Discrete-response state space models with conditional heteroscedasticity: An application to forecasting the federal funds rate target

We propose a state space mixed model with stochastic volatility for ordinal-response time series data. For parameter estimation, we design an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. We illustrate our method with an empirical study on the federal funds rate target. The proposed model provides better forecasts than alternative specifications

Assessing the Health of Richibucto Estuary with the Latent Health Factor Index

The ability to quantitatively assess the health of an ecosystem is often of great interest to those tasked with monitoring and conserving ecosystems. For decades, research in this area has relied upon multimetric indices of various forms. Although indices may be numbers, many are constructed based on procedures that are highly qualitative in nature, thus limiting the quantitative rigour of the practical interpretations made from these indices. The statistical modelling approach to construct the latent health factor index (LHFI) was recently developed to express ecological data, collected to construct conventional multimetric health indices, in a rigorous quantitative model that integrates qualitative features of ecosystem health and preconceived ecological relationships among such features. This hierarchical modelling approach allows (a) statistical inference of health for observed sites and (b) prediction of health for unobserved sites, all accompanied by formal uncertainty statements. Thus far, the LHFI approach has been demonstrated and validated on freshwater ecosystems. The goal of this paper is to adapt this approach to modelling estuarine ecosystem health, particularly that of the previously unassessed system in Richibucto in New Brunswick, Canada. Field data correspond to biotic health metrics that constitute the AZTI marine biotic index (AMBI) and abiotic predictors preconceived to influence biota. We also briefly discuss related LHFI research involving additional metrics that form the infaunal trophic index (ITI). Our paper is the first to construct a scientifically sensible model to rigorously identify the collective explanatory capacity of salinity, distance downstream, channel depth, and silt-clay content --- all regarded a priori as qualitatively important abiotic drivers --- towards site health in the Richibucto ecosystem.Comment: On 2013-05-01, a revised version of this article was accepted for publication in PLoS One. See Journal reference and DOI belo

EXO 0748-676 Rules out Soft Equations of State for Neutron Star Matter

The interiors of neutron stars contain matter at very high densities, in a state that differs greatly from those found in the early universe or achieved at terrestrial experiments. Matter in these conditions can only be probed through astrophysical observations that measure the mass and radius of neutron stars with sufficient precision. Here I report for the first time a unique determination of the mass and radius of the neutron star EXO 0748-676, which appears to rule out all the soft equations of state of neutron star matter. If this object is typical, then condensates and unconfined quarks do not exist in the centers of neutron stars.Comment: To appear in Nature, press embargo until publicatio

Diagnostic performance of the Minimal Eating Observation and Nutrition Form - Version II (MEONF-II) and Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (NRS 2002) among hospital inpatients - a cross-sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The usefulness of the nutritional screening tool Minimal Eating Observation and Nutrition Form - Version II (MEONF-II) relative to Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (NRS 2002) remains untested. Here we attempted to fill this gap by testing the diagnostic performance and user-friendliness of the MEONF-II and the NRS 2002 in relation to the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) among hospital inpatients.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Eighty seven hospital inpatients were assessed for nutritional status with the 18-item MNA (considered as the gold standard), and screened with the NRS 2002 and the MEONF-II.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The MEONF-II sensitivity (0.61), specificity (0.79), and accuracy (0.68) were acceptable. The corresponding figures for NRS 2002 were 0.37, 0.82 and 0.55, respectively. MEONF-II and NRS 2002 took five minutes each to complete. Assessors considered MEONF-II instructions and items to be easy to understand and complete (96-99%), and the items to be relevant (87%). For NRS 2002, the corresponding figures were 75-93% and 79%, respectively.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The MEONF-II is an easy to use, relatively quick and sensitive screening tool to assess risk of undernutrition among hospital inpatients. With respect to user-friendliness and sensitivity the MEONF-II seems to perform better than the NRS 2002, although larger studies are needed for firm conclusions. The different scoring systems for undernutrition appear to identify overlapping but not identical patient groups. A potential limitation with the study is that the MNA was used as gold standard among patients younger than 65 years.</p

