Benguela upwelling ecosystem during austral autumn (May) and spring (September), along latitudinal transects at 20° S and 23° S, from 2 to 70 nautical miles offshore, as well as on a zigzag grid located between these transects. Microscopic identification of the phytoplankton and CHEMTAX analysis of pigment biomarkers were used to characterise the community composition. During May 2014, warmer, more-saline water with a shallower upper mixed layer corresponding to periods of less-intense offshore Ekman transport was encountered on the shelf. Satellite imagery indicated high phytoplankton biomass extending for a considerable distance from the coast, and CHEMTAX indicated diatoms as dominant at most of the stations (52–92%), although dinoflagellates were dominant at some inshore localities (57–74%). Species of Chaetoceros, Bacteriastrum and Cylindrotheca were the most abundant, with abundance of the Pseudo-nitzschia ‘seriata-group’ being particularly high at a number of stations. In September 2014, more-intense wind-forcing resulted in a deeper upper mixed layer and stronger upwelling of colder, less-saline water. Elevated phytoplankton biomass was confined close to the coast, where diatoms accounted for most of the population (54–87%), whereas small flagellates, such as prasinophytes, haptophytes and cryptophytes, as well as the cyanobacterium Synechococcus, dominated the communities (58–90%) farther from the coast. It is hypothesised that stronger upwelling and deeper vertical mixing in September of that year were not conducive for widespread diatom growth, and that small flagellates populated the water column by being entrained from offshore onto the shelf in the upwelled water that moved in towards the coast

Cross sectional study of performance indicators for English Primary Care Trusts: testing construct validity and identifying explanatory variables

BACKGROUND: The performance of Primary Care Trusts in England is assessed and published using a number of different performance indicators. Our study has two broad purposes. Firstly, to find out whether pairs of indicators that purport to measure similar aspects of quality are correlated (as would be expected if they are both valid measures of the same construct). Secondly, we wanted to find out whether broad (global) indicators correlated with any particular features of Primary Care Trusts, such as expenditure per capita. METHODS: Cross sectional quantitative analysis using data from six 2004/05 PCT performance indicators for 303 English Primary Care Trusts from four sources in the public domain: Star Rating, aggregated Quality and Outcomes Framework scores, Dr Foster mortality index, Dr Foster equity index (heart by-pass and hip replacements), NHS Litigation Authority Risk Management standards and Patient Satisfaction scores from the Star Ratings. Forward stepwise multiple regression analysis to determine the effect of Primary Care Trust characteristics on performance. RESULTS: Star Rating and Quality and Outcomes Framework total, both summary measures of global quality, were not correlated with each other (F = 0.66, p = 0.57). There were however positive correlations between Quality and Outcomes Framework total and patient satisfaction (r = 0.61, p < 0.001) and between screening/'additional services' indicators on the Star Ratings and Quality and Outcomes Framework (F = 24, p < 0.001). There was no correlation between different measures of access to services. Likewise we found no relationship between either Star Rating or Litigation Authority Standards and hospital mortality (F = 0.61, p = 0.61; F = 0.31, p = 0.73). CONCLUSION: Performance assessment in healthcare remains on the Government's agenda, with new core and developmental standards set to replace the Star Ratings in 2006. Yet the results of this analysis provide little evidence that the current indicators have sufficient construct validity to measure the underlying concept of quality, except when the specific area of screening is considered

Long-Time Tails and Anomalous Slowing Down in the Relaxation of Spatially Inhomogeneous Excitations in Quantum Spin Chains

Exact analytic calculations in spin-1/2 XY chains, show the presence of long-time tails in the asymptotic dynamics of spatially inhomogeneous excitations. The decay of inhomogeneities, for $t\to \infty$, is given in the form of a power law $$(t/\tau_{Q}) ^{-\nu_{Q}}$$ where the relaxation time $\tau_{Q}$ and the exponent $\nu_{Q}$ depend on the wave vector $Q$, characterizing the spatial modulation of the initial excitation. We consider several variants of the XY model (dimerized, with staggered magnetic field, with bond alternation, and with isotropic and uniform interactions), that are grouped into two families, whether the energy spectrum has a gap or not. Once the initial condition is given, the non-equilibrium problem for the magnetization is solved in closed form, without any other assumption. The long-time behavior for $t\to \infty$ can be obtained systematically in a form of an asymptotic series through the stationary phase method. We found that gapped models show critical behavior with respect to $Q$, in the sense that there exist critical values $Q_{c}$, where the relaxation time $\tau_{Q}$ diverges and the exponent $\nu_{Q}$ changes discontinuously. At those points, a slowing down of the relaxation process is induced, similarly to phenomena occurring near phase transitions. Long-lived excitations are identified as incommensurate spin density waves that emerge in systems undergoing the Peierls transition. In contrast, gapless models do not present the above anomalies as a function of the wave vector $Q$.Comment: 25 pages, 2 postscript figures. Manuscript submitted to Physical Review

