Improving the description of the suspended particulate matter concentrations in the southern North Sea through assimilating remotely sensed data

The integration of remote sensing data of suspended particulate matter (SPM) into numerical models is useful to improve the understanding of the temporal and spatial behaviour of SPM in dynamic shelf seas. In this paper a generic method based on the Ensemble Kalman Filtering (EnKF) for assimilating remote sensing SPM data into a transport model is presented. The EnKF technique is used to assimilate SPM data of the North Sea retrieved from the MERIS sensor, into the computational water quality and sediment transport model, Delft3D-WAQ. The satellite data were processed with the HYDROPT algorithm that provides SPM concentrations and error information per pixel, which enables their use in data assimilation. The uncertainty of the transport model, expressed in the system noise covariance matrix, was quantified by means of a Monte Carlo approach. From a case study covering the first half of 2003, it is demonstrated that the MERIS observations and transport model application are sufficiently robust for a successful generic assimilation. The assimilation results provide a consistent description of the spatial-temporal variability of SPM in the southern North Sea and show a clear decrease of the model bias with respect to independent in-situ observations. This study also identifies some shortcomings in the assimilated results, such as over prediction of surface SPM concentrations in regions experiencing periods of rapid stratification/de-stratification. Overall this feasibility study leads to a range of suggestions for improving and enhancing the model, the observations and the assimilation scheme. © 2011 Korea Ocean Research & Development Institute (KORDI) and the Korean Society of Oceanography (KSO) and Springer Netherlands

Integration of satellite remote sensing data in ecosystem modelling at local scales: Practices and trends

1. Spatiotemporal ecological modelling of terrestrial ecosystems relies on climatological and biophysical Earth observations. Due to their increasing availability, global coverage, frequent acquisition and high spatial resolution, satellite remote sensing (SRS) products are frequently integrated to in situ data in the development of ecosystem models (EMs) quantifying the interaction among the vegetation component and the hydrological, energy and nutrient cycles. This review highlights the main advances achieved in the last decade in combining SRS data with EMs, with particular attention to the challenges modellers face for applications at local scales (e.g. small watersheds). 2. We critically review the literature on progress made towards integration of SRS data into terrestrial EMs: (1) as input to define model drivers; (2) as reference to validate model results; and (3) as a tool to sequentially update the state variables, and to quantify and reduce model uncertainty. 3. The number of applications provided in the literature shows that EMs may profit greatly from the inclusion of spatial parameters and forcings provided by vegetation and climatic‐related SRS products. Limiting factors for the application of such models to local scales are: (1) mismatch between the resolution of SRS products and model grid; (2) unavailability of specific products in free and public online repositories; (3) temporal gaps in SRS data; and (4) quantification of model and measurement uncertainties. This review provides examples of possible solutions adopted in recent literature, with particular reference to the spatiotemporal scales of analysis and data accuracy. We propose that analysis methods such as stochastic downscaling techniques and multi‐sensor/multi‐platform fusion approaches are necessary to improve the quality of SRS data for local applications. Moreover, we suggest coupling models with data assimilation techniques to improve their forecast abilities. 4. This review encourages the use of SRS data in EMs for local applications, and underlines the necessity for a closer collaboration among EM developers and remote sensing scientists. With more upcoming satellite missions, especially the Sentinel platforms, concerted efforts to further integrate SRS into modelling are in great demand and these types of applications will certainly proliferate

Chemical and Microbiological Contamination in Limpet (Patella spp.) of the Portuguese Coast

Coastal production areas can be impacted by anthropogenic contamination from urban, agro-industrial and leisure activities. Some contaminants, such as chemical substances might also have a telluric origin. Non filter feeding univalve mollusks, such as limpets, which are collected in rocky shores either for sale or for auto-consumption, are very appreciated in Portugal, but have been excluded from provisions on the classification of production areas, although can present relevant contamination. Thus, the aim of this study was to assess the microbiological and toxic metal contaminations in limpets (Patella spp) of the Portuguese coast, taking into account the production area and seasonal variation, and comparing their contamination levels with those occurring in bivalve mollusk indicator species, mussel (Mytilus edulis). The risks associated to the consumption of limpet meals were also assessed. For that, microbial total and fecal levels and cadmium, lead and mercury contents in limpets and mussels samples from three coastal areas over several months were analyzed based on standard methodologies. Contents of mercury and lead in limpets from the three areas studied, were always below the limits of 0.50 mg kg-1 and 1.5 mg kg-1 allowed by the EU, respectively. Regarding cadmium, levels in limpet were always above the limit of 1.0 mg kg-1, reaching about 3.0 mg kg-1 in some samples. These values probably indicate contamination from telluric origin (soil or rocks) in the coastal studied areas. Results indicated that microbiological contamination of fecal origin was low and in general below the detection level. Contamination levels did not show a clear seasonal pattern. The two mollusk species, limpets and mussels, differed statistically in all contaminants analyzed, being cadmium the most of concern, and always higher in limpets than in mussel samples. Thus, the potential risk associated with limpet consumption, taking into account the cadmium tolerable weekly intake (TWI), was investigated, being possible to reach a reliable recommendation of less than a monthly meal of 160 g. As recreational picking of limpets is common in Portugal, official 4recommendations of maximum periodic human consumption should be published and enforcement increased in forbidden areasinfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersio

