Numerical simulation and decomposition of kinetic energy in the Central Mediterranean: insight on mesoscale circulation and energy conversion

The spatial and temporal variability of eddy and mean kinetic energy of the Central Mediterranean region has been investigated, from January 2008 to December 2010, by mean of a numerical simulation mainly to quantify the mesoscale dynamics and their relationships with physical forcing. In order to understand the energy redistribution processes, the baroclinic energy conversion has been analysed, suggesting hypotheses about the drivers of the mesoscale activity in this area. The ocean model used is based on the Princeton Ocean Model implemented at 1/32° horizontal resolution. Surface momentum and buoyancy fluxes are interactively computed by mean of standard bulk formulae using predicted model Sea Surface Temperature and atmospheric variables provided by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast operational analyses. At its lateral boundaries the model is one-way nested within the Mediterranean Forecasting System operational products. <br><br> The model domain has been subdivided in four sub-regions: Sardinia channel and southern Tyrrhenian Sea, Sicily channel, eastern Tunisian shelf and Libyan Sea. Temporal evolution of eddy and mean kinetic energy has been analysed, on each of the four sub-regions, showing different behaviours. On annual scales and within the first 5 m depth, the eddy kinetic energy represents approximately the 60 % of the total kinetic energy over the whole domain, confirming the strong mesoscale nature of the surface current flows in this area. The analyses show that the model well reproduces the path and the temporal behaviour of the main known sub-basin circulation features. New mesoscale structures have been also identified, from numerical results and direct observations, for the first time as the Pantelleria Vortex and the Medina Gyre. <br><br> The classical kinetic energy decomposition (eddy and mean) allowed to depict and to quantify the permanent and fluctuating parts of the circulation in the region, and to differentiate the four sub-regions as function of relative and absolute strength of the mesoscale activity. Furthermore the Baroclinic Energy Conversion term shows that in the Sardinia Channel the mesoscale activity, due to baroclinic instabilities, is significantly larger than in the other sub-regions, while a negative sign of the energy conversion, meaning a transfer of energy from the Eddy Kinetic Energy to the Eddy Available Potential Energy, has been recorded only for the surface layers of the Sicily Channel during summer

Observations of a phytoplankton spring bloom onset triggered by a density front in NW Mediterranean

Phytoplankton blooms in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea are seasonal events that mainly occur in a specific area comprising the Gulf of Lion and the Provençal basin, where they are promoted by a general cyclonic circulation, strong wind-driven mixing and subsequent re-stratification of the water column. At the southern boundary of this area, a persistent density front known as the north Balearic front can be found. The front is presumed to cause an early phytoplankton bloom in its vicinity because (a) it enhances the transport of nutrients into the euphotic layer and (b) it promotes the speedy re-stratification of the water column (through frontal instabilities). In February and March 2013, a glider, equipped with a CTD (conductivity, temperature, and depth device) and a fluorometer, was deployed on a mission that took it from the Balearic Islands to Sardinia and back. The frontal zone was crossed twice, once during the outbound leg and the once on the return leg. The data provided by the glider clearly showed the onset of a bloom soon after a decrease in wind-driven turbulent convection and mixing. The in situ observations were supported and confirmed by satellite imagery. It is shown that frontal dynamics play a key role in the promotion and acceleration of re-stratification, which is a necessary pre-conditioning factor for the onset of blooms much like other relevant processes such as an enhanced biological pump. Swift re-stratification stimulates new production by inhibiting mixing. Finally, viewing the blooming phenomenon from a regional perspective, it seems that Sverdrup's critical depth model applies in the northern well-mixed area whereas, in the south, front-related re-stratification seems to be the principal cause

density front in NW Mediterranean

www.ocean-sci.net/10/657/2014/ doi:10.5194/os-10-657-201

How do we estimate survival? External validation of a tool for survival estimation in patients with metastatic bone disease-decision analysis and comparison of three international patient populations.