Holographic zero sound at finite temperature in the Sakai-Sugimoto model

In this paper, we study the fate of the holographic zero sound mode at finite temperature and non-zero baryon density in the deconfined phase of the Sakai-Sugimoto model of holographic QCD. We establish the existence of such a mode for a wide range of temperatures and investigate the dispersion relation, quasi-normal modes, and spectral functions of the collective excitations in four different regimes, namely, the collisionless quantum, collisionless thermal, and two distinct hydrodynamic regimes. For sufficiently high temperatures, the zero sound completely disappears, and the low energy physics is dominated by an emergent diffusive mode. We compare our findings to Landau-Fermi liquid theory and to other holographic models.Comment: 1+24 pages, 19 figures, PDFTeX, v2: some comments and references added, v3: some clarifications relating to the different regimes added, matches version accepted for publication in JHEP, v4: corrected typo in eq. (3.18

IMPLEmenting a clinical practice guideline for acute low back pain evidence-based manageMENT in general practice (IMPLEMENT) : cluster randomised controlled trial study protocol

Background: Evidence generated from reliable research is not frequently implemented into clinical practice. Evidence-based clinical practice guidelines are a potential vehicle to achieve this. A recent systematic review of implementation strategies of guideline dissemination concluded that there was a lack of evidence regarding effective strategies to promote the uptake of guidelines. Recommendations from this review, and other studies, have suggested the use of interventions that are theoretically based because these may be more effective than those that are not. An evidencebased clinical practice guideline for the management of acute low back pain was recently developed in Australia. This provides an opportunity to develop and test a theory-based implementation intervention for a condition which is common, has a high burden, and for which there is an evidence-practice gap in the primary care setting. Aim: This study aims to test the effectiveness of a theory-based intervention for implementing a clinical practice guideline for acute low back pain in general practice in Victoria, Australia. Specifically, our primary objectives are to establish if the intervention is effective in reducing the percentage of patients who are referred for a plain x-ray, and improving mean level of disability for patients three months post-consultation. Methods/Design: This study protocol describes the details of a cluster randomised controlled trial. Ninety-two general practices (clusters), which include at least one consenting general practitioner, will be randomised to an intervention or control arm using restricted randomisation. Patients aged 18 years or older who visit a participating practitioner for acute non-specific low back pain of less than three months duration will be eligible for inclusion. An average of twenty-five patients per general practice will be recruited, providing a total of 2,300 patient participants. General practitioners in the control arm will receive access to the guideline using the existing dissemination strategy. Practitioners in the intervention arm will be invited to participate in facilitated face-to-face workshops that have been underpinned by behavioural theory. Investigators (not involved in the delivery of the intervention), patients, outcome assessors and the study statistician will be blinded to group allocation. Trial registration: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN012606000098538 (date registered 14/03/2006).The trial is funded by the NHMRC by way of a Primary Health Care Project Grant (334060). JF has 50% of her time funded by the Chief Scientist Office3/2006). of the Scottish Government Health Directorate and 50% by the University of Aberdeen. PK is supported by a NHMRC Health Professional Fellowship (384366) and RB by a NHMRC Practitioner Fellowship (334010). JG holds a Canada Research Chair in Health Knowledge Transfer and Uptake. All other authors are funded by their own institutions

Hybrid off-river augmentation system as an alternative raw water resource: the hydrogeochemistry of abandoned mining ponds

The use of water from abandoned mining ponds under a hybrid off-river augmentation system (HORAS) has been initiated as an alternative water resource for raw water. However, it raises the questions over the safety of the use of such waters. In this study, the hydrogeochemical analysis of the waters is presented to assess the degree to which the water has been contaminated. Comparisons were made between sampling sites, i.e. abandoned mining ponds, active sand mining ponds and the receiving streams within Bestari Jaya, Selangor River basin. The aqueous geochemistry analysis showed different hydrochemical signatures of major elements between sites, indicating different sources of minerals in the water. Discharges from the sand mining ponds were found to contain elevated availability of dissolved concentrations of iron, manganese, lead, copper and zinc, among others. However, the quality of the water (from the main river) that is supplied for potable water consumption is at a satisfactory level despite being partly sourced from the abandoned mining ponds. In fact, all the metal concentrations detected were well below the Malaysia Ministry of Health guideline limits for untreated raw water. In addition, the results of the geochemical index analysis (i.e. geoaccumulation index, enrichment factor and modified contamination factor) showed that the rivers and abandoned mining ponds were generally unpolluted with respect to the metals found in sediments