Assessing the performance of maternity care in Europe: A critical exploration of tools and indicators

Background: This paper critically reviews published tools and indicators currently used to measure maternity care performance within Europe, focusing particularly on whether and how current approaches enable systematic appraisal of processes of minimal (or non-) intervention in support of physiological or "normal birth". The work formed part of COST Actions IS0907: "Childbirth Cultures, Concerns, and Consequences: Creating a dynamic EU framework for optimal maternity care" (2011-2014) and IS1405: Building Intrapartum Research Through Health - an interdisciplinary whole system approach to understanding and contextualising physiological labour and birth (BIRTH) (2014-). The Actions included the sharing of country experiences with the aim of promoting salutogenic approaches to maternity care. Methods: A structured literature search was conducted of material published between 2005 and 2013, incorporating research databases, published documents in english in peer-reviewed international journals and indicator databases which measured aspects of health care at a national and pan-national level. Given its emergence from two COST Actions the work, inevitably, focused on Europe, but findings may be relevant to other countries and regions. Results: A total of 388 indicators were identified, as well as seven tools specifically designed for capturing aspects of maternity care. Intrapartum care was the most frequently measured feature, through the application of process and outcome indicators. Postnatal and neonatal care of mother and baby were the least appraised areas. An over-riding focus on the quantification of technical intervention and adverse or undesirable outcomes was identified. Vaginal birth (no instruments) was occasionally cited as an indicator; besides this measurement few of the 388 indicators were found to be assessing non-intervention or "good" or positive outcomes more generally. Conclusions: The tools and indicators identified largely enable measurement of technical interventions and undesirable health (or pathological medical) outcomes. A physiological birth generally necessitates few, or no, interventions, yet most of the indicators presently applied fail to capture (a) this phenomenon, and (b) the relationship between different forms and processes of care, mode of birth and good or positive outcomes. A need was identified for indicators which capture non-intervention, reflecting the reality that most births are low-risk, requiring few, if any, technical medical procedures

Assessment of examiner leniency and stringency ('hawk-dove effect') in the MRCP(UK) clinical examination (PACES) using multi-facet Rasch modelling

BACKGROUND: A potential problem of clinical examinations is known as the hawk-dove problem, some examiners being more stringent and requiring a higher performance than other examiners who are more lenient. Although the problem has been known qualitatively for at least a century, we know of no previous statistical estimation of the size of the effect in a large-scale, high-stakes examination. Here we use FACETS to carry out a multi-facet Rasch modelling of the paired judgements made by examiners in the clinical examination (PACES) of MRCP(UK), where identical candidates were assessed in identical situations, allowing calculation of examiner stringency. METHODS: Data were analysed from the first nine diets of PACES, which were taken between June 2001 and March 2004 by 10,145 candidates. Each candidate was assessed by two examiners on each of seven separate tasks. with the candidates assessed by a total of 1,259 examiners, resulting in a total of 142,030 marks. Examiner demographics were described in terms of age, sex, ethnicity, and total number of candidates examined. RESULTS: FACETS suggested that about 87% of main effect variance was due to candidate differences, 1% due to station differences, and 12% due to differences between examiners in leniency-stringency. Multiple regression suggested that greater examiner stringency was associated with greater examiner experience and being from an ethnic minority. Male and female examiners showed no overall difference in stringency. Examination scores were adjusted for examiner stringency and it was shown that for the present pass mark, the outcome for 95.9% of candidates would be unchanged using adjusted marks, whereas 2.6% of candidates would have passed, even though they had failed on the basis of raw marks, and 1.5% of candidates would have failed, despite passing on the basis of raw marks. CONCLUSION: Examiners do differ in their leniency or stringency, and the effect can be estimated using Rasch modelling. The reasons for differences are not clear, but there are some demographic correlates, and the effects appear to be reliable across time. Account can be taken of differences, either by adjusting marks or, perhaps more effectively and more justifiably, by pairing high and low stringency examiners, so that raw marks can be used in the determination of pass and fail