Abstract BACKGROUND: We recently developed a clinical decision support tool, capable of estimating the likelihood of survival at 3 and 12 months following surgery for patients with operable skeletal metastases. After making it publicly available on www.PATHFx.org , we attempted to externally validate it using independent, international data. METHODS: We collected data from patients treated at 13 Italian orthopaedic oncology referral centers between 2010 and 2013, then applied to PATHFx, which generated a probability of survival at three and 12-months for each patient. We assessed accuracy using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), clinical utility using Decision Curve Analysis (DCA), and compared the Italian patient data to the training set (United States) and first external validation set (Scandinavia). RESULTS: The Italian dataset contained 287 records with at least 12 months follow-up information. The AUCs for the three-month and 12-month estimates was 0.80 and 0.77, respectively. There were missing data, including the surgeon's estimate of survival that was missing in the majority of records. Physiologically, Italian patients were similar to patients in the training and first validation sets. However notable differences were observed in the proportion of those surviving three and 12-months, suggesting differences in referral patterns and perhaps indications for surgery. CONCLUSIONS: PATHFx was successfully validated in an Italian dataset containing missing data. This study demonstrates its broad applicability to European patients, even in centers with differing treatment philosophies from those previously studied

A multi-model assessment of the impact of currents, waves and wind in modelling surface drifters and oil spill

Validation of oil spill forecasting systems suffers from a lack of data due to the scarcity of oil slick in situ and satellite observations. Drifters (surface drifting buoys) are often considered as proxy for oil spill to overcome this problem. However, they can have different designs and consequently behave in a different way at sea, making it not straightforward to use them for oil spill model validation purposes and to account for surface currents, waves and wind when modelling them. Stemming from the need to validate the MEDESS4MS (Mediterranean Decision Support System for Marine Safety) multi-model oil spill prediction system, which allows access to several ocean, wave and meteorological operational model forecasts, an exercise at sea was carried out to collect a consistent dataset of oil slick satellite observations, in situ data and trajectories of different type of drifters. The exercise, called MEDESS4MS Serious Game 1 (SG1), took place in the Elba Island region (Western Mediterranean Sea) during May 2014. Satellite images covering the MEDESS4MS SG1 exercise area were acquired every day and, in the case an oil spill was observed from satellite, vessels of the Italian Coast Guard (ITCG) were sent in situ to confirm the presence of the pollution. During the exercise one oil slick was found in situ and drifters, with different water-following characteristics, were effectively deployed into the oil slick and then monitored in the following days. Although it was not possible to compare the oil slick and drifter trajectories due to a lack of satellite observations of the same oil slick in the following days, the oil slick observations in situ and drifters trajectories were used to evaluate the quality of MEDESS4MS multi-model currents, waves and winds by using the MEDSLIK-II oil spill model. The response of the drifters to surface ocean currents, different Stokes drift parameterizations and wind drag has been examined. We found that the surface ocean currents mainly drive the transport of completely submerged drifters. The accuracy of the simulations increases with higher resolution currents and with addition of the Stokes drift, which is better estimated when provided by wave models. The wind drag improves the modelling of drifter trajectories only in the case of partially emerged drifters, otherwise it leads to an incorrect reproduction of the drifters׳ direction, which is particularly evident in high speed wind conditions

A relocatable ocean model in support of environmental emergencies

During the Costa Concordia emergency case, regional, subregional, and relocatable ocean models have been used together with the oil spill model, MEDSLIK-II, to provide ocean currents forecasts, possible oil spill scenarios, and drifters trajectories simulations. The models results together with the evaluation of their performances are presented in this paper. In particular, we focused this work on the implementation of the Interactive Relocatable Nested Ocean Model (IRENOM), based on the Harvard Ocean Prediction System (HOPS), for the Costa Concordia emergency and on its validation using drifters released in the area of the accident. It is shown that thanks to the capability of improving easily and quickly its configuration, the IRENOM results are of greater accuracy than the results achieved using regional or subregional model products. The model topography, and to the initialization procedures, and the horizontal resolution are the key model settings to be configured. Furthermore, the IRENOM currents and the MEDSLIK-II simulated trajectories showed to be sensitive to the spatial resolution of the meteorological fields used, providing higher prediction skills with higher resolution wind forcing.MEDESS4MS Project; TESSA Project; MyOcean2 Projectinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Cleavage of the urokinase receptor (uPAR) on oral cancer cells : regulation by transforming growth factor - beta 1 (TGF-beta 1) and potential effects on migration and invasion