Dietary phenethylisothiocyanate attenuates bowel inflammation in mice

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Phenethylisothiocyanate (PEITC) is produced by Brassica food plants. PEO is a <b>P</b>EITC <b>E</b>ssential <b>O</b>il containing >95% natural PEITC. PEITC is known to produce various health benefits but its effect in alleviation of ulcerative colitis signs is unknown.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In two efficacy studies (acute and chronic) oral administration of PEO was effective at remitting acute and chronic signs of ulcerative colitis (UC) in mice. Disease activity, histology and biochemical characteristics were measured in the treated animals and were compared with appropriate controls. PEO treatment significantly improved body weights and stool consistency as well as decreased intestinal bleeding. PEO treatment also reduced mucosal inflammation, depletion of goblet cells and infiltration of inflammatory cells. Attenuation of proinflammatory interleukin1β production was observed in the colons of PEO-treated animals. Expression analyses were also carried out for immune function related genes, transcription factors and cytokines in lipopolysaccharide-activated mouse macrophage cells. PEO likely affects an intricate network of immune signaling genes including a novel concentration dependent reduction of total cellular Signal Transducer and Activator of Transcription 1 (STAT1) as well as nuclear phosphorylated-STAT1 (activated form of STAT1). A PEO-concentration dependent decrease of mRNA of C-X-C motif ligand 10 (a STAT1 responsive chemokine) and Interleukin 6 were also observed.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>PEO might be a promising candidate to develop as a treatment for ulcerative colitis patients. The disease attenuation by PEO is likely associated with suppression of activation of STAT1 transcription and inhibition of pro-inflammatory cytokines.</p

Development and Functional Analysis of Novel Genetic Promoters Using DNA Shuffling, Hybridization and a Combination Thereof

BACKGROUND: Development of novel synthetic promoters with enhanced regulatory activity is of great value for a diverse range of plant biotechnology applications. METHODOLOGY: Using the Figwort mosaic virus full-length transcript promoter (F) and the sub-genomic transcript promoter (FS) sequences, we generated two single shuffled promoter libraries (LssF and LssFS), two multiple shuffled promoter libraries (LmsFS-F and LmsF-FS), two hybrid promoters (FuasFScp and FSuasFcp) and two hybrid-shuffled promoter libraries (LhsFuasFScp and LhsFSuasFcp). Transient expression activities of approximately 50 shuffled promoter clones from each of these libraries were assayed in tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum cv. Xanthi) protoplasts. It was observed that most of the shuffled promoters showed reduced activity compared to the two parent promoters (F and FS) and the CaMV35S promoter. In silico studies (computer simulated analyses) revealed that the reduced promoter activities of the shuffled promoters could be due to their higher helical stability. On the contrary, the hybrid promoters FuasFScp and FSuasFcp showed enhanced activities compared to F, FS and CaMV 35S in both transient and transgenic Nicotiana tabacum and Arabidopsis plants. Northern-blot and qRT-PCR data revealed a positive correlation between transcription and enzymatic activity in transgenic tobacco plants expressing hybrid promoters. Histochemical/X-gluc staining of whole transgenic seedlings/tissue-sections and fluorescence images of ImaGene Green™ treated roots and stems expressing the GUS reporter gene under the control of the FuasFScp and FSuasFcp promoters also support the above findings. Furthermore, protein extracts made from protoplasts expressing the human defensin (HNP-1) gene driven by hybrid promoters showed enhanced antibacterial activity compared to the CaMV35S promoter. SIGNIFICANCE/CONCLUSION: Both shuffled and hybrid promoters developed in the present study can be used as molecular tools to study the regulation of ectopic gene expression in plants

Biophysical and electrochemical studies of protein-nucleic acid interactions

This review is devoted to biophysical and electrochemical methods used for studying protein-nucleic acid (NA) interactions. The importance of NA structure and protein-NA recognition for essential cellular processes, such as replication or transcription, is discussed to provide background for description of a range of biophysical chemistry methods that are applied to study a wide scope of protein-DNA and protein-RNA complexes. These techniques employ different detection principles with specific advantages and limitations and are often combined as mutually complementary approaches to provide a complete description of the interactions. Electrochemical methods have proven to be of great utility in such studies because they provide sensitive measurements and can be combined with other approaches that facilitate the protein-NA interactions. Recent applications of electrochemical methods in studies of protein-NA interactions are discussed in detail