Natural capital accounting perspectives: a pragmatic way forward

Introduction: Recent debates surrounding the application of natural capital accounting (NCA) have produced several approaches to further develop this system, as well as highlighted a number of conceptual and methodological issues that need to be resolved before mainstreaming NCA into policy and decision making. We argue that prolonged debate over the value concepts (i.e., exchange versus other values) underpinning different modifications to NCA has slowed progress in experimentation and uptake by policymakers.Outcomes: Consequently we propose three broad approaches which can be progressed in parallel to reinvigorate experimentation with the NCA principles and practice, while at the same time generating policy relevant tools and evidence bases for decision support. The three approaches are; extended SNA accounting anchored to the use of exchange values; a complementary accounts network (CAN) that utilizes plural values as supplementary accounts to the SNA system; and wealth accounting that focuses on measures of welfare and wellbeing. The three approaches are complementary and data developed in any one can inform the other two.Conclusions: We contend that CAN offers the most flexibility and opportunities to progress short term support for decision making on environmental issues which are now becoming urgent

A phase II study of sequential neoadjuvant gemcitabine plus doxorubicin followed by gemcitabine plus cisplatin in patients with operable breast cancer: prediction of response using molecular profiling

This study examined the pathological complete response (pCR) rate and safety of sequential gemcitabine-based combinations in breast cancer. We also examined gene expression profiles from tumour biopsies to identify biomarkers predictive of response. Indian women with large or locally advanced breast cancer received 4 cycles of gemcitabine 1200 mg m−2 plus doxorubicin 60 mg m−2 (Gem+Dox), then 4 cycles of gemcitabine 1000 mg m−2 plus cisplatin 70 mg m−2 (Gem+Cis), and surgery. Three alternate dosing sequences were used during cycle 1 to examine dynamic changes in molecular profiles. Of 65 women treated, 13 (24.5% of 53 patients with surgery) had a pCR and 22 (33.8%) had a complete clinical response. Patients administered Gem d1, 8 and Dox d2 in cycle 1 (20 of 65) reported more toxicities, with G3/4 neutropenic infection/febrile neutropenia (7 of 20) as the most common cycle-1 event. Four drug-related deaths occurred. In 46 of 65 patients, 10-fold cross validated supervised analyses identified gene expression patterns that predicted with ⩾73% accuracy (1) clinical complete response after eight cycles, (2) overall clinical complete response, and (3) pCR. This regimen shows strong activity. Patients receiving Gem d1, 8 and Dox d2 experienced unacceptable toxicity, whereas patients on other sequences had manageable safety profiles. Gene expression patterns may predict benefit from gemcitabine-containing neoadjuvant therapy

Challenges for Sustained Observing and Forecasting Systems in the Mediterranean Sea

The Mediterranean community represented in this paper is the result of more than 30 years of EU and nationally funded coordination, which has led to key contributions in science concepts and operational initiatives. Together with the establishment of operational services, the community has coordinated with universities, research centers, research infrastructures and private companies to implement advanced multi-platform and integrated observing and forecasting systems that facilitate the advancement of operational services, scientific achievements and mission-oriented innovation. Thus, the community can respond to societal challenges and stakeholders needs, developing a variety of fit-for-purpose services such as the Copernicus Marine Service. The combination of state-of-the-art observations and forecasting provides new opportunities for downstream services in response to the needs of the heavily populated Mediterranean coastal areas and to climate change. The challenge over the next decade is to sustain ocean observations within the research community, to monitor the variability at small scales, e.g., the mesoscale/submesoscale, to resolve the sub-basin/seasonal and inter-annual variability in the circulation, and thus establish the decadal variability, understand and correct the model-associated biases and to enhance model-data integration and ensemble forecasting for uncertainty estimation. Better knowledge and understanding of the level of Mediterranean variability will enable a subsequent evaluation of the impacts and mitigation of the effect of human activities and climate change on the biodiversity and the ecosystem, which will support environmental assessments and decisions. Further challenges include extending the science-based added-value products into societal relevant downstream services and engaging with communities to build initiatives that will contribute to the 2030 Agenda and more specifically to SDG14 and the UN's Decade of Ocean Science for sustainable development, by this contributing to bridge the science-policy gap. The Mediterranean observing and forecasting capacity was built on the basis of community best practices in monitoring and modeling, and can serve as a basis for the development of an integrated global ocean observing system