Background: Urokinase plasminogen activator (uPA) receptor (uPAR) is up-regulated at the invasive tumour front of human oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC), indicating a role for uPAR in tumour progression. We previously observed elevated expression of uPAR at the tumour-stroma interface in a mouse model for OSCC, which was associated with increased proteolytic activity. The tumour microenvironment regulated uPAR expression, as well as its glycosylation and cleavage. Both full-length- and cleaved uPAR (uPAR (II-III)) are involved in highly regulated processes such as cell signalling, proliferation, migration, stem cell mobilization and invasion. The aim of the current study was to analyse tumour associated factors and their effect on uPAR cleavage, and the potential implications for cell proliferation, migration and invasion. Methods: Mouse uPAR was stably overexpressed in the mouse OSCC cell line AT84. The ratio of full-length versus cleaved uPAR as analysed by Western blotting and its regulation was assessed by addition of different protease inhibitors and transforming growth factor - beta 1 (TGF-beta 1). The role of uPAR cleavage in cell proliferation and migration was analysed using real- time cell analysis and invasion was assessed using the myoma invasion model. Results: We found that when uPAR was overexpressed a proportion of the receptor was cleaved, thus the cells presented both full-length uPAR and uPAR (II-III). Cleavage was mainly performed by serine proteases and urokinase plasminogen activator (uPA) in particular. When the OSCC cells were stimulated with TGF-beta 1, the production of the uPA inhibitor PAI-1 was increased, resulting in a reduction of uPAR cleavage. By inhibiting cleavage of uPAR, cell migration was reduced, and by inhibiting uPA activity, invasion was reduced. We could also show that medium containing soluble uPAR (suPAR), and cleaved soluble uPAR (suPAR (II-III)), induced migration in OSCC cells with low endogenous levels of uPAR. Conclusions: These results show that soluble factors in the tumour microenvironment, such as TGF-beta 1, PAI-1 and uPA, can influence the ratio of full length and uPAR (II-III) and thereby potentially effect cell migration and invasion. Resolving how uPAR cleavage is controlled is therefore vital for understanding how OSCC progresses and potentially provides new targets for therapy.Peer reviewe

YY1 overexpression is associated with poor prognosis and metastasis-free survival in patients suffering osteosarcoma

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The polycomb transcription factor Yin Yang 1 (YY1) overexpression can be causally implicated in experimental tumor growth and metastasization. To date, there is no clinical evidence of YY1 involvement in outcome of patients with osteosarcoma. Prognosis of osteosarcoma is still severe and only few patients survive beyond five years. We performed a prospective immunohistochemistry analysis to correlate YY1 immunostaining with metastatic development and survival in a selected homogeneous group of patients with osteosarcoma.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We studied 41 patients suffering from osteosarcoma (stage II-IVa). Multivariate analysis was performed using Cox proportional hazard regression to evaluate the correlation between YY1 expression and both metastasis development and mortality.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>YY1 protein is not usually present in normal bone; in contrast, a high number of patients (61%) showed a high score of YY1 positive cells (51-100%) and 39% had a low score (10-50% positive cells). No statistical difference was found in histology, anatomic sites, or response to chemotherapy between the two degrees of YY1 expression. Cox regression analysis demonstrated that the highest score of YY1 expression was predictive of both low metastasis-free survival (HR = 4.690, 95%CI = 1.079-20.396; p = 0.039) and poor overall survival (HR = 8.353, 95%CI = 1.863-37.451 p = 0.006) regardless of the effects of covariates such as age, gender, histology and chemonecrosis.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Overexpression of YY1 in primary site of osteosarcoma is associated with the occurrence of metastasis and poor clinical outcome.</p