Challenges for Sustained Observing and Forecasting Systems in the Mediterranean Sea

The Mediterranean community represented in this paper is the result of more than 30 years of EU and nationally funded coordination, which has led to key contributions in science concepts and operational initiatives. Together with the establishment of operational services, the community has coordinated with universities, research centers, research infrastructures and private companies to implement advanced multi-platform and integrated observing and forecasting systems that facilitate the advancement of operational services, scientific achievements and mission-oriented innovation. Thus, the community can respond to societal challenges and stakeholders needs, developing a variety of fit-for-purpose services such as the Copernicus Marine Service. The combination of state-of-the-art observations and forecasting provides new opportunities for downstream services in response to the needs of the heavily populated Mediterranean coastal areas and to climate change. The challenge over the next decade is to sustain ocean observations within the research community, to monitor the variability at small scales, e.g., the mesoscale/submesoscale, to resolve the sub-basin/seasonal and inter-annual variability in the circulation, and thus establish the decadal variability, understand and correct the model-associated biases and to enhance model-data integration and ensemble forecasting for uncertainty estimation. Better knowledge and understanding of the level of Mediterranean variability will enable a subsequent evaluation of the impacts and mitigation of the effect of human activities and climate change on the biodiversity and the ecosystem, which will support environmental assessments and decisions. Further challenges include extending the science-based added-value products into societal relevant downstream services and engaging with communities to build initiatives that will contribute to the 2030 Agenda and more specifically to SDG14 and the UN's Decade of Ocean Science for sustainable development, by this contributing to bridge the science-policy gap. The Mediterranean observing and forecasting capacity was built on the basis of community best practices in monitoring and modeling, and can serve as a basis for the development of an integrated global ocean observing system

Marine and coastal ecosystem services on the science–policy–practice nexus: challenges and opportunities from 11 European case studies

We compared and contrasted 11 European case studies to identify challenges and opportunitiestoward the operationalization of marine and coastal ecosystem service (MCES) assessments inEurope. This work is the output of a panel convened by the Marine Working Group of theEcosystemServices Partnership in September 2016. TheMCES assessments were used to (1) addressmultiple policy objectives simultaneously, (2) interpret EU-wide policies to smaller scales and (3)inform local decision-making. Most of the studies did inform decision makers, but only in a fewcases, the outputswere applied or informed decision-making. Significant limitations among the 11assessments were the absence of shared understanding of the ES concept, data and knowledgegaps, difficulties in accounting for marine social–ecological systems complexity and partial stakeholderinvolvement. The findings of the expert panel call for continuous involvement of MCES ‘endusers’, integrated knowledge onmarine social–ecological systems, defining thresholds to MCES useand raising awareness to the general public. Such improvements at the intersection of science,policy and practice are essential starting points toward building a stronger science foundationsupporting management of European marine ecosystems

Analysis and Evaluation of Ecosystem Resilience: An Economic Perspective

This paper focuses on the analyses and evaluation of resilience anchored in an economic perspective. Resilience, as well as most of the benefits provided by ecosystems, is not priced on current markets. However, this does not mean that resilience is of no value for humans. On the contrary, the interest of using an economic perspective, and the respective scientific methodology, will be put forward in terms of resilience relevance for ecosystems life and functioning, and its impact on human welfare. The economic perspective is anchored in an anthropocentric analysis meaning that resilience is evaluated in terms of provision of natural capital benefits. These, in turn, are interpreted as an insurance against the risk of ecosystem malfunctioning and the consequent interruption of the provision of goods and services to humans. For this analysis, we make use of a conceptual framework so as to identify and describe the different value components of resilience. Finally, we present an illustration that tackles the economic analysis and discussion of resilience benefits in the context of the Venice Lagoon